The Silence of The Hogs

Over at a financial forum - P - "Hell, if 80% of the people bought SPY on Tuesday when teams with bird names won Monday Night Football – we'd factor that in too – and it would be just as stupid!  The real money is made in observing the moves that are simply wrong and betting against the "trend."

The Nattering One muses...  Bird names, LMAO and how right P is.  Warning: reading further could advance your knowledge base, do so at your own peril.  Even if you don't like football, the financial and investing lessons to be learned in the life experience presented is well worth your time and consideration, IMHO.

Generally, whenever the public bets heavy on one side, go the other way especially if you can get points.  But when you KNOW their WRONG, that's when you slaughter and silence the pigs, or in this case, the Hogs...  

Sherman set the waybac machine for the peak of our civilization, January 1984...  Super Bowl XVIII - LA Raiders +3 vs Washington Redskins - In addition to being tight with a silver and black LB's sister (RM) and CB's brother (OMK), I had been "working the backstretch" at the Raiders El Segundo training facility.  

Aside from having the best man cover cornerback duo in the NFL, the Raiders had in order, stick-em, smack, swagger and lots of speed.  When the Raiders won 6 of their last 7, and the lone loss at home to the Cards was a designated nap sandwiched between the two Charger games, I KNEW the Raiders were a closer to bet the farm on.

The Redskins were a media "juggernaut" who had crawled out of the NFC title game vs the Niners with their tail tween their legs. The Skins were gifted their Super Bowl defense on a last second field goal set up via some absurd pass interference calls on three non catchable passes thrown away to the sidelines in order to avoid being sacked. How bad were those calls?  As a result of that game, the rules were changed, as in, those infractions would later be made non offenses by the rules committee. 

I was not impressed with the media darling Skins and getting Redskin fans, who had been drinking the kool-aid since the prior "Strike Bowl" victory and throughout the year, to bet straight up on their team was easier than taking candy from a baby. However, the deafening East Coast MSM bias had even made some Raider fans doubting Thomases. The analytics I was using at the time, indicated a very high probability of a 27-10 Raider victory. Coupled with my intuition and what I KNEW from "working the track", this unique situation presented a contrarian opportunity. 

Those kinds of opportunities necessitate unconventional thinking, ways and means. In order to get Raider faithful to bet against their own team, I gave all the way up to +13 Redskins and took them all in.  I would start at even and work my way up. Most bit when I said, I will give you the Skins +13, the response was, "so the Raiders have to win by two touchdowns? Your f-ing nuts, yeah I'll take your money. You better pay up Monday."  Not to worry, I KNEW the game was a mismatch made in heaven.

The pre game show on CBS exposed another individual who KNEW something.  Jimmy "The Greek" Snyder, came on drunk already celebrating his bet.  Burnt Cheeseburger asked, "So Greek will we have much of a game today?"  The Greek laughed his head off then slurred: "Not much of a game today, Brent".  Cheeseburger with a quizzical look towards the camera: "So you think the Redskins will be hoisting the Lombardi Trophy later today?"  Snyder slumped over and almost fell out of his chair laughing, drink in hand. 

Cheeseburger comically looking relieved: "So not much of a chance for the Raiders today eh Greek?"  The Greek bellowed: "NOOOOO! Brent. This isn't going to be much of a game because the Raiders have too much team speed for the Redskins."  Cheeseburger's head swivels towards Irv Cross as they both exhibit a deer caught in the headlights look.  

Cheeseburger: "But Greek, the Redskins have been nothing less than awesome in setting an NFL scoring record this season" (which stood another 14 seasons). The Greek: "Its not just team speed Brent, the aggressiveness of the Raiders cornerbacks will be the key. Those Raider corners Hayes and Haynes are going to be all over the Redskin wide receivers Brown and Monk, like white on rice."

Cheeseburger sporting his MSM parrot food and kool-aid diet: "But Greek, Theismann, Monk, Brown, Riggo and the Hogs have scored 541 points this season. "  The Greek laughing: "Brent, what they've done up till now doesn't matter today.  The Raider's man coverage at the corners throws a blanket over the Redskins ability to stretch the field. That will free up the Raider safeties and linebackers to concentrate on disrupting Riggo and the Hogs blocking schemes. The Raiders are simply too fast, aggressive, intimidating, and today's game is a clear mismatch."

Cheeseburger looking completely flummoxed and showing his growing frustration: "Greek, I know the Raiders are good, but I can't imagine them walking all over a 14-2 team like the defending SB champion Redskins. So what is your prediction?"  The Greek with a shit eating grin: "Like I said Brent, this won't be much of a game. The Raiders will win and its gonna be over by the half."  

