Market Soapbox & Observations 10/20/06

Resistance: DJIA 12100; SP500 1381; Nasdaq 2400; NDX 1794
Support: DJIA 10250, SP500 1220, Nasdaq 2000; NDX 1450

YIELD CURVE INVERSION: Bonds UP with the 30 yr yield falling @ 4.90%; 10 yr @ 4.79; 5 yr @ 4.76; 2yr @ 4.87; 6 mo @ 5.13.

Recent Inversions: 2yr above 10 yr 12/27 - 03/07; 03/20 - 3/29; 06/08 - 07/26. 2yr above 30 yr 02/09 - 03/07 & 03/21 - 3/29; 6mo & 2yr above 30yr 06/13 - 07/20.

2yr above 10yr 08/03 - ?; 6mo above 10yr 06/02 -?; 6mo above 30yr 06/13 - ?

MON, intraday over 12K, DJIA +20 on low volume with decent internals.

TUE, DJIA -31 on low volume with ugly internals.

WEN, DJIA -+43 on average volume with decent internals.

THU, a new all time closing high 12011, DJIA +19 on average volume with pretty internals.

FRI, still closing over 12K, DJIA -9 on slightly higher volume with midlin internals. RUT, MID, XOI, XAU, SOXX all DOWN. This week DJIA +42, since 09/19/05 DJIA +1342.

Dollar DOWN vs. Euro 1.26151 & vs. Yen 118.75, XAU DOWN 128.79 & gold UP @ 596.4, XOI UP 1123.85 & crude DOWN @ $56.82, CRB commodities index UP @ 305.74.

In our top story tonight, the leader of al-Qaida in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, is STILL dead and someone else has taken his place.

The DJIA closed over 12K. SP500 hit 1361 & headed for 1381? and NDX ran over 1704 heading for 1794?

The markets are still cheering downside micro and macro economic news. CORE CPI & PPI are still RISING with plunging retail sales & industrial production.

Perhaps some profit taking then onward and upward until Nov 7th, election day? Maybe by then reality will set in along with a change in control over the house & senate that will be considered not big business friendly. Let's see.

Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!

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