No Future?
Over at a financial forum...
StJL commented:
"I think that there is an argument to be made that the impact on the markets will not be directly proportional to the impact that China will have on our economy....
but the size of the US consumer market would have a much, much larger impact on the world economy should we hit a major speed bump like China!
The danger could be in currencies should they decide to devaluate some more and strengthen the dollar.
But I am guessing that they realize that a recession in the US would probably compound their problem!"
P commented: "Japan shows that the US and ECB and probably China can go way more in debt without breaking "
We Natter: China being the large consumer they are, can greatly effect input prices, witness what happened with the inflation of this bubble and what is happening with the deflation of this bubble. Their currency manipulation will likely contribute to the dollar shooting the moon.
Here is the media narrative of the day: Falling prices, weak spending, exports slowing (partners slowing), investment postponed, inventories building. Why worry? Now the reality...
If Japan isn't producing because China isn't buying and China isn't producing because nobody is buying, not even the Chinese, that hardly leads back to a "robust" US economy with a "minor manufacturing problem". Japan, China, Brazil, Europe, US, manufacturing is falling off a cliff and its not because the steel workers have been locked out since August 15th... not in the news, right?
The issue is, and has been, all that imagined "demand" has vaporized, because that "demand" was smoke and mirrors as in blown out of proportion to start with, like the SPECULATIVE bubble that it is.
Looking at Japan, IS looking at our potential future, as in NONE. Japan is quite DEAD, massive doses of QE have killed the patient. All one need do is look at charts of their industrial production, real household income and spending to see the RIGOR MORTIS caused by decades of QE and Abenomics. Europe is about to code, and we are a reanimated zombie of our former self, eviscerated, emasculated and outsourced. The remaining live and still kicking one, China, about to explode from its own gluttony and greed. Johnny Rotten may have nailed it, as in NO FUTURE.
The point is we are like frogs in a slowly heated pot, we never recovered, we are in a recession, the water is about to start boiling, its about to get worse starting Q4 2015 and we have no durable economic base to fall back on. Its all been outsourced. Its a concomitant confluence and synergy, all global economies if they have not already, are about to hit that sleeping policeman (speed bump) at full speed and the proverbial shit is going to hit the fan.
Our economy IS the exportation or sale of bonds (debt), equities (futures) and the dollar. So when all stock markets blow, and after the dollar has run through them (THE DEBT) and commodities like a raped ape, better hope our government debt (that highly sought after liquid collateral) and whats left of the dollar hold ups.
It might, as much as we are tattered and soiled, and are about to be turned upside down and shaken until every penny drops out of our pockets, then kicked silly six ways to Sunday, we will still be the least dirty shirt in the hamper. And you really won't want to see what the other guys are going to look like when this is over.
StJL commented:
"I think that there is an argument to be made that the impact on the markets will not be directly proportional to the impact that China will have on our economy....
but the size of the US consumer market would have a much, much larger impact on the world economy should we hit a major speed bump like China!
The danger could be in currencies should they decide to devaluate some more and strengthen the dollar.
But I am guessing that they realize that a recession in the US would probably compound their problem!"
P commented: "Japan shows that the US and ECB and probably China can go way more in debt without breaking "
We Natter: China being the large consumer they are, can greatly effect input prices, witness what happened with the inflation of this bubble and what is happening with the deflation of this bubble. Their currency manipulation will likely contribute to the dollar shooting the moon.
Here is the media narrative of the day: Falling prices, weak spending, exports slowing (partners slowing), investment postponed, inventories building. Why worry? Now the reality...
If Japan isn't producing because China isn't buying and China isn't producing because nobody is buying, not even the Chinese, that hardly leads back to a "robust" US economy with a "minor manufacturing problem". Japan, China, Brazil, Europe, US, manufacturing is falling off a cliff and its not because the steel workers have been locked out since August 15th... not in the news, right?
The issue is, and has been, all that imagined "demand" has vaporized, because that "demand" was smoke and mirrors as in blown out of proportion to start with, like the SPECULATIVE bubble that it is.
Looking at Japan, IS looking at our potential future, as in NONE. Japan is quite DEAD, massive doses of QE have killed the patient. All one need do is look at charts of their industrial production, real household income and spending to see the RIGOR MORTIS caused by decades of QE and Abenomics. Europe is about to code, and we are a reanimated zombie of our former self, eviscerated, emasculated and outsourced. The remaining live and still kicking one, China, about to explode from its own gluttony and greed. Johnny Rotten may have nailed it, as in NO FUTURE.
Our economy IS the exportation or sale of bonds (debt), equities (futures) and the dollar. So when all stock markets blow, and after the dollar has run through them (THE DEBT) and commodities like a raped ape, better hope our government debt (that highly sought after liquid collateral) and whats left of the dollar hold ups.
It might, as much as we are tattered and soiled, and are about to be turned upside down and shaken until every penny drops out of our pockets, then kicked silly six ways to Sunday, we will still be the least dirty shirt in the hamper. And you really won't want to see what the other guys are going to look like when this is over.
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