2016 NFL Playoffs Championship Weekend
Warm ups: Week 8 we went ATS 7-6-1; Week 16 ATS 5-1
Wild Card Week
We took all the road teams ATS and SU. Lines have been updated to reflect game time pricing as per oddsshark.com. Line shift: PIT@CIN opened +1 and was a -1.5 game time favorite which covered.
KC 30 -3 @ HOU 0 ATS 1-0; SU 1-0
PIT 18 -1.5 @ CIN 16 ATS 2-0; SU 2-0
SEA 10 -4.5 @ MIN 9 ATS 2-1; SU 3-0
GB 35 +1.5 @ WAS 18 ATS 3-1; SU 4-0
ATS 3-1 and SU 4-0; Not a bad start to the playoffs
A first in NFL history, all four playoff road teams won. Only SEA did not cover.
Divisional
KC 20 +6 @ NE 27 ATS 0-1; SU 0-1
GB 20 @ ARZ 26 -7 ATS 0-2; SU 1-1
SEA 24 +2.5 @ CAR 31 ATS 0-3; SU 1-2
PIT 16 @ DEN 23 -6.5 ATS 1-3; SU 2-2
ATS 4-4 and SU 6-2; stinkin it up vs the spread.
All of the wild card road winners were on the road for a 2nd straight week as dogs. Rolled the dice on KC and SEA, big mistake as all four home favorites won outright and only ARZ did not cover.
Championship
NE -3.5 @ DEN OU 44.5
Weather: 40 and rain. Last time out, NE 24 @ DEN 30 as Bunco backup QB Ostweiler matched Brady stat for stat while managing to pull one out with an 87yd TD drive with 2:33 in reg and 57yd TD on their 1st drive in OT. 13-4 DEN dominated 13-4 NE in 1stD 23-16; Rushyds 179-39; Plays 74-58; TOP 37-26.
In YPC and YPA; DEN has the defense, while NE has the aerial attack and no ground game.
NE D rush #8, pass #11; DEN D rush #1; pass #1
DEN O rush #13 pass #21; NE O rush #29; pass #7
When it comes to Uncle TOM: Pats take care of the ball while the Buncos cough it up.
NE +7 #1 14 offensive TO's; #22 21 defensive takeaways
DEN -4 #29 31 offensive TO's; #8 27 defensive takeaways
Notable Last Week: DEN O couldn't close; NE O couldn't run and their D was porous.
DEN vs PIT 5 FG's; 1TD; 339 pass yds allowed. NO turnovers, one takeaway.
NE vs KC, Pat D allowed 27 1stD; 135 rush yds; 246 pass yds; TOP 38; while on offense a paltry 38 rush yds on 14 attempts. NO turnovers, one takeaway.
DEN Strength of schedule +2.1; NE -2.4. On a neutral field, the Pats would be a -1 favorite. Buncos get +4 for home turf, this means DEN should be a -3 fav. NE is favored by -3.5, that's a 6.5 point swing the book has taken toward the Pats. Why??
The Pat-riots must throw, because they can't run, especially against the DEN D. The Broncos should be able to run, pass and hold the rock. If Uncle TOM doesn't bite the Buncos, they are at home as a severely underpriced +3.5 dog. Why should this game turn out any different than last time?
Since 2001, in the Pat-riots 66 losses only 4 teams have beaten them consecutively in the same season, 05 DEN, 06 IND, 11 NYG, 13 BAL for a 6% DEN victory chance. FYI, 3 of those teams won the SB. So we split the difference. Pick NE SU and DEN ATS +3.5
ARZ @ CAR -3 OU 47.5
Weather: 36 and clear. Last year in a wild card game, ARZ 16 @ CAR 27 as Zona played with a 3rd string QB. This year 14-3 ARZ QB Carson Palmer is healthy and ready to throw at the 16-1 Panthers who are without their two starting CB's.
In YPC and YPA: Zona is balanced, while the Panthers grind it out and throw if they must.
ARZ D rush #9; pass #9; CAR D rush #2; pass #7
CAR O rush #10; pass #10; ARZ O rush #12; pass #1
When it comes to Uncle TOM: Both defenses are aggressive and opportunistic.
ARZ +9 #17 24 offensive TO's; #2 33 defensive takeaways
CAR +20 #8 19 offensive TO's; #1 39 defensive takeaways
Notable Last Week: ARZ O struggled while CAR D was porous and O ground it out.
ARZ vs GB: Card offense allowed 3 sacks, 2 Turnovers and rushed for 40 yds on 19 att.
CAR vs SEA: Panther D allowed 78yds rushing on 12 att; 366yds passing on 48 att. with 5 sacks and 2 TO's (1 pick six). The O passed for 161yds on 22 att.; 144 yds rushing on 44 att. with 35 mins TOP and NO turnovers.
