Twittiot Market?
Last Wednesday, August 31st, markets took a hard FOMC Powell-ing, paraphrasing some choice comments...
By the next day at 13:20 PM EST all was well as NQ futures had shaken off that shot to the chops and rebounded back to the 8000 level. But no, at 13:25 EST Mr. Market was the recipient of a low blow, and dropped to the canvas RUT -2.5%...
Once again, not to be mistaken for Tuesday's With Morrie, it's Tuesdays With Trump (A Day Early)... Following up on Where's Guy Fawkes? Regardless of your political leanings, whether you're blue, red, or just fed up with politicians, the MSM and their BS...
Searching high and low for the culprits to no avail, how did this happen? Who or what could have delivered a below the belt sucker punch to Mr. Market? More Powell-ing? Hormuz Rent A Rebel? Dirty Bomb? Middle East War?
Slapping our forehead, just check the Twittiot in Chief's feed...
In the ensuing 45 minutes, global markets crumpled to the canvas in a sea of red.... Crude plunged -9%; USD/JPY -1.2%; 5 year yield -9%, no those aren't decimal point errors. Friday held more global downside and as of this AM...The 25 bps cut is risk management, insurance, leverage is low, not part of a monetary easing cycle, just a mid cycle adjustment to policy.During the post announcement press conference Mr. Market did not approve of that uppercut to the chin as NQ futures dove immediately following the latter "mid cycle adjustment" comment, from 7980 -196pts, then recovered +80pts into close.
By the next day at 13:20 PM EST all was well as NQ futures had shaken off that shot to the chops and rebounded back to the 8000 level. But no, at 13:25 EST Mr. Market was the recipient of a low blow, and dropped to the canvas RUT -2.5%...
Once again, not to be mistaken for Tuesday's With Morrie, it's Tuesdays With Trump (A Day Early)... Following up on Where's Guy Fawkes? Regardless of your political leanings, whether you're blue, red, or just fed up with politicians, the MSM and their BS...
Searching high and low for the culprits to no avail, how did this happen? Who or what could have delivered a below the belt sucker punch to Mr. Market? More Powell-ing? Hormuz Rent A Rebel? Dirty Bomb? Middle East War?
Slapping our forehead, just check the Twittiot in Chief's feed...
Our representatives have just returned from China where they had constructive talks having to do with a future Trade Deal. We thought we had a deal with China three months ago, but sadly, China decided to re-negotiate the deal prior to signing. More recently, China agreed to...— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 1, 2019
...buy agricultural product from the U.S. in large quantities, but did not do so. Additionally, my friend President Xi said that he would stop the sale of Fentanyl to the United States – this never happened, and many Americans continue to die! Trade talks are continuing, and...— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 1, 2019
...during the talks the U.S. will start, on September 1st, putting a small additional Tariff of 10% on the remaining 300 Billion Dollars of goods and products coming from China into our Country. This does not include the 250 Billion Dollars already Tariffed at 25%...— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 1, 2019
...We look forward to continuing our positive dialogue with China on a comprehensive Trade Deal, and feel that the future between our two countries will be a very bright one!— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 1, 2019
Futures since 07/25 (the 5th seasonal inflection point): Hang Seng -9.7%; CAC -7.7%; DAX -7.3%; NDX -6.3%; Nikkei -6%; CNY/USD -2.6%
Since 07/31 (FOMC, day after POTUS Twitter): 5 yr yield -18.5%; Crude -8.9%; CNY/JPY -5%; RUT -4.8%; USD/JPY -3.2%
We look forward to continuing to wonder: how many of POTUS 45's friends or supporters might have been short on say, some crude futures right about 13:25 last Thursday? Not that any were, but just sayin.
Curious, how does a $150 or generously doubled to $300 per US household annual regressive tax (Trump's Tariff), much less a Twittiot In Chief turn global markets on their sides? There is something in this more than natural? As stated before...
"any cuts will be perceived as policy failures and an admission to... econometric falsity."Mr. Market might finally be saying "Liar, Liar?" TBD. And just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water, you can't even make it past the sand...
This week $162B in US Treasury note, bill and bond auctions with 3 to 1 bid to cover = 486B or half a trillion in tied up "liquidity". Bigger budget deficit, more debt, more issuance. Direct US Treasury sales draw money out of the market, less liquidity for primary dealers.
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