Market Soapbox 06/14/05
Resistance: DJIA 10600; SP500 1210; Nasdaq 2075; NDX 1550
Support: DJIA 10400 ; SP500 1180 ; Nasdaq 2000; NDX 1500
European & Asian markets were up. Dollar up vs. Yen/Euro, commodities up, oil, gold & bonds down. Contra action: $ & commodities up. PPI numbers showed a drop in inflationary pressure for producers, tomorrow's CPI may confirm this.
Today's Soohey Pig Pig!! Award goes to the media firstly for; downplaying todays retail sales report. Quote from MSN...
"some are suggesting was a disappointing Retail Sales report for May, indicates that today's participants aren't bothered by the idea that a decline in retail sales in May is the start of a more meaningful slowdown in consumer spending...
"If anything, most are simply viewing it as a natural pullback following a strong April, as well as a natural consequence of the cool weather in May that restricted sales of seasonal merchandise..."
Ok lets just blame it on the locusts....see post on 05/27/05 for more guffaws and chuckles from the spinsters. Soohey, Pig Pig!!!!
Secondly, the Award goes to the media again for huckstering the Peak Oil scam. "it can be argued that there isn't much confidence in OPEC's ability to curtail rising prices given underlying concerns that OPEC lacks the spare production capacity to do so..."
As for comments regarding Occam's Razor and peak oil, Occam's Razor does not apply to peak oil. Occam's Razor should only be applied to theorems which can be empirically proven.
The theory of peak oil cannot be substantiated empirically. Remember, OPEC is responsible for a very small percentage of US oil imports. Believing in peak oil is like believing in the boogey man, its a contrived fairy tale designed to scare you. Believe half of what you see and nothing that you hear.
A large chunk of the windfall oil profits being generated for OPEC are being recycled into.....U.S. Treasury Bonds. A nice chunk of the windfall oil profits being generated for what is left of the seven sisters are being recycled into....oil futures contracts.
Thus driving the prices up artifically. Supply and demand are being artifically manipulated. We are the Arabs, and don't ever forget it. Nuff said.
A sideways rollercoaster day on lite volume, profit taking was nominal. Oil prices are at a 7 week high, Gold Bugs got hammered down today.
Again, watch gold stocks, XAU & Gold Bugs rising big as the price of gold barely moves. Something is afoot on a $ and sector play.
We have been banging on this drum for awhile, 2Q reporting for semis will not be pretty. The NDX has been heading slowly south since June 2nd. In the bigger picture, any tech led market rally will probably last until mid July.
Perhaps this is where oil & energy could step back in. The dollar is rising and so are commodities, this smells and looks fishy. Perhaps a commodities market setup is coming along with a tech sector slapdown before the bond market massacre in September.
As we have noted before, a Fed indicating rate hike pause will cause the markets to rally. But the pause will be temporary and spook the last of the herd into the bond market.
Caveat emptor as range bound trading and easy institutional sector manipulation abound. The RUT and MID seem to be holding up the best of all the indices.
We take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong.
Support: DJIA 10400 ; SP500 1180 ; Nasdaq 2000; NDX 1500
European & Asian markets were up. Dollar up vs. Yen/Euro, commodities up, oil, gold & bonds down. Contra action: $ & commodities up. PPI numbers showed a drop in inflationary pressure for producers, tomorrow's CPI may confirm this.
Today's Soohey Pig Pig!! Award goes to the media firstly for; downplaying todays retail sales report. Quote from MSN...
"some are suggesting was a disappointing Retail Sales report for May, indicates that today's participants aren't bothered by the idea that a decline in retail sales in May is the start of a more meaningful slowdown in consumer spending...
"If anything, most are simply viewing it as a natural pullback following a strong April, as well as a natural consequence of the cool weather in May that restricted sales of seasonal merchandise..."
Ok lets just blame it on the locusts....see post on 05/27/05 for more guffaws and chuckles from the spinsters. Soohey, Pig Pig!!!!
Secondly, the Award goes to the media again for huckstering the Peak Oil scam. "it can be argued that there isn't much confidence in OPEC's ability to curtail rising prices given underlying concerns that OPEC lacks the spare production capacity to do so..."
As for comments regarding Occam's Razor and peak oil, Occam's Razor does not apply to peak oil. Occam's Razor should only be applied to theorems which can be empirically proven.
The theory of peak oil cannot be substantiated empirically. Remember, OPEC is responsible for a very small percentage of US oil imports. Believing in peak oil is like believing in the boogey man, its a contrived fairy tale designed to scare you. Believe half of what you see and nothing that you hear.
A large chunk of the windfall oil profits being generated for OPEC are being recycled into.....U.S. Treasury Bonds. A nice chunk of the windfall oil profits being generated for what is left of the seven sisters are being recycled into....oil futures contracts.
Thus driving the prices up artifically. Supply and demand are being artifically manipulated. We are the Arabs, and don't ever forget it. Nuff said.
A sideways rollercoaster day on lite volume, profit taking was nominal. Oil prices are at a 7 week high, Gold Bugs got hammered down today.
Again, watch gold stocks, XAU & Gold Bugs rising big as the price of gold barely moves. Something is afoot on a $ and sector play.
We have been banging on this drum for awhile, 2Q reporting for semis will not be pretty. The NDX has been heading slowly south since June 2nd. In the bigger picture, any tech led market rally will probably last until mid July.
Perhaps this is where oil & energy could step back in. The dollar is rising and so are commodities, this smells and looks fishy. Perhaps a commodities market setup is coming along with a tech sector slapdown before the bond market massacre in September.
As we have noted before, a Fed indicating rate hike pause will cause the markets to rally. But the pause will be temporary and spook the last of the herd into the bond market.
Caveat emptor as range bound trading and easy institutional sector manipulation abound. The RUT and MID seem to be holding up the best of all the indices.
We take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong.
Comments