Import Prices, Inventories & Market Observations 07/14/06
June Import prices +0.1% after rising 1.7% in May and 2.0% in April. Export prices +0.8%
Inside the number: Despite a 1.4% drop in petroleum prices, the largest since last November, Excluding petroleum, import prices +0.4% and excluding all fuels, import prices +0.7%. Resistance to energy passthrough stagflation is futile. Full Report
Business Inventories +0.8% vs prior +0.7% Full Report
Inside the number: inventory to sales ratio fell back to a record low 1.25. The bulk of the increase in May's inventories came in the retail sector, particularly in auto inventories +3.2%, the fastest in seven years. Retail inventories +1.6%, the biggest gain in 12 years.
Crude above $78, getting closer to our $82.50 target; Gold $668, a two month high and it don't lie. Retail sales -0.1% , sales ex auto +0.3% vs prior +0.7%, GE at the lower end of expectations, inciting consumer spending & economic slowdown fears.
The BOJ raised its rate from ZERO to 25 bps, 1st raise in 6 years; Michigan Sentiment a bit low @ 83 vs prior 84.9; NAZ YTD -7.8%; Todays low of 674 on the RUT is very close to our call of 670.
Look at the VIX & VXN, anxiety tapered off today, perhaps some "bargain" hunters will spark another sucker rally? Awaiting, Tues PPI, Wen CPI, Thu FOMC minutes.
Inside the number: Despite a 1.4% drop in petroleum prices, the largest since last November, Excluding petroleum, import prices +0.4% and excluding all fuels, import prices +0.7%. Resistance to energy passthrough stagflation is futile. Full Report
Business Inventories +0.8% vs prior +0.7% Full Report
Inside the number: inventory to sales ratio fell back to a record low 1.25. The bulk of the increase in May's inventories came in the retail sector, particularly in auto inventories +3.2%, the fastest in seven years. Retail inventories +1.6%, the biggest gain in 12 years.
Crude above $78, getting closer to our $82.50 target; Gold $668, a two month high and it don't lie. Retail sales -0.1% , sales ex auto +0.3% vs prior +0.7%, GE at the lower end of expectations, inciting consumer spending & economic slowdown fears.
The BOJ raised its rate from ZERO to 25 bps, 1st raise in 6 years; Michigan Sentiment a bit low @ 83 vs prior 84.9; NAZ YTD -7.8%; Todays low of 674 on the RUT is very close to our call of 670.
Look at the VIX & VXN, anxiety tapered off today, perhaps some "bargain" hunters will spark another sucker rally? Awaiting, Tues PPI, Wen CPI, Thu FOMC minutes.
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