Irv Cross's eyes were bigger than a one eyed cat in a fish market as Cheeseburger shook his head incredulously and panned to the camera: "Well fans, I guess we can all say you heard it here first.  We will check back with the Greek at the half to see how his prediction is going."

The first TD at 4:52 of Q1 was confirmation of the obvious. In punt block formation, Derrick Jensen #31, Captain of the Raiders special teams lined up in front of RB Otis Wonsley, who was blocking the center A gap at left tackle.  At the snap of the ball, leaving Wonsley flatfooted, Jensen darted inside the A gap and blocked Jeff Hayes punt which was recovered in the end zone for a Raider TD; 7-0 and they had set the tone for the game.

With 12 seconds left in the half, instead of sitting on a 14-3 deficit, the Redskins decided to get cute as QB Theismann's threw a screen pass from the Redskin 12 yard line. This "deja vu" added insult to injury, as earlier in the year the Redskins had burned the Raiders on a similar play in that very situation.  The Raider's Asst. Coach Charlie Summer remembered and anticipated by inserting defensive pass specialist LB #58 Jack Squirek for LB #55 Matt Millen.  The ill advised screen pass was quickly cashed in for a pick six by the lurking Squirek, providing an accent on a dominating half by giving the Raiders a commanding 21-3 lead.  

As he ate a double serving of crow and humble pie during the halftime show, the look on Cheeseburger's face was worth every penny Snyder had bet on the Raiders. Marcus Allen's Q3 reversal of field and speed burst for a 74 yd TD was the exclamation point on a 38-9 Raider massacre of the vaunted Redskins.  The Greek was conspicuously absent on the post game show, having excused himself to enjoy a locker room toast with Al Davis and the Raiders who had just made him $25K richer. 

For moi the kicker was, the most satisfying bet I made was not just for money. Taking a larger risk when what should only have been +13, became +17 as I stripped bare one guys prized mustache and another guys full beard.  They were best friends and the pair of them had not been seen without facial hair since puberty.  Both swore they would never shave their mug clean under any circumstance.  Quite the scene when they walked into work that Monday.  Jaws dropped as both, sporting a clean shaven puss that was smooth as a baby's bottom, made a beeline for me to hand over the dough. 

They both shook my hand and admitted, "When Allen ran for that TD, I called him up and asked what are we going to do? He said, looks like its time to bust out the shaving cream and razors. You wiseguy, your crazy like a fox, we never would have thought the Raiders could win like that against the Redskins and you got us to bet our money and mugs against our own team." Grinning like The Greek, I said tongue in cheek: For certain Redskins bettors tis better to be skinned than scalped?  Shaking their heads they promptly went and hid in their offices for the rest of the month. Simply satisfying.

So what are the moral's of the story? Exerting due diligence, research, information and intimate knowledge along with intuition can pay off big. Applying moxie with un-common sense and street smarts will beat mainstream thinking and book smarts most any time. Simply dedicated.

When you KNOW something, take full advantage and execute with extreme prejudice to achieve your goal. Stick to your guns, even when other less informed "experts" are incredulous, or people think "your crazy".  Your outside the box thinking and conviction will pay off like The Greeks and mine did, while the "hook in mouth" and doubters stand around incredulous, eat crow and wonder why?  Simply delicious.

Terms and timing are everything. No matter how seemingly absurd, never be afraid to ask or negotiate conditions. If you don't ask, you don't know.  With the right terms and timing you can get just about anyone to do the unexpected in a negotiation.  Especially conventional thinkers and clueless turncoats with no conviction, gotta love em. Simply divine.

And finally, from The Synthetic Matrix: "I try to stick to the things I somewhat know; banking, monetary policy and the "dollar". I leave the options, futures portfolio hedging, straddles, collars, spreads and capital preservation to my friend (P). Why? Because that subject matter is in his wheelhouse and thus, he is the SME (subject matter expert) in that field. Long ago in a defensive posture, my friend (P) recommended "go to cash", we concurred and still do, because he is the SME and "Doctor" as it were."

Not unlike Jimmy "The Greek", P "The SME" is trying to preach and teach everybody the dedicated, delicious and divine aspects listed above.  As you can't find them in just any book, on just any street corner or learn them sitting in just any seat, take heed of his un-common sense and hear the wisdom of his words. Simply priceless. Out.

Highlights of Super Bowl XVIII.