ECB, BOE, Non Farm Payrolls, Wholesale Inventories

The ECB held its rate at 2.5% and President Jean Claude Trichet said policy makers are unlikely to raise interest rates next month.

Trichet's comment that the proposed May increase of 25bp, "did not correspond with the sentiment of the governing council" was key. The Euro fell from a 7 month high vs the dollar, but the ECB will probably raise in June.

The BOE held its rate at 4.5% but did not include any dovish statements such as the ECB regarding future actions. The Sterling Pound dropped slightly against the dollar.

The Korean central bank held its rate steady at 4%, and the Won still went to an 8.5 year high vs the dollar.

Unemployment 4.7% vs prior 4.8% a 5 year low. Non Farm Payrolls 211K vs prior 225K. Hourly wages +0.2% vs prior +0.4%; YOY 3.4%.

Wholesale Inventories +0.8% vs prior +0.2%, sales were flat. Not a big surprise in all this data, but we will get to the inside story.

The build in inventories in anbiguous and could be due to either sales falling off, a sign of economic weakness or wholesalers stockpiling in anticipation of increased future demand.

Wages increased but at a slower rate while hiring seems to be holding steady. Interestingly enough, manufacturing -5000 vs prior -10000; transportation -7600; goods producing +9000 vs prior +31000 and finally services +202K vs prior +194K. Can you say McJobs? I can.

Why did bonds and stocks sell off today? The Inside Story: The last time Non Farms was over 200K BACK TO BACK was April & May 2004 which after a 300K March report, stoked major inflation fears and precipitated a 6 week bond market and 5 week stock market slide.

Full Non Farms Report

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