ARZ Strength of schedule +1.3; CAR -3.9. On a neutral field, the Cards would be a -4 favorite. CAR gets +4 for home turf, meaning this game should be a pick em and the Panthers seem overpriced at -3. Defense and solid running games WIN championships, especially at home. A rematch of the 2003 SB in SB 50. Pick SU and ATS CAR -3
Wild Card Week
We took all the road teams ATS and SU. Lines have been updated to reflect game time pricing as per oddsshark.com. Line shift: PIT@CIN opened +1 and was a -1.5 game time favorite which covered.
KC 30 -3 @ HOU 0 ATS 1-0; SU 1-0
PIT 18 -1.5 @ CIN 16 ATS 2-0; SU 2-0
SEA 10 -4.5 @ MIN 9 ATS 2-1; SU 3-0
GB 35 +1.5 @ WAS 18 ATS 3-1; SU 4-0
ATS 3-1 and SU 4-0; Not a bad start to the playoffs
A first in NFL history, all four playoff road teams won. Only SEA did not cover.
Divisional
KC 20 +6 @ NE 27 ATS 0-1; SU 0-1
GB 20 @ ARZ 26 -7 ATS 0-2; SU 1-1
SEA 24 +2.5 @ CAR 31 ATS 0-3; SU 1-2
PIT 16 @ DEN 23 -6.5 ATS 1-3; SU 2-2
ATS 4-4 and SU 6-2; stinkin it up vs the spread.
All of the wild card road winners were on the road for a 2nd straight week as dogs. Rolled the dice on KC and SEA, big mistake as all four home favorites won outright and only ARZ did not cover.
Championship
NE -3.5 @ DEN OU 44.5
Weather: 40 and rain. Last time out, NE 24 @ DEN 30 as Bunco backup QB Ostweiler matched Brady stat for stat while managing to pull one out with an 87yd TD drive with 2:33 in reg and 57yd TD on their 1st drive in OT. 13-4 DEN dominated 13-4 NE in 1stD 23-16; Rushyds 179-39; Plays 74-58; TOP 37-26.
In YPC and YPA; DEN has the defense, while NE has the aerial attack and no ground game.
NE D rush #8, pass #11; DEN D rush #1; pass #1
DEN O rush #13 pass #21; NE O rush #29; pass #7
When it comes to Uncle TOM: Pats take care of the ball while the Buncos cough it up.
NE +7 #1 14 offensive TO's; #22 21 defensive takeaways
DEN -4 #29 31 offensive TO's; #8 27 defensive takeaways
Notable Last Week: DEN O couldn't close; NE O couldn't run and their D was porous.
DEN vs PIT 5 FG's; 1TD; 339 pass yds allowed. NO turnovers, one takeaway.
NE vs KC, Pat D allowed 27 1stD; 135 rush yds; 246 pass yds; TOP 38; while on offense a paltry 38 rush yds on 14 attempts. NO turnovers, one takeaway.
DEN Strength of schedule +2.1; NE -2.4. On a neutral field, the Pats would be a -1 favorite. Buncos get +4 for home turf, this means DEN should be a -3 fav. NE is favored by -3.5, that's a 6.5 point swing the book has taken toward the Pats. Why??
The Pat-riots must throw, because they can't run, especially against the DEN D. The Broncos should be able to run, pass and hold the rock. If Uncle TOM doesn't bite the Buncos, they are at home as a severely underpriced +3.5 dog. Why should this game turn out any different than last time?
Since 2001, in the Pat-riots 66 losses only 4 teams have beaten them consecutively in the same season, 05 DEN, 06 IND, 11 NYG, 13 BAL for a 6% DEN victory chance. FYI, 3 of those teams won the SB. So we split the difference. Pick NE SU and DEN ATS +3.5
ARZ @ CAR -3 OU 47.5
Weather: 36 and clear. Last year in a wild card game, ARZ 16 @ CAR 27 as Zona played with a 3rd string QB. This year 14-3 ARZ QB Carson Palmer is healthy and ready to throw at the 16-1 Panthers who are without their two starting CB's.
In YPC and YPA: Zona is balanced, while the Panthers grind it out and throw if they must.
ARZ D rush #9; pass #9; CAR D rush #2; pass #7
CAR O rush #10; pass #10; ARZ O rush #12; pass #1
When it comes to Uncle TOM: Both defenses are aggressive and opportunistic.
ARZ +9 #17 24 offensive TO's; #2 33 defensive takeaways
CAR +20 #8 19 offensive TO's; #1 39 defensive takeaways
Notable Last Week: ARZ O struggled while CAR D was porous and O ground it out.
ARZ vs GB: Card offense allowed 3 sacks, 2 Turnovers and rushed for 40 yds on 19 att.
CAR vs SEA: Panther D allowed 78yds rushing on 12 att; 366yds passing on 48 att. with 5 sacks and 2 TO's (1 pick six). The O passed for 161yds on 22 att.; 144 yds rushing on 44 att. with 35 mins TOP and NO turnovers.
ARZ Strength of schedule +1.3; CAR -3.9. On a neutral field, the Cards would be a -4 favorite. CAR gets +4 for home turf, meaning this game should be a pick em and the Panthers seem overpriced at -3. Defense and solid running games WIN championships, especially at home. A rematch of the 2003 SB in SB 50. Pick SU and ATS CAR -3
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