Economic Reports 11/17/06
Summary: Optimism may be up in the NAHB builder index, but the reality is demonstrable in starts and permits declines.
Do not be fooled by the NAR media spinsters, this is just the first leg down, the worst is yet to come and the bottom is nowhere in sight.
The commodities blow off continues, helpful to the consumer, but a large red flag warning of an imminent US and global slowdown.
Oct Housing Starts 1.49M vs prior 1.74M Full Report
Oct Building Permits 1.54M vs prior 1.64M
Inside the number: Starts -14.6% to their lowest level since July 2000, a 6 year low. Permits -6.3% to their lowest level since Oct 1997, a 9 year low.
Housing starts -27.4% from Oct 05, and building permits-28% on a year-on-year basis. SFR starts -15.9%, the lowest since July 2000 and the largest percentage decline since 1991.
Odds & Ends: Bonds rallied BIG on the housing news, with the 10 yr up 15 ticks dropping the yield to 4.60%. Gold steady in the $620-625 range.
Large afterhours volume spikes on the AMEX, NYSE & NASDAQ. Starbucks stock -6.7%, after the company reported a decline in net profit for the first time since Q202.
Crude hit its lowest level since mid 05, driven by fund selling across commodity markets on concern of an economic slowdown in the world's largest energy consumer the United States.
Oil prices fell toward $55 a barrel, falling another 2% after the largest single day drop in over a year -4.3% on Thurs.
Our target of $50-$52 called for 1 year ago on 10/20/05, is within striking distance.
Do not be fooled by the NAR media spinsters, this is just the first leg down, the worst is yet to come and the bottom is nowhere in sight.
The commodities blow off continues, helpful to the consumer, but a large red flag warning of an imminent US and global slowdown.
Oct Housing Starts 1.49M vs prior 1.74M Full Report
Oct Building Permits 1.54M vs prior 1.64M
Inside the number: Starts -14.6% to their lowest level since July 2000, a 6 year low. Permits -6.3% to their lowest level since Oct 1997, a 9 year low.
Housing starts -27.4% from Oct 05, and building permits-28% on a year-on-year basis. SFR starts -15.9%, the lowest since July 2000 and the largest percentage decline since 1991.
Odds & Ends: Bonds rallied BIG on the housing news, with the 10 yr up 15 ticks dropping the yield to 4.60%. Gold steady in the $620-625 range.
Large afterhours volume spikes on the AMEX, NYSE & NASDAQ. Starbucks stock -6.7%, after the company reported a decline in net profit for the first time since Q202.
Crude hit its lowest level since mid 05, driven by fund selling across commodity markets on concern of an economic slowdown in the world's largest energy consumer the United States.
Oil prices fell toward $55 a barrel, falling another 2% after the largest single day drop in over a year -4.3% on Thurs.
Our target of $50-$52 called for 1 year ago on 10/20/05, is within striking distance.
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