Dark Side of The Moon? Part 2

Continuing Dark Side of The Moon?...

Increases in ROC (total checkable 1st half 2016 and large deposits Q3 2017) coupled with a declining ROC in total savings, would have increased the ratio of available or spendable cash to savings. 

Translated, draw down and transfer of savings to checkable, more spending, generating an increase in transactions velocity.

What could have caused this? Did the economy reach escape velocity?  Did somebody get a significant raise in inflation adjusted terms?  Is it happy days again?

Wrong on all counts economoron breath, as all economic numbers reflecting AD (aggregate demand) and production (post hurricane boost) are muted, and pointing down with regard to real wage increases, so what gives with all the head fakes?

Above, witness the concomitant post flash crash rise of oil Feb 2016 to present - $25 to $75 per barrel.

Taken at face value, the increase in transaction velocity was confused by economorons as a healthy sign, when it was anything but. 

Sad reality, no real (inflation adjusted) wage increases, rising cost of living, $25 to $75 on oil, gotta pay more for the necessities, more spending to make ends meet, consumer draw down on savings, transferring needed cash to checkable accounts.

Moving West... with long term monetary flows halving by year end, additional Fed raises, and reductions in their portfolio (continued tapering in bond purchases), will we see another commodities flash crash as seen above, June 2014 - Feb 2016? 

The NDX and RUT hit new peaks late last week, meanwhile oil reacted off its recent peak at $75, down big -5% on Monday.

Aside from the 5th inflection point (between now and Aug 1st), can't see much in the way of this market, which is anything but reflective of the real economy.  

Anything to look forward to? The end of September when Q end turn premium and a substantial reduction in long term flows should bring a liquidity crunch.  

For clues, keep an eye on China devaluing viz. RMB vs $; and carry trade to generate needed dollars viz. JPY vs $.

Interesting codicil: The misread on velocity wasn't bad enough, to make matters worse, with the hook in mouth MSM Trump-eting a scripted narrative of recovery... 

The FOMC or FED has become drunk on their own punch and confused the resulting increase in stagflation, as a healthy (economic expansion and wage driven) variety of inflation and meriting Federal Funds Rate increases.  

An excuse? To get off the zero bound so that when the shit really hits the fan, the CB's can lower again to bail out the house of finance?

With ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) resulting in NIRP (negative interest rate policy) the central bankers lowered too far for too long, and they know it.  And if they don't... 

Perhaps a bit of brain damage, ending in an eclipse, would be apropos.