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Friday, March 24, 2006

Durable Orders and New Home Sales

Durable Orders +2.6% vs prior -8.9%; trumpeted as an improvement by the media.

Inside the number: the good news; nondefense aircraft +52.5% vs prior Jan -70.1%; as a result, transportation orders +13%.

Now the bad news: Non defense capital goods, a proxy for business spending -2.3%.

Due to the jump in civilian aircraft which pushed transportation up, the real measure of durable orders ex transportation was -1.3%.

Showing a major dropoff outside of civilian aircraft and capital defense spending which was +104% the highest in 4 years.

New Home Sales 1080K vs prior 1207K a 10.5% drop. The mustard is off the hot dog.

Both reports eased inflation fears and bond yields dropped.


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