Market Soapbox 03/27/06
Resistance: DJIA 11325; SP500 1310; Nasdaq 2325; NDX 1710
Support: DJIA 10950; SP500 1270; Nasdaq 2250; NDX 1635
In our top story tonight, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL dead. Today's $22 B 2 yr note auction: notes sold at 4.73%, indirect bidders 34.2% vs 2005 average of 34.6%.
FYI, the 10 yr - 2 yr note spread was 187 basis points before the Fed started raising, today it is negative 4. COTS data shows net long positions in 10 yr note futures for the week ending 03/21 have increased.
Speculative long positions, or bets prices will rise, (which means yields/rates go down) outnumbered short positions by 263,723 contracts on the CBOT, the most in at least 14 years. I think somebody is hedging their short position.
YIELD CURVE INVERSION, Bonds DOWN with the 30 yr yield rising @ 4.72%; 10 yr @ 4.70; 5 yr @ 4.69; 2yr @ 4.73; 6 mo @ 4.78. 2yr above 10 yr 12/27 - 03/07 & since 03/20. 2yr above 30 yr 02/09 - 03/07 & since 03/21.
DJIA week ending: 09/23 -270 breaking key support, 09/30 +148, 10/07 -281, 10/14 -6, 10/21 -77. (5 week loss -486).
10/28 recovery begins +186, 11/04 +128, 11/11 +154, 11/18 +79, 11/25 +165, (5 week gain +712). 12/02 -53, 12/09 -99, 12/16 +99, 12/23 +8, 12/30 -168, (5 week loss -213).
01/06 +242 on a broadbased new year buy in, 01/13 +0, 01/20 -292, 01/27 +240, 02/03 -113. (5 week gain +77). 02/10 +125, 02/17 +196, 02/24 -52. 03/03 +6. 03/10 +61, (5 week gain +336).
03/17 +159, 03/24 +0 (2 week gain +159). TODAY, DJIA -30 on lower volume with midlin internals. This week DJIA -30, since 09/23/05 DJIA +560.
UP: DJTA, XOI, XAU. DOWN: DJUA . DAX, CAC, FTSE all down 1%, Hang Seng & Nikkei 225 up.
UP: Airlines, Gold Bugs, Oil, Brokers, Transports, Commodity. DOWN: Real Estate, REIT's, Biotech, Pharma, Utilities.
Dollar UP vs. Euro 1.2010 & DOWN vs. Yen 116.77, XAU & gold UP @ 570, XOI UP & crude DOWN @ 64.24, CRB commodities index UP @ 327.65. Natural Gas -3.3%
Looking ahead at potential market influences: Mar 28 Consumer Confidence; FOMC Policy; Mar 29 $14 B 5 yr note auction, EIA Crude; Mar 30 Chain Deflator, GDP, Inital Claims; Mar 31 Personal Income and Spending, Mich Sentiment, Chicago PMI, Factory Orders
Friday: "Although there is large downside potential, we still see an upside potential for 764 RUT and 1334 SP500." The market lacks conviction and is awaiting Tuesday's FOMC statement.
An indication of pause in rate increases by the Fed will send the market upward. An indication of continued rate increases or a statement lacking direction will be interpreted negatively.
Today, the RUT & MID hit new all time highs. Next market inflection should be around April 14.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
Support: DJIA 10950; SP500 1270; Nasdaq 2250; NDX 1635
In our top story tonight, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL dead. Today's $22 B 2 yr note auction: notes sold at 4.73%, indirect bidders 34.2% vs 2005 average of 34.6%.
FYI, the 10 yr - 2 yr note spread was 187 basis points before the Fed started raising, today it is negative 4. COTS data shows net long positions in 10 yr note futures for the week ending 03/21 have increased.
Speculative long positions, or bets prices will rise, (which means yields/rates go down) outnumbered short positions by 263,723 contracts on the CBOT, the most in at least 14 years. I think somebody is hedging their short position.
YIELD CURVE INVERSION, Bonds DOWN with the 30 yr yield rising @ 4.72%; 10 yr @ 4.70; 5 yr @ 4.69; 2yr @ 4.73; 6 mo @ 4.78. 2yr above 10 yr 12/27 - 03/07 & since 03/20. 2yr above 30 yr 02/09 - 03/07 & since 03/21.
DJIA week ending: 09/23 -270 breaking key support, 09/30 +148, 10/07 -281, 10/14 -6, 10/21 -77. (5 week loss -486).
10/28 recovery begins +186, 11/04 +128, 11/11 +154, 11/18 +79, 11/25 +165, (5 week gain +712). 12/02 -53, 12/09 -99, 12/16 +99, 12/23 +8, 12/30 -168, (5 week loss -213).
01/06 +242 on a broadbased new year buy in, 01/13 +0, 01/20 -292, 01/27 +240, 02/03 -113. (5 week gain +77). 02/10 +125, 02/17 +196, 02/24 -52. 03/03 +6. 03/10 +61, (5 week gain +336).
03/17 +159, 03/24 +0 (2 week gain +159). TODAY, DJIA -30 on lower volume with midlin internals. This week DJIA -30, since 09/23/05 DJIA +560.
UP: DJTA, XOI, XAU. DOWN: DJUA . DAX, CAC, FTSE all down 1%, Hang Seng & Nikkei 225 up.
UP: Airlines, Gold Bugs, Oil, Brokers, Transports, Commodity. DOWN: Real Estate, REIT's, Biotech, Pharma, Utilities.
Dollar UP vs. Euro 1.2010 & DOWN vs. Yen 116.77, XAU & gold UP @ 570, XOI UP & crude DOWN @ 64.24, CRB commodities index UP @ 327.65. Natural Gas -3.3%
Looking ahead at potential market influences: Mar 28 Consumer Confidence; FOMC Policy; Mar 29 $14 B 5 yr note auction, EIA Crude; Mar 30 Chain Deflator, GDP, Inital Claims; Mar 31 Personal Income and Spending, Mich Sentiment, Chicago PMI, Factory Orders
Friday: "Although there is large downside potential, we still see an upside potential for 764 RUT and 1334 SP500." The market lacks conviction and is awaiting Tuesday's FOMC statement.
An indication of pause in rate increases by the Fed will send the market upward. An indication of continued rate increases or a statement lacking direction will be interpreted negatively.
Today, the RUT & MID hit new all time highs. Next market inflection should be around April 14.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
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