AFC Championship Game
UPDATED - NE@IND(-3): Peyton's Place
NE OFF Total #11 335.6, Rush #12 123.1, Pass #12 212.5, Sacks #10 29, RZ% #5 .600, Eff. #17 5.09 ypp. DEF Total #6 294.4, Rush D #5 94.2, Pass D #12 200.2, Sacks #5 44, TO diff #4 +8, RZD #2 .343, Eff. #10 4.96 ypp. Strength: of Victory .469; of Schedule .496
IND OFF Total #3 379.4, Rush #18 110.1, Pass #2 269.2, Sacks #1 15, RZ% #2 .661, Eff. #2 6.00 ypp. DEF Total #21 332.2, Rush D #32 173, Pass D #2 159.2, Sacks #30 25, TO diff #7 +7, RZD #31 .588, Eff. #29 5.54 ypp. Strength: of Victory .505; of Schedule .500
Key #1: IND #32 run D, last 3 games 92 ypg & 4.4 ypc. NE #5 run D, last 3 away 142 ypg & 5.3. The Colts are defending the run better than the Pats.
Key #2: Last 3 home & away, IND run O 139 ypc & 4.2 ypc, NE run O 113 ypg & 4.1. The Colts are running the ball better than the Pats.
Key #3: Last 3 games, IND RZ O .444 vs NE RZ D .300; NE RZ O .500 vs IND RZ D .286. Both teams could struggle in the red zone.
Key #4: Last 3 games home & away, NE D 344 ypg , IND D 252 ypg. Last 3 games NE D 347 ypg, IND D 241 ypg. The Colt D is playing better than the Pat D.
NE 12-5-2 ATS in playoffs, Belichik & Brady 12-1 SU in playoffs, 7-2 ATS in Jan, 8-1 SU & ATS on road, 17-7 ATS in domes, 4-0 ATS as dog. IND 7-7 ATS playoffs, 4-8 ATS vs NFC East.
NE vs IND, 8-2-1 ATS, the underdog is 9-2-1 ATS. NE last 2 playoff games vs IND 2-0 ATS & SU. However, last two meetings, both at NE, IND 2-0 SU & ATS, IND 9-0 SU at home. Vs teams that finished with a winning record NE 4-3, IND 7-1
Last year in NE, a 40-21 Colts rout with 2 NE & 1 IND TO's. Earlier this year in NE, a dead even shootout, the Colts winning 27-20 with 5 NE TO's, 4 Brady INTS vs 2 TO's for IND.
Will Colts QB Manning oblige the Patriots with turnovers & ineptitude as the Chargers did? Manning has obliged twice in playoff games, but is the 3rd time a charm?
If the Colts do not keep the TO ratio even or better, and fail to convert TO's and red zone drives into TD's, the Pats could match them tit for tat and squeak out another road win.
Last week, the Colt O struggled in the red zone vs a much more physical Raven D, kicking 5 FG's. The Pats D is giving up yardage like a sieve, but standing tough after TO's & inside the red zone.
Indoors on a fast surface, dome sweet dome, the Colts are 9-0. The Colt D has been able to reduce their last two opponents to a one dimensional team, and could do so easily vs an anemic Patriot running game.
The Colts have come in under the radar, as NO ONE expected them to go this deep in the playoffs and in such a manner, with defense.
Given the result of the last 2 meetings at NE, and the opposite direction that both defenses are going in, the 3rd time should be a charm.
UPDATE: By the way, since 2001, NE in domes 10-0, on road turf 23-1, in a rematch vs an opponent whom they lost to during the same season 15-1.
The exception being last year vs Denver, now owning a 3 game win streak vs NE. A reminder, IND has won the last 2 regular season meetings in decisive fashion.
Our pick is still IND to cover -3 and WIN
P.S. As noted yesterday, waiting until gametime on NO@CHI, current forecast 34 with 30% chance of snow, winds 12 mph. Da Bears need really bad weather, or else...
Championship games usually tend to be authoritative victories by the superior team, regardless of venue. We would be surprised if either game is close.
