2017 NFL Championship Sunday Results Against The Spread

Results For Championship Sunday

How did we do? So far in this tournament... 

Wildcard  2-2 SU; 0-3-1 ATS
Divisional 2-2 SU; 3-1 ATS; lox 1-1
Champ     1-1 SU; 1-1 ATS; lox 0-1

We celebrated our regular season finishing 5 games ahead of the nearest expert with a ATS record of 146-103-7; lox 48-28-2. Post season 5-5 SU; 4-5-1 ATS; lox 1-2; YTD ATS 150-108-8 with lox at 49-30-2. 

At a respectable 7-3 ATS post season, the only one who could have caught us at 148-110-7 was Case Keefer at the Las Vegas Sun. With a two game lead and 1 game left, game over and once again...



SUN 3:05PM EST CBS

JAX +10.5 20 @ 24 NE 

In NE games which were close or they lost, opponents passed for 240+, while running for 100+ yds, and won TOP or # of plays (CAR). Can the Shags? Perhaps, as they did so in 6 of their wins this year, with only 1 close LAC 20-17. 

Bortles and the Shags O held the rock and met all requirements: TOP 35 vs 25; plays 71 vs 61; net 374, pass 23-36 273yds; rush 101; 3DC 6-15; RZ 2-2; No TO's.

The D held NE to 344 net, 46 rush, 3DC 3-12, 1st conversion with 9 mins left in Q3, RZ 3-4, forcing 1 TO for a +1 TOM.

Its not The Pharaohs hand the Pats need to worry about, it's his Waddle, Achilles heel and a bad case of Cough-lin (5-2 vs Belichick including 2 Super Bowl victories).

Waddle was out, Fleming started and finished at RT, Gronkowski was knocked out late 1st half with a concussion, what more could the Shags ask for?  Leading 20-10 with 12 mins remaining, how did the Shags lose?  

Two 4th quarter TD drives by the Pats took the lead for good with 2:48 remaining.  But there's more to the story...

With a 14-3 lead, 2:23 remain 1st half, on 3rd and 7 from the Pat 44, a 12 yd gain for a Jag 1st down at the NE 32, is negated by a mysteriously delayed, delay of game penalty.

After a 3rd and long fail, the Jags punted to the Pats who drove 85 yds for a TD, with 32 of those yards gifted on a dubious pass interference call. Halftime 14-10.

Trailing 20-10, 12:03 remain in Q4, the Pats embark on an 85 yd TD drive, including a 3rd and 18 conversion in which the stuff of legends are born. One must give credit where due.

Trailing 20-17, 6:21 remain in Q4, the Pats start a failed drive from their 19, in which another dubious pass interference call advances their cause 36 yds to the Jag 45.  

The resulting Pats punt pins in the Jags at their own 10.  Four downs later, the Jags punt from their own end zone, which Amendola fields at the 50 and returns to the Jag 30. The above circumstances led to a short field 30 yd TD drive to seal the victory.

Interesting codicil, in 18 games the Jaguars were flagged for defensive pass interference, drum roll please... only seven times for 59 yards.

Not unlike A Zebra's Taint?, Part 1, Part 2 and tomorrow's conclusion Part 3, there are things that make you go hmm? which rest assured, we will be Nattering about later this week. 

SUN 6:40PM EST FOX

MIN -2.5 7 @ 38 PHI  UNDER 39.5 LOCK

If last weeks 2nd half shutout Eagles D who can stop the run show up, Keenum will be forced to the air and despite RT Rashod Hill's issues, have to deliver.

After a 1st possession TD by the Vikes, a real waxing as the Eagle D hung a goose egg on the Norsemen, while forcing 3 TO's.  Road teams in the playoffs with -2 TOM, 5-54, less than a 9% chance of winning.  Those with -3 TOM?, a perfect 0-43.

Foles and his pack of barking canines, held up their end of the deal in leading Philly to 38 unanswered points, and the promised land with TOP 34 vs 26, 456 net, 110 rush, 3DC 10-14, RZ 2-2, 1 sack allowed.

In trying to throw those dogs a bone, we Nattered yesterday...

The Eagles led the NFL in QB pressures = hits, sacks, hurries, grounding, holding pen. for 287 pressures, 19 more than the Jaguars, who were next closest defense. All told, the Cheese Steaks produced pressure on 40.8% of their pass defense snaps, the highest rate league wide. 

A Q1 50 yd pick six, and Q2 forced fumble inside the Eagle 25 accentuated an excellent defensive effort holding the Stone Skol Stunners to 333 net, 70 rush, 4DC 0-2, RZ 0-3.

With their offense seemingly once again out of the pound, in two weeks the dog headed Eagles will be a dog thrice, in facing the Patriots in SB LII. A redux of SB XXXIX?  TBD.

Doggy style? In this tournament the dogs are 5-5 SU and 9-1 ATS with NE vs TEN, being the only favorite to cover.  As for those dog eared Philly Cheese Steaks...

 

Resources

Spread courtesy of VegasInsider, OddsShark, Covers, and the Westgate Advance Line here and here.

One can find the advance line for week 2- 8 of the season, courtesy of John Morgan at PatsFan.

Although the line differs on occasion from the links above, try Jeff Sherman's Twitter feed, he is the manager of the Westgate Super Book.

As we enjoy his commentary, humor and interesting observations, Walter Cherepinsky at NESN has weekly in depth analysis of each game.

For excellent insight, we recommend referring to Case Keefer at the Las Vegas Sun.

Stats and ATS (Against The Spread) courtesy of the indispensable Pro Football Reference

Additional stats and graphics courtesy of Sharp Football Stats