Market Soapbox 04/11/07
WEN, broadbased profit taking, DJIA -89 on below average volume with fugly internals.
All DOWN. Bonds down 10yr yield +1 bps 4.73, $ up vs 119.335y & vs 1.3428E, WTI crude up $62.01, gold up $681.70
International Monetary Fund cut its forecast for U.S. economic growth this year by almost a full percentage point to 2.2%, the weakest in five years, citing a weaker housing market than previously estimated.
"A growth pause still seems more likely at this stage than a recession." the IMF report said. Who cares about the IMF, what do AMERICANS think??
Most Americans expect a recession within a year and 58% disapprove of "Shrub" or Dubya's handling of the economy.
Six in 10 who were surveyed predicted a recession, similar to the 64% who anticipated the economy would contract in a December 2000 poll by the Los Angeles Times three months before the last decline.
KB Home (KBH) CEO saying the housing market will get worse before it gets better. Do ya think? Homebuilding is now down 21.5% this year.
The National Association of Realtors said it sees median existing home prices down 0.7% in 2007, the first decline in nearly 40 years, versus a 1% rise in 2006.
"We've been getting reports from realtors out in the field about home closings not going through at the last minute because of loan problems.'' No kidding, really?
This was the first drop since the real estate trade group began keeping records in 1968 and probably the first decline since the Great Depression. (The last time deregulated Utilties and investment trusts ran amok.)
Yesterday: "Fee, Fi, Fo, Fum, we smell con-soli-da-tion..." Today, the DJIA attempting to extend an 8 day winning streak, smacked into a solid "no hint of a rate cut" wall.
The Fed giveth having removed a reference in their policy statement to tighter credit: "Further policy firming. " And taketh away in the meeting minutes: "Further policy firming might prove necessary to foster lower inflation."
SP500 falling from 1449 to 1439. DJIA was in a triple digit hole twice on the day. Tech , Semis & Small Caps slapped.
On the morrow, ECB rate announcement, 10 year TIPS auction, Import & Export Prices. Fri: PPI & GE reports.
Further signs of mounting stagflation and lowered forward guidance could take the SP500 down near 1425 which is MAX PAIN on options.
Next week, short covering from a disproportionate number of Puts should garner a bounce. The caveat will be in who's reporting, the results and the verbiage of forward looking statements.
Often wrong, but never in doubt, this is the Nattering Naybob and your not!!!
All DOWN. Bonds down 10yr yield +1 bps 4.73, $ up vs 119.335y & vs 1.3428E, WTI crude up $62.01, gold up $681.70
International Monetary Fund cut its forecast for U.S. economic growth this year by almost a full percentage point to 2.2%, the weakest in five years, citing a weaker housing market than previously estimated.
"A growth pause still seems more likely at this stage than a recession." the IMF report said. Who cares about the IMF, what do AMERICANS think??
Most Americans expect a recession within a year and 58% disapprove of "Shrub" or Dubya's handling of the economy.
Six in 10 who were surveyed predicted a recession, similar to the 64% who anticipated the economy would contract in a December 2000 poll by the Los Angeles Times three months before the last decline.
KB Home (KBH) CEO saying the housing market will get worse before it gets better. Do ya think? Homebuilding is now down 21.5% this year.
The National Association of Realtors said it sees median existing home prices down 0.7% in 2007, the first decline in nearly 40 years, versus a 1% rise in 2006.
"We've been getting reports from realtors out in the field about home closings not going through at the last minute because of loan problems.'' No kidding, really?
This was the first drop since the real estate trade group began keeping records in 1968 and probably the first decline since the Great Depression. (The last time deregulated Utilties and investment trusts ran amok.)
Yesterday: "Fee, Fi, Fo, Fum, we smell con-soli-da-tion..." Today, the DJIA attempting to extend an 8 day winning streak, smacked into a solid "no hint of a rate cut" wall.
The Fed giveth having removed a reference in their policy statement to tighter credit: "Further policy firming. " And taketh away in the meeting minutes: "Further policy firming might prove necessary to foster lower inflation."
SP500 falling from 1449 to 1439. DJIA was in a triple digit hole twice on the day. Tech , Semis & Small Caps slapped.
On the morrow, ECB rate announcement, 10 year TIPS auction, Import & Export Prices. Fri: PPI & GE reports.
Further signs of mounting stagflation and lowered forward guidance could take the SP500 down near 1425 which is MAX PAIN on options.
Next week, short covering from a disproportionate number of Puts should garner a bounce. The caveat will be in who's reporting, the results and the verbiage of forward looking statements.
Often wrong, but never in doubt, this is the Nattering Naybob and your not!!!
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