Economic Reports & Observations 09/19/06
In our top story tonight, the leader of al-Qaida in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, is STILL dead and someone else has taken his place.
August PPI +0.1% Full Report
Inside the number: Core PPI -0.4%, 1st 2 month decline since late 2002, media slight of hand painted this as good news.
Ugly truth: the drop was led by -2.6% new car prices, -3.4% light motor truck prices & -0.3% capital equipment. NOT a good picture for manufacturing and durable economic activity.
Relief for John Q? hardly, Food prices +1.4%, Energy +0.3%, intermediate goods destined for further processing +0.4%, core intermediate PPI +0.4%, YOY rose +8.4% from 7.9% last month.
August Housing Starts -6% @ 1.665M Full Report
Inside the number: the lowest since April 2003. falling in 6 of the past 7 months.
August Building Permits -2.3% @ 1.722M
Inside the number: the lowest since August 2002. July Building permits revised lower -3.3%; falling 7 months in a row.
Housing starts -19.8% in the past year. New-home sales -22% from the peak last July.Building permits -21.9% YOY. If this isn't a meltdown, I don't know what is.
The slowdown in the housing sector has not been felt in employment, YET. Thus consumer spending has not been hit hard, YET.
The housing ATM spigot is getting turned off as well, this will create additional inertia for the multiplier effect to work in reverse. Listen for the whooshing sound like a vacumm cleaner...
Yesterday the OEX hit a high not seen since 08/14/01. Will the DJIA & SP500 attempt to surpass the May peak?
If this is not at the turning point, we are awfully close. I sense we are peering over or about to peer over a very deep precipice. Mid October looms large...
August PPI +0.1% Full Report
Inside the number: Core PPI -0.4%, 1st 2 month decline since late 2002, media slight of hand painted this as good news.
Ugly truth: the drop was led by -2.6% new car prices, -3.4% light motor truck prices & -0.3% capital equipment. NOT a good picture for manufacturing and durable economic activity.
Relief for John Q? hardly, Food prices +1.4%, Energy +0.3%, intermediate goods destined for further processing +0.4%, core intermediate PPI +0.4%, YOY rose +8.4% from 7.9% last month.
August Housing Starts -6% @ 1.665M Full Report
Inside the number: the lowest since April 2003. falling in 6 of the past 7 months.
August Building Permits -2.3% @ 1.722M
Inside the number: the lowest since August 2002. July Building permits revised lower -3.3%; falling 7 months in a row.
Housing starts -19.8% in the past year. New-home sales -22% from the peak last July.Building permits -21.9% YOY. If this isn't a meltdown, I don't know what is.
The slowdown in the housing sector has not been felt in employment, YET. Thus consumer spending has not been hit hard, YET.
The housing ATM spigot is getting turned off as well, this will create additional inertia for the multiplier effect to work in reverse. Listen for the whooshing sound like a vacumm cleaner...
Yesterday the OEX hit a high not seen since 08/14/01. Will the DJIA & SP500 attempt to surpass the May peak?
If this is not at the turning point, we are awfully close. I sense we are peering over or about to peer over a very deep precipice. Mid October looms large...
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