Market Soapbox 08/11/05
Resistance: DJIA 10750; SP500 1250; Nasdaq 2200; NDX 1625
Support: DJIA 10500 ; SP500 1210 ; Nasdaq 2100; NDX 1535
European markets down & Asian markets up. Dollar down vs. Yen/Euro , oil, commodities, bonds & gold up.
Today's Soohey Pig Award goes to me for letting the pig have a quiet day in its poke.
Another large first hour surge that lauched the markets into a sea of green, then a reversal for a sideways and up day on lower volume.
Gold, materials and energy up big with the dollar getting pounded down. Gold bugs & the XAU roared as retail, airlines & transports suffered.
July retail sales up 1.8%, less than the expected 2.0% increase but above June's strong 1.7% gain, due in large part to the auto companies' "employee discount pricing" programs.
Excluding autos, a July sales increase of 0.3% missed forecasts (consensus +0.6%), but since June's gain was revised to +0.9% (from +0.7%).
These figures reflect strong trends with regard to consumption patterns and should set the stage for a big Q3 GDP gain approaching 5%. Business inventories, were flat in June versus an expected 0.1% rise.
The 10-year note was up 11 ticks to yield 4.34% following an excellent $13 bln 10-yr note auction. The auction awarded investors a coupon of 4.35% and enjoyed surprising indirect bidder participation of 46.9%.
From yesterday: Where will oil go? T. Boone Pickens, the Texas oilman, told CNBC' Melissa Francis that crude will reach $75 a barrel before long.
Today, oil set a new record high, flirting with $66 and extended yesterday's 2.9% surge that took the momentum out of an early rally.
Yesterday, the good news, the July Treasury budget deficit checked in at $52.8 bln, less than economists' forecasts of -$67.5 bln. If we keep this up, we could be $150bln less on the deficit.
This means our deficit to GDP ratio will be less than the Eurozone, yet, the greenback fell to a 10-week low against the euro (1.2436) and lost ground against the yen (109.88) after July retail sales figures missed expectations.
I smell something....the dollar gets pounded down to a 10 week low, yet bonds show their biggest rally in weeks and foreign participation for the 10 year note auction is outstanding...strange goings on indeed.
After last Wen through Mondays consolidation, the markets survived the end of reporting season and this weeks auctions & unwind, indicating there may be some gas still in the tank.
The market might head up for the next nine trading days to retest the latest highs, then we may see a change in direction for late August & September.
We take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong.
Support: DJIA 10500 ; SP500 1210 ; Nasdaq 2100; NDX 1535
European markets down & Asian markets up. Dollar down vs. Yen/Euro , oil, commodities, bonds & gold up.
Today's Soohey Pig Award goes to me for letting the pig have a quiet day in its poke.
Another large first hour surge that lauched the markets into a sea of green, then a reversal for a sideways and up day on lower volume.
Gold, materials and energy up big with the dollar getting pounded down. Gold bugs & the XAU roared as retail, airlines & transports suffered.
July retail sales up 1.8%, less than the expected 2.0% increase but above June's strong 1.7% gain, due in large part to the auto companies' "employee discount pricing" programs.
Excluding autos, a July sales increase of 0.3% missed forecasts (consensus +0.6%), but since June's gain was revised to +0.9% (from +0.7%).
These figures reflect strong trends with regard to consumption patterns and should set the stage for a big Q3 GDP gain approaching 5%. Business inventories, were flat in June versus an expected 0.1% rise.
The 10-year note was up 11 ticks to yield 4.34% following an excellent $13 bln 10-yr note auction. The auction awarded investors a coupon of 4.35% and enjoyed surprising indirect bidder participation of 46.9%.
From yesterday: Where will oil go? T. Boone Pickens, the Texas oilman, told CNBC' Melissa Francis that crude will reach $75 a barrel before long.
Today, oil set a new record high, flirting with $66 and extended yesterday's 2.9% surge that took the momentum out of an early rally.
Yesterday, the good news, the July Treasury budget deficit checked in at $52.8 bln, less than economists' forecasts of -$67.5 bln. If we keep this up, we could be $150bln less on the deficit.
This means our deficit to GDP ratio will be less than the Eurozone, yet, the greenback fell to a 10-week low against the euro (1.2436) and lost ground against the yen (109.88) after July retail sales figures missed expectations.
I smell something....the dollar gets pounded down to a 10 week low, yet bonds show their biggest rally in weeks and foreign participation for the 10 year note auction is outstanding...strange goings on indeed.
After last Wen through Mondays consolidation, the markets survived the end of reporting season and this weeks auctions & unwind, indicating there may be some gas still in the tank.
The market might head up for the next nine trading days to retest the latest highs, then we may see a change in direction for late August & September.
We take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong.
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