Economic Reports 06/01/07
Summary: Consumer sentiment dipping... Nonfarm Payrolls up, but the emasculation of the durable economic job base continues...
Personal Income & Spending witness horrific stagflation and the results of the job base emasculation...
ISM showing slowing deliveries, decreased backlogs and lower inventories...
Pending home sales still falling as the housing market collapses... Auto sales headed down again.
Mich Sentiment-Rev. May 88.3 vs prior 88.7
Nonfarm Payrolls May +157K vs prior +88K - Full Report
Inside the number: Unemployment Rate steady May 4.5% vs prior 4.5%.
Durable Jobs Wave Bye: Goods Producing -19K; Construction FLAT; Manufacturing -19K; Durable Goods -15K; Transportation Equipment -10K; Retail trade -5K
McJobs Say Hi: Leisure & Hospitality +46K; Government +22K
Personal Income Apr -0.1% vs prior +0.8% Full Report
Inside the number: PCE Personal Spending Apr +0.5% vs prior +0.4%. Core PCE Inflation Apr +0.1% vs prior 0.0%.
Table 5: Non durable goods PCE averaging +0.7% over the last 6 months, thats 8.4% "advertised" stagflation, confirming the Q4 vs Q1 +8.7% rise.
But the real shop of horrors can be found in income & outlays Yoy Q106 vs Q107 Table 4:
Income: Compensation -20%; Private Industries -24%; Trade, Transportation & Utilities -63%; Goods Producing -69%; Manufacturing -71%.
Outlays: Durable Goods -60%; Non Durable Goods +30%; Services +67%.
To repeat: Yoy outlays for non durable goods +30% and services +67%, theres your stagflation.
Durable goods outlays -60% bears out the income declines and emasculation.
ISM Index May 55% vs prior 54.7 Full Report
Inside the number: new orders up 59.6% vs 58.5%; production up 58.3% vs 57.3%; employment down 51.9% vs 53.1%.
Prices paid index down 71% vs 73%; backlogs down 52.5 vs 54.5; inventory down 46.1% vs 46.3%, the 10th straight month of falling inventories.
Falling backlogs & inventories, slowing deliveries all signs of a contracting economy...
Supplier Deliveries continue to slow for the 47th month, 50.3 vs 50.2.
Industries slowing: Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery; Fabricated Metal Products; and Chemical Products.
Pending Home Sales Apr -3.2% vs prior -4.9% Full Report
Inside the number: Yoy -10.2%. Ian Shepherdson of High Frequency Economics:
"There is absolutely nothing in these data to suggest that the end of the housing downturn is yet in sight".
West -10.2%; Northeast -10.4%; Midwest +2.3%; South +0.7%.
Auto & Truck Sales May
Chrysler +3.9%; breakout later today. Ford -6.9%; Trucks Flat, Autos -17.7%. GM later today.
Personal Income & Spending witness horrific stagflation and the results of the job base emasculation...
ISM showing slowing deliveries, decreased backlogs and lower inventories...
Pending home sales still falling as the housing market collapses... Auto sales headed down again.
Mich Sentiment-Rev. May 88.3 vs prior 88.7
Nonfarm Payrolls May +157K vs prior +88K - Full Report
Inside the number: Unemployment Rate steady May 4.5% vs prior 4.5%.
Durable Jobs Wave Bye: Goods Producing -19K; Construction FLAT; Manufacturing -19K; Durable Goods -15K; Transportation Equipment -10K; Retail trade -5K
McJobs Say Hi: Leisure & Hospitality +46K; Government +22K
Personal Income Apr -0.1% vs prior +0.8% Full Report
Inside the number: PCE Personal Spending Apr +0.5% vs prior +0.4%. Core PCE Inflation Apr +0.1% vs prior 0.0%.
Table 5: Non durable goods PCE averaging +0.7% over the last 6 months, thats 8.4% "advertised" stagflation, confirming the Q4 vs Q1 +8.7% rise.
But the real shop of horrors can be found in income & outlays Yoy Q106 vs Q107 Table 4:
Income: Compensation -20%; Private Industries -24%; Trade, Transportation & Utilities -63%; Goods Producing -69%; Manufacturing -71%.
Outlays: Durable Goods -60%; Non Durable Goods +30%; Services +67%.
To repeat: Yoy outlays for non durable goods +30% and services +67%, theres your stagflation.
Durable goods outlays -60% bears out the income declines and emasculation.
ISM Index May 55% vs prior 54.7 Full Report
Inside the number: new orders up 59.6% vs 58.5%; production up 58.3% vs 57.3%; employment down 51.9% vs 53.1%.
Prices paid index down 71% vs 73%; backlogs down 52.5 vs 54.5; inventory down 46.1% vs 46.3%, the 10th straight month of falling inventories.
Falling backlogs & inventories, slowing deliveries all signs of a contracting economy...
Supplier Deliveries continue to slow for the 47th month, 50.3 vs 50.2.
Industries slowing: Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery; Fabricated Metal Products; and Chemical Products.
Pending Home Sales Apr -3.2% vs prior -4.9% Full Report
Inside the number: Yoy -10.2%. Ian Shepherdson of High Frequency Economics:
"There is absolutely nothing in these data to suggest that the end of the housing downturn is yet in sight".
West -10.2%; Northeast -10.4%; Midwest +2.3%; South +0.7%.
Auto & Truck Sales May
Chrysler +3.9%; breakout later today. Ford -6.9%; Trucks Flat, Autos -17.7%. GM later today.
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