Chicago PMI, Sentiment, Consumer Spending & Income, PCE Deflator
Univ of Wolverines Sentiment 84.9 vs prior 82.4 ho hum...
June Chicago PMI fell to 56.5 vs prior 58.5
Inside the number: Inflation pressures accelerated with the prices paid index rising to 89.0% from 76.9% in May.
May Personal Income & Spending +0.4%, Core PCE deflator +0.2% Full Report
Inside the number: Disposable personal income +0.3% vs prior +0.6%; Private wages +$0.2B vs prior +$48B. Personal savings as % of disposable of personal income -1.7%, the 12th straight month. Table 9: PCE price index +0.4% x 12 months = +4.8% annual inflation.
Naybob Conclusions: The guvmint is claiming 1/2 of the real rate of inflation, real incomes & spending are down, people are digging further into a hole (negative savings) to do their spending.
From yesterday's FOMC Statement: "Recent indicators suggest that economic growth is moderating from its quite strong pace earlier this year, partly reflecting a gradual cooling of the housing market and the lagged effects of increases in interest rates and energy prices."
Result: large market rally. Naybob Conclusion: Investors need to have a reality check & wake up call. When the market rallies +200 points because the Fed says the economy is weakening, there's big trouble in store. This knee jerk rally is a head fake, in the near term, the markets are headed further South.
June Chicago PMI fell to 56.5 vs prior 58.5
Inside the number: Inflation pressures accelerated with the prices paid index rising to 89.0% from 76.9% in May.
May Personal Income & Spending +0.4%, Core PCE deflator +0.2% Full Report
Inside the number: Disposable personal income +0.3% vs prior +0.6%; Private wages +$0.2B vs prior +$48B. Personal savings as % of disposable of personal income -1.7%, the 12th straight month. Table 9: PCE price index +0.4% x 12 months = +4.8% annual inflation.
Naybob Conclusions: The guvmint is claiming 1/2 of the real rate of inflation, real incomes & spending are down, people are digging further into a hole (negative savings) to do their spending.
From yesterday's FOMC Statement: "Recent indicators suggest that economic growth is moderating from its quite strong pace earlier this year, partly reflecting a gradual cooling of the housing market and the lagged effects of increases in interest rates and energy prices."
Result: large market rally. Naybob Conclusion: Investors need to have a reality check & wake up call. When the market rallies +200 points because the Fed says the economy is weakening, there's big trouble in store. This knee jerk rally is a head fake, in the near term, the markets are headed further South.
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