Stagflation: Dead?
"I believe its return [stagflation] is imminent.... Wages are going up... So the decade-long hiatus on compensation increases is over, and will show up in the numbers later this year...." - Inflation Hysteria based commentaryNominal wages always increase = "stock". It is REAL wages adjusted for inflation that are where the rubber meets the road, and those nominal increases can be translated into purchasing power, PCE spending and aggregate demand = "flow" potential.
Of late... REAL WEEKLY and HOURLY earnings growth, declining since Aug 2015, with growth rates far below 2009
Ditto for Median usual weekly REAL earnings declining since 2015 and falling into NEGATIVE growth Q4:2017
Long term... with real wages [generously cpi-u adjusted] rising a paltry 10% since 1973, for +0.2% annual gains in buying power, and GDP growth in the toilet since, it's not a return of stagflation I am worried about, because its been a fact of life for quite some time.
One can only HOPE in the extreme, that those anecdotes, and transitory post hurricane blips, which are already subsiding, will actually translate NOT into McJobs minimum wage increases, but meaningful and substantial real inflation adjusted wage gains later this year.
Because if so, then the stagflation we have suffered for decades, will finally be slain, we will achieve the promised land of economic escape velocity.
Many will cheerfully applaud over ol Stag-nations grave, myself included while flossing with tasty crow feathers. This is one where I would LOVE to be wrong, trust me, but I'm not.
Comments
It was all over by the end of the 70's. Secular strangulation was already built in:
Savings deposits ,,,,, Reg Q ceiling %
11/1/1933 ,,,,, 0.0300
02/1/1935 ,,,,, 0.0250
01/1/1957 ,,,,, 0.0300
01/1/1962 ,,,,, 0.0350
07/17/1963 ,,,,, 0.0400
11/24/1964 ,,,,, 0.0450
12/6/1965 ,,,,, 0.0550
07/20/1966 ,,,,, 0.0500
04/19/1968 ,,,,, 0.0625
07/21/1970 ,,,,, 0.0750
-----------
And the expiration of the FDIC’s unlimited transactions insurance gave the economy and the markets a little “bounce” as evidenced by the pick-up in N-gDp:
1/1/2013 ,,,,, 4.4
4/1/2013 ,,,,, 1.6
7/1/2013 ,,,,, 5.1
10/1/2013 ,,,,, 6.1
1/1/2014 ,,,,, 0.7
4/1/2014 ,,,,, 7.0
7/1/2014 ,,,,, 7.1
10/1/2014 ,,,,, 2.6
1/1/2015 ,,,,, 3.2
4/1/2015 ,,,,, 5.0