Market Soapbox 01/18/06
Resistance: DJIA 11050; SP500 1295; Nasdaq 2330; NDX 1765
Support: DJIA 10725 ; SP500 1265; Nasdaq 2250; NDX 1680
In our top story tonight, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL dead. In other news, Net Foreign Purchases $89.1B down from prior $104.2B, showing a little less interest in dollar denominated assets.
Total CPI down -0.4% non seasonal, seasonally adjusted -0.1% vs prior -0.6%; CORE CPI +0.2% vs prior +0.2%, Year over year Total CPI +3.4% the largest increase since 2000; energy and energy services up a record 17.6.
Clearly demonstrating that no matter how much number futzing the statistical conivers try, higher energy costs have and will continue to inflate prices in the supply chain.
17 weeks ago, DJIA -270 breaking key support. 16 weeks ago, DJIA +148, lacking conviction. 15 weeks ago, DJIA -281 crashing down. 14 weeks ago, large swings DJIA -6. 13 weeks ago larger swings, DJIA -77. Five weeks of downturn totaling -486.
12 weeks ago, recovery begins with larger swings, DJIA +186. 11 weeks ago, broadbased gains DJIA +128. 10 weeks ago, DJIA +154. 9 weeks ago, a slowing, DJIA +79. 8 weeks ago, DJIA +165. Five weeks of gains totaling DJIA +712.
7 weeks ago, DJIA -53, breaking the up trend. 6 weeks ago, DJIA -99, two straight down weeks. 5 weeks ago DJIA a deceiving +99. 4 weeks ago a weak DJIA +8. 3 weeks ago DJIA -168. Five weeks of downturn totaling DJIA -213
2 weeks ago DJIA +242 on a broadbased new year buy in. Last week DJIA Flat +0. Mon. Market Closed; Tues, another broad based sell off, DJIA -64 on lower volume with horrible internals.
Today, a broad based vortex opened up and sucked the market down, DJIA -41 on higher volume with butt ugly internals. This week DJIA -105 over the last 16 weeks +150.
DJTA up nicely, RUT & SOX weak, all others down, XOI, XAU, NDX, NAZ & DJUA beat senseless. CAC, DAX, FTSE, Hang Seng all pounded down. Nikkei 225 -3% biggest one day fall in 18 months, two day loss -5%.
Sectors: Transports, Airlines, Biotech, Networking, Tobacco & Healthcare up nicely. Gold Bugs, Tech, Natural Gas, Oil, Pharma, Cyclical & Commodity punked BIG.
Dollar down vs. Yen & up vs. Euro , XAU & gold down @ 544, XOI & crude down @ 65.73, CRB commodities down.
Yield curve INVERTED BIGTIME bonds flat with the 30 yr yield falling @ 4.51%; 10 yr @ 4.33; 5 yr @ 4.27; 2yr @ 4.33; 6mo @ 4.46; 3mo @ 4.35. 3mo, 6mo & 2yr above the 10 yr.
Looking ahead at potential market influences: Jan 19 Crude Inventory, Fed Beige Book. Building Permits, Housing Starts, Initial Claims, Philly Fed; Jan 20 Michigan Sentiment.
From Yesterday: "We breeched 1745 to the downside and bounced off the critical support level of 1732. Should we breech this level on a closing basis for two consecutive days, look out below."
As noted last night in this blog, aftermarket volume spiked and the NDX gapped down 28 points from 1736 to 1707, then bouncing to 1726 and falling to close at 1716. We don't want to throw the baby out with the bathwater on a potential 1795 peak, but... it would take a herculean turnaround at this point.
The EW pattern is disturbing, two possibilities; either an ABC up terminated on 01/11 and we have started a 1-5 down; OR the C up is still valid and will bounce up to finish around NDX 1795, after which look out below.
My gut sez, the long ride down has begun, thus the 1 down is about to become 2 up limited by 1761, followed by a very large and nasty 3 down.