NE OFF Total #11 335.6, Rush #12 123.1, Pass #12 212.5, Sacks #10 29, RZ% #5 .600, Eff. #17 5.09 ypp. DEF Total #6 294.4, Rush D #5 94.2, Pass D #12 200.2, Sacks #5 44, TO diff #4 +8, RZD #2 .343, Eff. #10 4.96 ypp. Strength: of Victory .469; of Schedule .496
IND OFF Total #3 379.4, Rush #18 110.1, Pass #2 269.2, Sacks #1 15, RZ% #2 .661, Eff. #2 6.00 ypp. DEF Total #21 332.2, Rush D #32 173, Pass D #2 159.2, Sacks #30 25, TO diff #7 +7, RZD #31 .588, Eff. #29 5.54 ypp. Strength: of Victory .505; of Schedule .500
Key #1: IND #32 run D, last 3 games 92 ypg & 4.4 ypc. NE #5 run D, last 3 away 142 ypg & 5.3. The Colts are defending the run better than the Pats.
Key #2: Last 3 home & away, IND run O 139 ypc & 4.2 ypc, NE run O 113 ypg & 4.1. The Colts are running the ball better than the Pats.
Key #3: Last 3 games, IND RZ O .444 vs NE RZ D .300; NE RZ O .500 vs IND RZ D .286. Both teams could struggle in the red zone.
Key #4: Last 3 games home & away, NE D 344 ypg , IND D 252 ypg. Last 3 games NE D 347 ypg, IND D 241 ypg. The Colt D is playing better than the Pat D.
NE 12-5-2 ATS in playoffs, Belichik & Brady 12-1 SU in playoffs, 7-2 ATS in Jan, 8-1 SU & ATS on road, 17-7 ATS in domes, 4-0 ATS as dog. IND 7-7 ATS playoffs, 4-8 ATS vs NFC East.
NE vs IND, 8-2-1 ATS, the underdog is 9-2-1 ATS. NE last 2 playoff games vs IND 2-0 ATS & SU. However, last two meetings, both at NE, IND 2-0 SU & ATS, IND 9-0 SU at home. Vs teams that finished with a winning record NE 4-3, IND 7-1
Last year in NE, a 40-21 Colts rout with 2 NE & 1 IND TO's. Earlier this year in NE, a dead even shootout, the Colts winning 27-20 with 5 NE TO's, 4 Brady INTS vs 2 TO's for IND.
Will Colts QB Manning oblige the Patriots with turnovers & ineptitude as the Chargers did? Manning has obliged twice in playoff games, but is the 3rd time a charm?
If the Colts do not keep the TO ratio even or better, and fail to convert TO's and red zone drives into TD's, the Pats could match them tit for tat and squeak out another road win.
Last week, the Colt O struggled in the red zone vs a much more physical Raven D, kicking 5 FG's. The Pats D is giving up yardage like a sieve, but standing tough after TO's & inside the red zone.
Indoors on a fast surface, dome sweet dome, the Colts are 9-0. The Colt D has been able to reduce their last two opponents to a one dimensional team, and could do so easily vs an anemic Patriot running game.
The Colts have come in under the radar, as NO ONE expected them to go this deep in the playoffs and in such a manner, with defense.
Given the result of the last 2 meetings at NE, and the opposite direction that both defenses are going in, the 3rd time should be a charm.
UPDATE: By the way, since 2001, NE in domes 10-0, on road turf 23-1, in a rematch vs an opponent whom they lost to during the same season 15-1.
The exception being last year vs Denver, now owning a 3 game win streak vs NE. A reminder, IND has won the last 2 regular season meetings in decisive fashion.
Our pick is still IND to cover -3 and WIN
P.S. As noted yesterday, waiting until gametime on NO@CHI, current forecast 34 with 30% chance of snow, winds 12 mph. Da Bears need really bad weather, or else...
Championship games usually tend to be authoritative victories by the superior team, regardless of venue. We would be surprised if either game is close.
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