Pundits and Professionals: Who do you believe??

The United States faces a high probability of "Economic Armageddon" according to Stephen Roach, chief economist at Morgan Stanley. "Balance the budget? Fugitaboutit" says PIMCO's Bill Gross. Meanwhile Warren Buffett has described financial derivatives, with contracts totaling $84 trillion in notional value concentrated among a handful of large US commercial banks, as "financial weapons of mass destruction" (2002 letter, p.15) while moving $20 billion out of the US dollar into foreign currencies.

Put mildly, some marquee names in the financial realm are sounding cautious regarding our financial future. At the same time today's business news carries a ready stream of articles and commentary from experienced financial professionals which generally suggest that although there may be room for concern regarding oil prices, dollar weakness and debt levels the economy can be expected to continue expanding at a moderate rate and financial asset prices, although not at historically low levels, offer reasonable value for the patient investor. Who do you believe???

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