Business Inventories, Import Export Prices, EIA Crude, Sentiment
Heres the short version: improving sentiment, rising ex energy import & export prices, thin inventory to sales ratios, retail sales picking up, add a dash of major production squeeze (by design) in the energy sector...
then sprinkle in a steady rise in the price of non energy inputs and add a pinch of $3 a gallon gasoline and we see: further inflation coming; a revision to Q1 GDP closer to 5%; and the Fed raising in May to 5% and June to 5.25%.
Michigan Sentiment 89.2 vs prior 88.9 the 3rd straight gain. Initial claims +313K vs prior 301K. Full report
Retail sales +0.6% vs Feb revised up decline of -0.8%. Auto sales +1.6%; Building supplies +1.2%; gasoline -0.1% Full Report
EIA crude inventory +3.2Mb reaching an 8 year high. Gasoline stocks fell for the 6th straight week -3.9Mb; driving NYMEX unleaded prices up 1.8% to $2.10 per gallon and average California pump prices to $2.81. Distillates -4.2Mb driving up the cost of heating oil. Full EIA report
March Import prices fell for the 2nd straight month due to lower energy costs; -0.4% vs prior -0.5% vs est. +0.2%; ex oil -0.3%; ex all fuels +0.1%.
March import prices YOY +4.5% vs Feb YOY +7.2%; YOY ex petroleum +1.1%. The ex all fuels number strips out Natural Gas which fell 13% in March and 20% in Feb. Petroleum imports YOY +22.6%; non petroleum industrial supplies & materials YOY +7.3%.
March Export prices up for the 4th straight month +0.2% vs prior +0.1%. Non ag industrial supplies & materials YOY +7.7% due to rising energy and commodities prices. Full Import Export Report
Sales & Inventories for Merchant Wholesalers, Retailers & Manufacturers: Overall Sales -0.6%; YOY +7.8%; ex auto YOY +9.2%. Overall Inventories unchanged; YOY +3.7%; Inventory to Sales Ratio: 1.26 vs prior 1.31.
Inside the number: Inventory at Manufacturers -0.4%; at Retailers -0.3%; at Merchant Wholesalers +0.8%.Full Census Report
then sprinkle in a steady rise in the price of non energy inputs and add a pinch of $3 a gallon gasoline and we see: further inflation coming; a revision to Q1 GDP closer to 5%; and the Fed raising in May to 5% and June to 5.25%.
Michigan Sentiment 89.2 vs prior 88.9 the 3rd straight gain. Initial claims +313K vs prior 301K. Full report
Retail sales +0.6% vs Feb revised up decline of -0.8%. Auto sales +1.6%; Building supplies +1.2%; gasoline -0.1% Full Report
EIA crude inventory +3.2Mb reaching an 8 year high. Gasoline stocks fell for the 6th straight week -3.9Mb; driving NYMEX unleaded prices up 1.8% to $2.10 per gallon and average California pump prices to $2.81. Distillates -4.2Mb driving up the cost of heating oil. Full EIA report
March Import prices fell for the 2nd straight month due to lower energy costs; -0.4% vs prior -0.5% vs est. +0.2%; ex oil -0.3%; ex all fuels +0.1%.
March import prices YOY +4.5% vs Feb YOY +7.2%; YOY ex petroleum +1.1%. The ex all fuels number strips out Natural Gas which fell 13% in March and 20% in Feb. Petroleum imports YOY +22.6%; non petroleum industrial supplies & materials YOY +7.3%.
March Export prices up for the 4th straight month +0.2% vs prior +0.1%. Non ag industrial supplies & materials YOY +7.7% due to rising energy and commodities prices. Full Import Export Report
Sales & Inventories for Merchant Wholesalers, Retailers & Manufacturers: Overall Sales -0.6%; YOY +7.8%; ex auto YOY +9.2%. Overall Inventories unchanged; YOY +3.7%; Inventory to Sales Ratio: 1.26 vs prior 1.31.
Inside the number: Inventory at Manufacturers -0.4%; at Retailers -0.3%; at Merchant Wholesalers +0.8%.Full Census Report
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