Market Soapbox Week Ending 05/04/07
MON, DJIA -58 on average volume with ugly internals. All DOWN. Bonds up BIG, 10 yr yield -7 bps 4.62, $ up vs 1.365E & down vs 119.499Y, WTI crude down 1% $65.71, gold up $683.5
TUE, DJIA +73 on average volume with midlin internals. All UP cept DJTA, XAU. Bonds down 10 yr yield +2 bps 4.64, $ up vs 119.78Y & vs 1.3612E, WTI crude down 2% $64.40, gold down 1% $677.3.
WEN, broadbased followthrough, DJIA +76 on average volume with pretty internals. All UP. Bonds flat 10yr yield +0bps 4.64, $ up vs 120.18y & vs 1.3587E, WTI crude down $63.54, gold down $675.9
THU, more up action, DJIA +30 on average volume with nice internals. All UP cept DJUA. Bonds down 10 yr yield +3 bps 4.67, $ up vs 120.385y & vs 1.3556E, gold up $684.6, WTI crude down $63.26
FRI, DJIA +23 on average volume with decent internals. All UP cept XMI. Bonds up 10 yr yield -3 bps 4.64, $ up vs 120.149y & down vs 1.3596E, gold up $689.70, WTI crude down 2% $61.93
This week, DJIA +144, since 09/19/05 DJIA +2630. CRB commodities down from 314.20 to 311.24.
XAU up 139.71 to 141.85 & gold up from $681.80 to $689.70. XOI up 1284.45 to 1298.19 & WTI crude down $66.46 to $61.93.
Volatility VIX up 12.45 to 12.91. Dollar index up 81.47 to 81.72. $ up vs falling Yen 119.605 to 120.149 & up vs Euro 1.3652 to 1.3596.
This week bonds up 30 year bond rising from 110.29 to 111.14, yield curve falling and inverting 2 over 10; 30 yr -7bps; 10 yr -5bps, 30 yr @ 4.81%; 10 yr @ 4.64; 5 yr @ 4.55; 2yr @ 4.67; 6 mo @ 5.01.
Recent Inversions: 2yr above 10 yr 12/27/05 - 3/29/06; 06/08/06 - 02/22/07; 05/02/07 - ? 2yr above 30 yr 02/09/06 - 3/29/06; 11/03/06- 03/01/07. 6mo above 10yr 06/02/06 -?; 6mo above 30yr 06/13/06 - ?
Resistance: DJIA 13300; SP500 1505; NAZ 2575; NDX 1900
Support: DJIA 13000; SP500 1485; NAZ 2530; NDX 1860
The markets mantra continues: "Ignore the man behind the curtain"... and go parabolic... All indices at all time or multi year highs. Meeting heavy resistance SOXX at 505 and RUT at 835, watch em both for clues.
Yesterday, "Non Farms Porridge must be just right", it was, weak... along with crude dropping 7% this week; the markets myopically views this as justification for low inflation and perhaps even rate cuts.
SP500 riding up from 1503 to 1510 then parking at 1505; 22.4 points away from all time closing high March 23, 2000 @ 1527.40. SP500 1520-1530 is the next target.
Today, despite weak jobs growth, DJIA a 20th record close YTD 13,264 and up 23 for 26, something that hasn't happened since 1929.... Often wrong, but never in doubt, this is the Nattering Naybob and your not!
TUE, DJIA +73 on average volume with midlin internals. All UP cept DJTA, XAU. Bonds down 10 yr yield +2 bps 4.64, $ up vs 119.78Y & vs 1.3612E, WTI crude down 2% $64.40, gold down 1% $677.3.
WEN, broadbased followthrough, DJIA +76 on average volume with pretty internals. All UP. Bonds flat 10yr yield +0bps 4.64, $ up vs 120.18y & vs 1.3587E, WTI crude down $63.54, gold down $675.9
THU, more up action, DJIA +30 on average volume with nice internals. All UP cept DJUA. Bonds down 10 yr yield +3 bps 4.67, $ up vs 120.385y & vs 1.3556E, gold up $684.6, WTI crude down $63.26
FRI, DJIA +23 on average volume with decent internals. All UP cept XMI. Bonds up 10 yr yield -3 bps 4.64, $ up vs 120.149y & down vs 1.3596E, gold up $689.70, WTI crude down 2% $61.93
This week, DJIA +144, since 09/19/05 DJIA +2630. CRB commodities down from 314.20 to 311.24.
XAU up 139.71 to 141.85 & gold up from $681.80 to $689.70. XOI up 1284.45 to 1298.19 & WTI crude down $66.46 to $61.93.
Volatility VIX up 12.45 to 12.91. Dollar index up 81.47 to 81.72. $ up vs falling Yen 119.605 to 120.149 & up vs Euro 1.3652 to 1.3596.
This week bonds up 30 year bond rising from 110.29 to 111.14, yield curve falling and inverting 2 over 10; 30 yr -7bps; 10 yr -5bps, 30 yr @ 4.81%; 10 yr @ 4.64; 5 yr @ 4.55; 2yr @ 4.67; 6 mo @ 5.01.
Recent Inversions: 2yr above 10 yr 12/27/05 - 3/29/06; 06/08/06 - 02/22/07; 05/02/07 - ? 2yr above 30 yr 02/09/06 - 3/29/06; 11/03/06- 03/01/07. 6mo above 10yr 06/02/06 -?; 6mo above 30yr 06/13/06 - ?
Resistance: DJIA 13300; SP500 1505; NAZ 2575; NDX 1900
Support: DJIA 13000; SP500 1485; NAZ 2530; NDX 1860
The markets mantra continues: "Ignore the man behind the curtain"... and go parabolic... All indices at all time or multi year highs. Meeting heavy resistance SOXX at 505 and RUT at 835, watch em both for clues.
Yesterday, "Non Farms Porridge must be just right", it was, weak... along with crude dropping 7% this week; the markets myopically views this as justification for low inflation and perhaps even rate cuts.
SP500 riding up from 1503 to 1510 then parking at 1505; 22.4 points away from all time closing high March 23, 2000 @ 1527.40. SP500 1520-1530 is the next target.
Today, despite weak jobs growth, DJIA a 20th record close YTD 13,264 and up 23 for 26, something that hasn't happened since 1929.... Often wrong, but never in doubt, this is the Nattering Naybob and your not!
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