Market Soapbox Week Ending 03/02/07
MON, 4th day down, DJIA -15 on lower volume with poor internals. All DOWN cept XMI, XOI, XAU, DJUA. Bonds up 10 yr -4bps 4.63, $ down vs 1.3184E & vs 120.575Y, WTI crude up $61.53, gold up $689.70.
TUE, off a cliff, DJIA -416 on high volume with fugly internals. All DOWN BIG +3%. Bonds UP BIG 10 yr yield - 12 bps 4.51, $ crushed vs 117.875y & vs 1.3238E, WTI crude down 1% $60.78, gold down 3% $669.80, XAU pancaked -6.65%.
WEN, a wavy bounce, DJIA +52 on higher volume with nice internals. All UP cept, DJTA, DJUA. Bonds down 10yr yield +5 bps 4.56, $ up vs 118.405y & up vs 1.3234E, WTI crude up $61.82, gold up $673.10
THU, broadbased followthrough down, DJIA -34 on higher volume and ugly internals. All DOWN cept DJUA. Bonds up 10 yr yield -1 bps 4.55, $ down vs 117.595y & up vs 1.3184E, gold down $666.60, WTI crude up $61.83.
FRI, more downside collapsing into the close, DJIA -120 on higher volume with poor internals. All DOWN . Bonds up 10 yr yield -4 bps 4.51, $ down vs 116.78y & vs 1.3192E, gold down $646.40, WTI crude down $61.47
This week, DJIA -533, since 09/19/05 DJIA +1486. Dollar down vs. Euro 1.3192 & up vs. Yen 116.78, XAU down 132.99 & gold down $646.40, XOI down 1122.95 & WTI crude up $61.47, CRB commodities index down 310.07
YIELD CURVE CORRECTING: This week bonds up with the 10 yr yield falling 17bps. 30 yr @ 4.65%; 10 yr @ 4.51; 5 yr @ 4.45; 2yr @ 4.55; 6 mo @ 5.06.
Recent Inversions: 2yr above 10 yr 12/27 - 03/07; 03/20 - 3/29; 06/08 - 07/26. 2yr above 30 yr 02/09 - 03/07 & 03/21 - 3/29; 6mo & 2yr above 30yr 06/13 - 07/20.
2yr above 10yr 08/03 - ?; 6mo above 10yr 06/02 -?; 6mo above 30yr 06/13 - ? 2 yr above 30yr 11/03 - 03/01
Resistance: DJIA 12350; SP500 1410; NAZ 2420; NDX 1770
Support: DJIA 12000; SP500 1380; NAZ 2350; NDX 1715
A redux from last week: Many times in the last two years and again last week, we brought up the danger in the debt markets vis a vis derivatives. The media is just now focusing on the real danger in debt markets.
The effects on REIT's, homebuilders, thifts & loans and the overall financial sector cannot be dismissed with the wave of a hand, as trivial.
Aside from homebuilding creating 40% of new jobs since 2000, the "money shuffling" sector accounts for the majority of revenue and profit generation in our "vapor" economy.
What do you mean by "vapor" oh Nattering One? I have commented many times in these pages that we have become experts at making money "out of thin air" with little investment cost and no tangible end product.
I refer to this as "money shuffling" through the financial sector, transaction fees, brokers, electronic services. A meltdown in the debt markets would seriously damage not only our economy, but the global picture as well.
Dollar index plunging through 84 to 83.75 as the dollar got punked, crude unjustifiably hovering about $61.
Gold plunging from $690 to $646, as bonds rallied BIG lowering the 10 yr 17 bps to 4.51, Volatility spiking VIX up from 11.5 to 19.5 back to 16, making it look like a near term peak to me.
Closing under 1395 for 2 straight days would signify a mid term consolidation is in process and further downside. We suspect a bounce on Monday before more downside.
There are more triple digit down days coming and perhaps a "black" day as well.
TUE, off a cliff, DJIA -416 on high volume with fugly internals. All DOWN BIG +3%. Bonds UP BIG 10 yr yield - 12 bps 4.51, $ crushed vs 117.875y & vs 1.3238E, WTI crude down 1% $60.78, gold down 3% $669.80, XAU pancaked -6.65%.
WEN, a wavy bounce, DJIA +52 on higher volume with nice internals. All UP cept, DJTA, DJUA. Bonds down 10yr yield +5 bps 4.56, $ up vs 118.405y & up vs 1.3234E, WTI crude up $61.82, gold up $673.10
THU, broadbased followthrough down, DJIA -34 on higher volume and ugly internals. All DOWN cept DJUA. Bonds up 10 yr yield -1 bps 4.55, $ down vs 117.595y & up vs 1.3184E, gold down $666.60, WTI crude up $61.83.
FRI, more downside collapsing into the close, DJIA -120 on higher volume with poor internals. All DOWN . Bonds up 10 yr yield -4 bps 4.51, $ down vs 116.78y & vs 1.3192E, gold down $646.40, WTI crude down $61.47
This week, DJIA -533, since 09/19/05 DJIA +1486. Dollar down vs. Euro 1.3192 & up vs. Yen 116.78, XAU down 132.99 & gold down $646.40, XOI down 1122.95 & WTI crude up $61.47, CRB commodities index down 310.07
YIELD CURVE CORRECTING: This week bonds up with the 10 yr yield falling 17bps. 30 yr @ 4.65%; 10 yr @ 4.51; 5 yr @ 4.45; 2yr @ 4.55; 6 mo @ 5.06.
Recent Inversions: 2yr above 10 yr 12/27 - 03/07; 03/20 - 3/29; 06/08 - 07/26. 2yr above 30 yr 02/09 - 03/07 & 03/21 - 3/29; 6mo & 2yr above 30yr 06/13 - 07/20.
2yr above 10yr 08/03 - ?; 6mo above 10yr 06/02 -?; 6mo above 30yr 06/13 - ? 2 yr above 30yr 11/03 - 03/01
Resistance: DJIA 12350; SP500 1410; NAZ 2420; NDX 1770
Support: DJIA 12000; SP500 1380; NAZ 2350; NDX 1715
A redux from last week: Many times in the last two years and again last week, we brought up the danger in the debt markets vis a vis derivatives. The media is just now focusing on the real danger in debt markets.
The effects on REIT's, homebuilders, thifts & loans and the overall financial sector cannot be dismissed with the wave of a hand, as trivial.
Aside from homebuilding creating 40% of new jobs since 2000, the "money shuffling" sector accounts for the majority of revenue and profit generation in our "vapor" economy.
What do you mean by "vapor" oh Nattering One? I have commented many times in these pages that we have become experts at making money "out of thin air" with little investment cost and no tangible end product.
I refer to this as "money shuffling" through the financial sector, transaction fees, brokers, electronic services. A meltdown in the debt markets would seriously damage not only our economy, but the global picture as well.
Dollar index plunging through 84 to 83.75 as the dollar got punked, crude unjustifiably hovering about $61.
Gold plunging from $690 to $646, as bonds rallied BIG lowering the 10 yr 17 bps to 4.51, Volatility spiking VIX up from 11.5 to 19.5 back to 16, making it look like a near term peak to me.
Closing under 1395 for 2 straight days would signify a mid term consolidation is in process and further downside. We suspect a bounce on Monday before more downside.
There are more triple digit down days coming and perhaps a "black" day as well.
Comments