Market Soapbox 07/06/05

Resistance: DJIA 10600; SP500 1225; Nasdaq 2100; NDX 1550
Support: DJIA 10200 ; SP500 1180 ; Nasdaq 2000; NDX 1500

European markets were up, Asian down. Dollar up vs. Yen/Euro, oil, commodities & bonds up, gold down. The dollar continues to roar against other monopoly money and is at a 14 month high.

Today's Soohey Pig Pig!! Award goes to me for letting the pig have a quiet day in its poke.

A down day on average volume. Gold Bugs, Healthcare, Semis were up nicely. Energy, Oil and Oil Services issues got pounded even with oil surging above $60.

Upcoming events to watch for: Further options unwind on July 13th, 5 year note auction July 13th, 10 year TIPS auction July 14th, options expiration July 15th, 2Q05 earnings season gets into full swing starting July 18th through August 12th.

Yesterday, the RUT screamed, Utilities turned negative at the end of the day; the DJIA % gain lagged the other major and minor indices.

Several oil indices (XOI, OIX and OSX) touched historic highs yesterday. Energy, which has surged 5.0% over the last two sessions, today succumbed to profit-taking, as 24 out of the sector's 29 components lost an average of 1.5%

The (XAX) AMEX Composite touched a historic high on July 1st, then yesterday went the opposite way of everyone else, and not in a small way. Today it went the opposite way again.

The last time the XAX did this was on 03/07 of this year, he went down and everyone else peaked, then followed his act till late April.

Tuesday looked like a short covering rally to balance out last Thursdays thumping. Today looked like an options unwind, could be more coming tomorrow and Friday.

Reports out of Prudential that recommended investors with the appropriate risk tolerance get out of bonds altogether - allocating 100% of their portfolio to equities versus a benchmark 60/40 stock-bond split - what are they trying to tell us?

More evidence that a 2nd half economic revival could be on the way. June ISM services checked in at 62.2, well above forecasts of 58.9 and a May reading of 58.5. The employment component rebounded to 57.4 - the highest level since Feb. - while the prices paid index rose to 59.8.

We take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong.

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