Apple, Ebay and AMD report tonight and todays gap down will need to be filled in at some point. Tech could bounce tomorrow and drift the NDX up to 1736 where we grab a breath of fresh air and you better hold it, because support awaits below at 1680.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
Support: DJIA 10725 ; SP500 1265; Nasdaq 2250; NDX 1680
In our top story tonight, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL dead. In other news, Net Foreign Purchases $89.1B down from prior $104.2B, showing a little less interest in dollar denominated assets.
Total CPI down -0.4% non seasonal, seasonally adjusted -0.1% vs prior -0.6%; CORE CPI +0.2% vs prior +0.2%, Year over year Total CPI +3.4% the largest increase since 2000; energy and energy services up a record 17.6.
Clearly demonstrating that no matter how much number futzing the statistical conivers try, higher energy costs have and will continue to inflate prices in the supply chain.
17 weeks ago, DJIA -270 breaking key support. 16 weeks ago, DJIA +148, lacking conviction. 15 weeks ago, DJIA -281 crashing down. 14 weeks ago, large swings DJIA -6. 13 weeks ago larger swings, DJIA -77. Five weeks of downturn totaling -486.
12 weeks ago, recovery begins with larger swings, DJIA +186. 11 weeks ago, broadbased gains DJIA +128. 10 weeks ago, DJIA +154. 9 weeks ago, a slowing, DJIA +79. 8 weeks ago, DJIA +165. Five weeks of gains totaling DJIA +712.
7 weeks ago, DJIA -53, breaking the up trend. 6 weeks ago, DJIA -99, two straight down weeks. 5 weeks ago DJIA a deceiving +99. 4 weeks ago a weak DJIA +8. 3 weeks ago DJIA -168. Five weeks of downturn totaling DJIA -213
2 weeks ago DJIA +242 on a broadbased new year buy in. Last week DJIA Flat +0. Mon. Market Closed; Tues, another broad based sell off, DJIA -64 on lower volume with horrible internals.
Today, a broad based vortex opened up and sucked the market down, DJIA -41 on higher volume with butt ugly internals. This week DJIA -105 over the last 16 weeks +150.
DJTA up nicely, RUT & SOX weak, all others down, XOI, XAU, NDX, NAZ & DJUA beat senseless. CAC, DAX, FTSE, Hang Seng all pounded down. Nikkei 225 -3% biggest one day fall in 18 months, two day loss -5%.
Sectors: Transports, Airlines, Biotech, Networking, Tobacco & Healthcare up nicely. Gold Bugs, Tech, Natural Gas, Oil, Pharma, Cyclical & Commodity punked BIG.
Dollar down vs. Yen & up vs. Euro , XAU & gold down @ 544, XOI & crude down @ 65.73, CRB commodities down.
Yield curve INVERTED BIGTIME bonds flat with the 30 yr yield falling @ 4.51%; 10 yr @ 4.33; 5 yr @ 4.27; 2yr @ 4.33; 6mo @ 4.46; 3mo @ 4.35. 3mo, 6mo & 2yr above the 10 yr.
Looking ahead at potential market influences: Jan 19 Crude Inventory, Fed Beige Book. Building Permits, Housing Starts, Initial Claims, Philly Fed; Jan 20 Michigan Sentiment.
From Yesterday: "We breeched 1745 to the downside and bounced off the critical support level of 1732. Should we breech this level on a closing basis for two consecutive days, look out below."
As noted last night in this blog, aftermarket volume spiked and the NDX gapped down 28 points from 1736 to 1707, then bouncing to 1726 and falling to close at 1716. We don't want to throw the baby out with the bathwater on a potential 1795 peak, but... it would take a herculean turnaround at this point.
The EW pattern is disturbing, two possibilities; either an ABC up terminated on 01/11 and we have started a 1-5 down; OR the C up is still valid and will bounce up to finish around NDX 1795, after which look out below.
My gut sez, the long ride down has begun, thus the 1 down is about to become 2 up limited by 1761, followed by a very large and nasty 3 down.
Apple, Ebay and AMD report tonight and todays gap down will need to be filled in at some point. Tech could bounce tomorrow and drift the NDX up to 1736 where we grab a breath of fresh air and you better hold it, because support awaits below at 1680.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
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