Market Soapbox & Observations Week Ending 09/29/06
Resistance: DJIA 11775; SP500 1335; Nasdaq 2380; NDX 1750
Support: DJIA 10250, SP500 1220, Nasdaq 2000; NDX 1450
YIELD CURVE INVERSION: Bonds DOWN with the 30 yr yield rising @ 4.76%; 10 yr @ 4.63; 5 yr @ 4.58; 2yr @ 4.69; 6 mo @ 5.01. The 10 yr bounced off a 6 month low.
Recent Inversions: 2yr above 10 yr 12/27 - 03/07; 03/20 - 3/29; 06/08 - 07/26. 2yr above 30 yr 02/09 - 03/07 & 03/21 - 3/29; 6mo & 2yr above 30yr 06/13 - 07/20.
2yr above 10yr 08/03 - ?; 6mo above 10yr 06/02 -?; 6mo above 30yr 06/13 - ?
MON, a bounce, DJIA +68 on higher volume with nice internals. All UP cept XAU. SP500 at 6 year high, 10 yr bond yield at 7 month low.
TUE, a broadbased lift, DJIA +94 hitting 11,723 intraday (all time high 11,990) on higher volume with pretty internals. All UP cept SOXX.
WEN, DJIA +20 on slightly higher but average volume with midlin internals. Oil +3.2% to $63 spoiled end of quarter rally. All UP cept NDX & SOXX.
THU, quarter ending window dressing pushes DJIA towards 11718, all time high close 11722.98. DJIA +29 on lower volume with midlin internals. DJTA, DJUA, XOI & XAU DOWN.
FRI, after touching new record, broadbased fall from grace DJIA -39 on lower volume with ugly internals. All DOWN cept XOI. This week DJIA +172, since 09/19/05 DJIA +1019.
Dollar UP vs. Euro 1.26823 & vs. Yen 118.13, XAU 128.42 & gold UP @ 604.2, XOI 1083.85 & crude UP @ $62.90, CRB commodities index UP @ 305.58.
Aug & Sept brought an unexpected kind and gentle breeze. The best Sept for the NAZ since 98, for the DJIA the 1st without a decline in nine years.
Quarter end window dressing helped put a heavy coat of lipstick on this pig. What will Oct bring? The beginning of the annual Santa rally? or a financial typhoon like 1929 & 1987 brought?
Is NDX 1796 possible by mid November? Perhaps this market climbs to new heights until year end, when most market corrections have begun historically.
Nevertheless, around Oct 11th we expect an inflection point, perhaps around NDX 1704, DJIA 12,000 & SP500 1365?
Support: DJIA 10250, SP500 1220, Nasdaq 2000; NDX 1450
YIELD CURVE INVERSION: Bonds DOWN with the 30 yr yield rising @ 4.76%; 10 yr @ 4.63; 5 yr @ 4.58; 2yr @ 4.69; 6 mo @ 5.01. The 10 yr bounced off a 6 month low.
Recent Inversions: 2yr above 10 yr 12/27 - 03/07; 03/20 - 3/29; 06/08 - 07/26. 2yr above 30 yr 02/09 - 03/07 & 03/21 - 3/29; 6mo & 2yr above 30yr 06/13 - 07/20.
2yr above 10yr 08/03 - ?; 6mo above 10yr 06/02 -?; 6mo above 30yr 06/13 - ?
MON, a bounce, DJIA +68 on higher volume with nice internals. All UP cept XAU. SP500 at 6 year high, 10 yr bond yield at 7 month low.
TUE, a broadbased lift, DJIA +94 hitting 11,723 intraday (all time high 11,990) on higher volume with pretty internals. All UP cept SOXX.
WEN, DJIA +20 on slightly higher but average volume with midlin internals. Oil +3.2% to $63 spoiled end of quarter rally. All UP cept NDX & SOXX.
THU, quarter ending window dressing pushes DJIA towards 11718, all time high close 11722.98. DJIA +29 on lower volume with midlin internals. DJTA, DJUA, XOI & XAU DOWN.
FRI, after touching new record, broadbased fall from grace DJIA -39 on lower volume with ugly internals. All DOWN cept XOI. This week DJIA +172, since 09/19/05 DJIA +1019.
Dollar UP vs. Euro 1.26823 & vs. Yen 118.13, XAU 128.42 & gold UP @ 604.2, XOI 1083.85 & crude UP @ $62.90, CRB commodities index UP @ 305.58.
Aug & Sept brought an unexpected kind and gentle breeze. The best Sept for the NAZ since 98, for the DJIA the 1st without a decline in nine years.
Quarter end window dressing helped put a heavy coat of lipstick on this pig. What will Oct bring? The beginning of the annual Santa rally? or a financial typhoon like 1929 & 1987 brought?
Is NDX 1796 possible by mid November? Perhaps this market climbs to new heights until year end, when most market corrections have begun historically.
Nevertheless, around Oct 11th we expect an inflection point, perhaps around NDX 1704, DJIA 12,000 & SP500 1365?
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