Mad Natterings 02/06/16
Odds to win Democratic Nomination: Hillary Clinton .72, Bernie Sanders .30 and Joe Biden .06 - I like Bernie as a long shot, what if they can unify?
Odds to win Republican Nomination: Marco Rubio .54, Donald Trump .31, and Ted Cruz .17 - Rubio/Cruz to crush THE Donald and attempt to garner the Coconut vote.
As the selloff and widening CDS in banking continues, Credit Suisse chalking up their first loss since 2008, Toshiba their largest in 140 years. Nothing is wrong, all is well, stay calm and carry on.
Ubiquitous Ubiquiti? UBNT - +18% No surprise on Ubiquity as they have excellent telemetry and a solid company. Go long.
LinkedIn Unlinking - LNKD -27% No surprise as Linked In's line community interface from a job seeker perspective is somewhat decent, but from a networking or social media standpoint - it pretty much blows. Go short.
GoPRO Going Down - GPRO -9% several similar knockoffs have hit the market, priced anywhere from $250 down to $40. And those models have a LCD viewfinder up to 2". IMHO, like TSLA this is really a turkey in eagles feathers, that will probably get shot down in flames. Go short.
Florida Governor declares Zika emergency - There is no vaccine to prevent or specific medicine to treat Zika infections. Zika is not usually fatal, it is communicable through blood via mosquito or sex, 1 in 5 develop the symptoms, similar to dengue, yellow fever and chikungunya, and it lasts about a week. Avian flu had more potential that Zika. Thsi is business as usual in the 3rd world with birth defects and deaths from a lack of potable water far exceeding Zika's threat, so whats' the big deal all about? Maybe its time to go long on mosquito repellent (Spectrum Brands SPB) and abatement or genetically engineered deterrents - Intrexon (XON) who is acquiring Oxitec.
Baltic Dry Index - New all time low 298 - 50% below the previous record lows. The global economy is robust. "Consider every prior drop in the Baltic Dry Index down to the 500-600 level. Each time, the index immediately jumped as if latent demand was just waiting for those lower prices. That development has not yet occurred this time around, even as prices are reaching 45% below the previous record low."
Amidst GLUT, Jeffries and others question the mining rally: “These short-term players will sell as quickly as they bought.”
Two faced T. Boone? T. Boone Pickens says oil is going to double, four days later he liquidates all his oil holdings. "“I will not re-enter, I’m sure, until we start to draw on inventories,” Pickens said. “That’s a key point.” I thought the key point was, they were going to double? Or not.
Two faced T. Boone? T. Boone Pickens says oil is going to double, four days later he liquidates all his oil holdings. "“I will not re-enter, I’m sure, until we start to draw on inventories,” Pickens said. “That’s a key point.” I thought the key point was, they were going to double? Or not.
Latent demand should be jumping at these price levels, yet it is not and Two Faced T. Boone liquidates holdings that will "double"? In 2016, the effect of debt on growth has turned negative. When debt increases in real terms and real assets fall in value, leveraged balance sheets turn toxic. Many products priced assuming future earnings and price growth may have to be repriced. Now that misguided monetary policy had failed, balance sheet's that were designed for the econometric falsity of 2% inflation may not work.
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