That's The Signpost Up Ahead?
It's different this time...
2007: All the money in banks, stocks and RE.
2019: All the money in funds and RE.
That's the signpost up ahead... Those funds are not banks and MMF's are where the banks have been fishing for margin (unstable as opposed to deposits). Bottom line, unlike bank deposits, none of this is backstopped.
That's the signpost up ahead... A whole bunch of custodied CLO's (onshore and offshore) are starting to smell like a can of rotten sardines (think currency hedged, negative yielding, inverse floater deals that went the wrong way).
Courtesy of Credit Suisse - Global Money Notes #24 - August 21, 2019 - Zoltan Pozsar
That's the signpost up ahead... the inversion that few talked about... the 3 month Yen (October 2018) and Euro hedged (January 2019) inverted with 10's.
That's the signpost up ahead... And look at the haircut it gave markets...
That's the signpost up ahead... the inversion even fewer talked about...
At the ultra short end: o/n GC repo; t/n Yen; t/n Euro all inverted with the 10 briefly in January 2019 and went full tilt boogey in March 2019. Is this "condition" what really prompted the Fed to pause and cut?
Courtesy of Credit Suisse - Global Money Notes #23 - August 12, 2019 - Zoltan Pozsar
That's the signpost up ahead... With at least $800bln net in Treasuries still to be auctioned this year, our biggest remaining UST buyers outside the already over bloated primary dealers are completely out, so look out below.
As noted on August 12th in Fed Cuts: Accommodative?
our biggest remaining UST buyers outside the already over bloated primary dealers are completely out, so look out below.
Keep your eyes to the sky, it could be a brand name? That's the signpost up ahead, your next stop.... More to come in Nuance and Timing? Stay tuned, no flippin.
FYI: ON: Overnight - between today and tomorrow (T+0 to T+1)
TN: Tomorrow next - between tomorrow and next day (T+1 to T+2)
SN: Spot next - day after next day (T+3)
SW: Spot week (T+7)
2007: All the money in banks, stocks and RE.
2019: All the money in funds and RE.
That's the signpost up ahead... Those funds are not banks and MMF's are where the banks have been fishing for margin (unstable as opposed to deposits). Bottom line, unlike bank deposits, none of this is backstopped.
That's the signpost up ahead... A whole bunch of custodied CLO's (onshore and offshore) are starting to smell like a can of rotten sardines (think currency hedged, negative yielding, inverse floater deals that went the wrong way).
That's the signpost up ahead... the inversion that few talked about... the 3 month Yen (October 2018) and Euro hedged (January 2019) inverted with 10's.
That's the signpost up ahead... And look at the haircut it gave markets...
At the ultra short end: o/n GC repo; t/n Yen; t/n Euro all inverted with the 10 briefly in January 2019 and went full tilt boogey in March 2019. Is this "condition" what really prompted the Fed to pause and cut?
That's the signpost up ahead... With at least $800bln net in Treasuries still to be auctioned this year, our biggest remaining UST buyers outside the already over bloated primary dealers are completely out, so look out below.
As noted on August 12th in Fed Cuts: Accommodative?
"Long term yields should drop further, quarter end rucks will cause short duration funding cost spikes (cost of loan funds), especially in September (think in anticipation of Chinese banks closing for golden week Oct 1st)... Seasonal monetary flow factors were already set to collapse into the 2nd half. Additional liquidity drains: TGA restock, $1T UST issuance by YE."That's the signpost up ahead... With month end, quarter end, Chinese Golden Week (Oct 1- 7th) funding needs, and seasonal ROC in monetary flow coming to a crawl....
our biggest remaining UST buyers outside the already over bloated primary dealers are completely out, so look out below.
Keep your eyes to the sky, it could be a brand name? That's the signpost up ahead, your next stop.... More to come in Nuance and Timing? Stay tuned, no flippin.
FYI: ON: Overnight - between today and tomorrow (T+0 to T+1)
TN: Tomorrow next - between tomorrow and next day (T+1 to T+2)
SN: Spot next - day after next day (T+3)
SW: Spot week (T+7)
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