Market Soapbox 07/05/06
Resistance: DJIA 11775; SP500 1335; Nasdaq 2380; NDX 1750
Support: DJIA 10650, SP500 1210, Nasdaq 2050; NDX 1500
YIELD CURVE INVERSION: Bonds DOWN BIG with the 30 yr yield rising @ 5.26%; 10 yr @ 5.22; 5 yr @ 5.18; 2yr @ 5.23; 6 mo @ 5.30.
Recent Inversions: 2yr above 10 yr 12/27 - 03/07 & 03/20 - 3/29. 2yr above 30 yr 02/09 - 03/07 & 03/21 - 3/29. 6mo & 2yr above 30yr 06/13 - 06/30; 6mo above 10yr 06/02 -?; 2yr above 10yr 06/08 - ? 6mo above 30yr 06/13 - ?
MON, half day on thin volume with pretty internals, DJIA +78.
TUE, DJIA -76, on higher - but average volume with ugly internals. This week DJIA -78, since 09/19/05 DJIA +499.
Indexes UP: SOX, XAU, XOI. DOWN: Everything else. Sectors UP: Oil. DOWN: Everything else slammed, Gold Bugs pounded while XAU surged, WTF?
Overseas: FTSE, CAC, DAX, Hang Seng & Nikkei 225 ALL DOWN BIG.
Dollar UP vs. Euro 1.28 & UP vs. Yen 114.43, XAU +2% & gold +2% @ 629.5, XOI & crude +1.8% UP @ 75.14, CRB commodities index UP @ 349.86
Oil over $75 & gold surging, while bonds & equities suffered. A dozen retailers (BBBY, CHS, DG, GTRC, HD, NWY, PSUN, RSH, TBL, TLB, TUES, WSM) have made new 52-week lows today.
We stand by our position that the up pattern since 06/14 is a head fake. Until the market proves otherwise with additional conviction our thumb is pointed down. FYI quarterly earnings season kicks off Monday with Alcoa.
Support: DJIA 10650, SP500 1210, Nasdaq 2050; NDX 1500
YIELD CURVE INVERSION: Bonds DOWN BIG with the 30 yr yield rising @ 5.26%; 10 yr @ 5.22; 5 yr @ 5.18; 2yr @ 5.23; 6 mo @ 5.30.
Recent Inversions: 2yr above 10 yr 12/27 - 03/07 & 03/20 - 3/29. 2yr above 30 yr 02/09 - 03/07 & 03/21 - 3/29. 6mo & 2yr above 30yr 06/13 - 06/30; 6mo above 10yr 06/02 -?; 2yr above 10yr 06/08 - ? 6mo above 30yr 06/13 - ?
MON, half day on thin volume with pretty internals, DJIA +78.
TUE, DJIA -76, on higher - but average volume with ugly internals. This week DJIA -78, since 09/19/05 DJIA +499.
Indexes UP: SOX, XAU, XOI. DOWN: Everything else. Sectors UP: Oil. DOWN: Everything else slammed, Gold Bugs pounded while XAU surged, WTF?
Overseas: FTSE, CAC, DAX, Hang Seng & Nikkei 225 ALL DOWN BIG.
Dollar UP vs. Euro 1.28 & UP vs. Yen 114.43, XAU +2% & gold +2% @ 629.5, XOI & crude +1.8% UP @ 75.14, CRB commodities index UP @ 349.86
Oil over $75 & gold surging, while bonds & equities suffered. A dozen retailers (BBBY, CHS, DG, GTRC, HD, NWY, PSUN, RSH, TBL, TLB, TUES, WSM) have made new 52-week lows today.
We stand by our position that the up pattern since 06/14 is a head fake. Until the market proves otherwise with additional conviction our thumb is pointed down. FYI quarterly earnings season kicks off Monday with Alcoa.
Comments