Market Soapbox 02/22/06
Resistance: DJIA 11150; SP500 1295; Nasdaq 2315; NDX 1730
Support: DJIA 10700; SP500 1250; Nasdaq 2230; NDX 1640
In our top story tonight, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL dead. In other news, todays economic reports covered in another post. Today the NYSE made an all time high.
$22 Billion 2 yr note auction, yielding 4.689%; indirect bidders bought 31.3% vs prior 25.6%. Tomorrow, $14 Billion in 5 yr notes go on auction.
In June 2004, when the Fed commenced raising rates the spread between 10yr and 2yr notes was 188 basis points. Today, the spread is negative 14 basis points, the most since December 2000.
Recent DJIA History: 22 weeks ago, -270 breaking key support, 21 weeks +148, 20 weeks -281, 19 weeks -6, 18 weeks -77, (5 week loss -486). 17 weeks recovery begins +186, 16 weeks +128, 15 weeks +154, 14 weeks +79, 13 weeks +165, (5 week gain +712).
12 weeks -53, 11 weeks -99, 10 weeks +99, 9 weeks +8. 8 weeks -168, (5 week loss -213). 7 weeks +242 on a broadbased new year buy in, 6 weeks +0, 5 weeks -292, 4 weeks +240, 3 weeks -113. (5 week gain +75). 2 weeks DJIA +116, last week DJIA +197.
Tues, DJIA -46 a broadbased selloff on higher volume with lousy internals. Today, DJIA +68 on a broadbased bounce with higher volume and nice internals, this week DJIA +22, over the last 21 weeks DJIA +415.
XOI down. DJTA, RUT, MID, SOX, XAU & NDX up nicely. CAC DAX, FTSE, Hang Seng up, Nikkei 225 down.
Sectors: Commodity, Energy, Oil, Natural Gas all down. Airlines, Gold Bugs, Biotech, Pharma, Networking, Telecom, Brokers, Cyclical, Transports, Semis, Tech, Healthcare, Banking all up.
Dollar up vs. Euro & down vs. Yen, XAU up & gold flat @ 556.6, XOI & crude down 2.7% @ 61.01, CRB commodities down. Unleaded -3% & Natural Gas -6%
Yield curve MAJOR INVERSION bonds up BIG with the 30 yr yield falling @ 4.47%; 10 yr @ 4.52; 5 yr @ 4.56; 2yr @ 4.66; 6mo @ 4.70. In a full tilt boogey, 2yr is above the 30 year since 02/09, 6 days to go.
Looking ahead at potential market influences: Feb 23 EIA, 5 yr note auction, Initial Claims; Feb 24 Durable Goods
Yesterday: "seems we are heading for 1630 NDX... just when you think you know where its going, thats when you get slapped in the face... the market could bounce back."
Just when we thought its going south again, it bounced on a CPI media misread and oil pulling back 3%. Tomorrows EIA could show a build, which would pull back oil and jump the market further.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
Support: DJIA 10700; SP500 1250; Nasdaq 2230; NDX 1640
In our top story tonight, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL dead. In other news, todays economic reports covered in another post. Today the NYSE made an all time high.
$22 Billion 2 yr note auction, yielding 4.689%; indirect bidders bought 31.3% vs prior 25.6%. Tomorrow, $14 Billion in 5 yr notes go on auction.
In June 2004, when the Fed commenced raising rates the spread between 10yr and 2yr notes was 188 basis points. Today, the spread is negative 14 basis points, the most since December 2000.
Recent DJIA History: 22 weeks ago, -270 breaking key support, 21 weeks +148, 20 weeks -281, 19 weeks -6, 18 weeks -77, (5 week loss -486). 17 weeks recovery begins +186, 16 weeks +128, 15 weeks +154, 14 weeks +79, 13 weeks +165, (5 week gain +712).
12 weeks -53, 11 weeks -99, 10 weeks +99, 9 weeks +8. 8 weeks -168, (5 week loss -213). 7 weeks +242 on a broadbased new year buy in, 6 weeks +0, 5 weeks -292, 4 weeks +240, 3 weeks -113. (5 week gain +75). 2 weeks DJIA +116, last week DJIA +197.
Tues, DJIA -46 a broadbased selloff on higher volume with lousy internals. Today, DJIA +68 on a broadbased bounce with higher volume and nice internals, this week DJIA +22, over the last 21 weeks DJIA +415.
XOI down. DJTA, RUT, MID, SOX, XAU & NDX up nicely. CAC DAX, FTSE, Hang Seng up, Nikkei 225 down.
Sectors: Commodity, Energy, Oil, Natural Gas all down. Airlines, Gold Bugs, Biotech, Pharma, Networking, Telecom, Brokers, Cyclical, Transports, Semis, Tech, Healthcare, Banking all up.
Dollar up vs. Euro & down vs. Yen, XAU up & gold flat @ 556.6, XOI & crude down 2.7% @ 61.01, CRB commodities down. Unleaded -3% & Natural Gas -6%
Yield curve MAJOR INVERSION bonds up BIG with the 30 yr yield falling @ 4.47%; 10 yr @ 4.52; 5 yr @ 4.56; 2yr @ 4.66; 6mo @ 4.70. In a full tilt boogey, 2yr is above the 30 year since 02/09, 6 days to go.
Looking ahead at potential market influences: Feb 23 EIA, 5 yr note auction, Initial Claims; Feb 24 Durable Goods
Yesterday: "seems we are heading for 1630 NDX... just when you think you know where its going, thats when you get slapped in the face... the market could bounce back."
Just when we thought its going south again, it bounced on a CPI media misread and oil pulling back 3%. Tomorrows EIA could show a build, which would pull back oil and jump the market further.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
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