Economic Reports 06/28/07
Summary:Final Q1 GDP shows core PCE rising, real PCE raging, cap ex negative, John Q squeezed and the corporate turncoats on the verge of getting sucked down in the hole with him.
Initial claims shows a continuing bleed into sectors outside of housing.
Initial Claims 06/23 -13K to 323K Full Report
Inside the number: prior revised up 2K. 4 week MA +1K to 316K. Continuing claims -27K to 2.49M; 4 week MA +6.75K to 2.49M.
STATES WITH AN INCREASE OF MORE THAN 1,000
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State Change State Supplied Comment
NJ +1,023 transportation, warehousing, service
WI +2,027 transportation, warehousing, service, manufacturing
PA +4,217 petroleum, furniture, transportation, service
GDP-Final Q1 +0.7% vs prior est. +0.6% Full Report
Inside the number: Real GNP +0.8% vs Q4 +3.5% Chain Deflator-Final Q1 +4.2% vs prior +4.0%. Core Ex food & energy rising +2.9% vs Q4 +2.4%.
Real PCE raging +4.2% vs Q4 +4.2%; Durable goods +8.7%; Non durable +3.2%; Services+3.8%
Cap Ex dead: YOY % Change Real GNP; Gross Private Domestic Investment -6.4%; Fixed Capital Investment -4%; Residential Investment -16.4%
Deceleration in real GDP growth in the first quarter primarily reflected: an upturn in imports (+5.5% vs Q4 -2.6%), a deceleration in exports (+0.7% vs Q4 +10.6%).
A downturn in federal government spending (-3.9% vs Q4 +4.6%), and a deceleration in PCE for nondurable goods (+3.2% vs Q4 +5.9%).
A smaller decrease in residential fixed investment (-15.8% vs Q4 -19.8%), an acceleration in PCE for durable goods (+8.7% vs Q4 +4.4%) and an acceleration in PCE for services (+3.8% vs Q4 +3.4%).
Witness the money shufflers woes: Financial sector Q4 profit +$22.6B; Q1($ -23.8B), but I don't feel sorry for them...
These turncoats wiped out the service sectors contribution +1.57% with a -1.59% drag from a lack of private domestic investment due to greedy yield chasing, LBO, stock buyback, misallocation of capital.
Meanwhile, retail trade profits plunged from +$13.7B to (-$6.3B) evidencing John Q's pinched pocketbook. Further evidence of stagflation, squeezed margins & reduced unit consumption:
Classic Stagflation: durable goods expenditures % DOUBLED from 4.4% to +8.7%; as corporate profits from them SANK 35% from $19.3B to $5.9B; and the contribution to GNP was HALVED from 1.18% to 0.65%.
Rampant input & output price inflation: non durable goods expenditures decelerating from +5.9% to +3.2%, yet corporate profits from them ROSE from ($-26.7B) to +$15.7B.
John Q scrimping by on necessities: the non durable profit gains where ALL on petroleum, coal & chemical price increases, while profit on other non durables plunged from +$10.3B to ($-2.8B).
Initial claims shows a continuing bleed into sectors outside of housing.
Initial Claims 06/23 -13K to 323K Full Report
Inside the number: prior revised up 2K. 4 week MA +1K to 316K. Continuing claims -27K to 2.49M; 4 week MA +6.75K to 2.49M.
STATES WITH AN INCREASE OF MORE THAN 1,000
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State Change State Supplied Comment
NJ +1,023 transportation, warehousing, service
WI +2,027 transportation, warehousing, service, manufacturing
PA +4,217 petroleum, furniture, transportation, service
GDP-Final Q1 +0.7% vs prior est. +0.6% Full Report
Inside the number: Real GNP +0.8% vs Q4 +3.5% Chain Deflator-Final Q1 +4.2% vs prior +4.0%. Core Ex food & energy rising +2.9% vs Q4 +2.4%.
Real PCE raging +4.2% vs Q4 +4.2%; Durable goods +8.7%; Non durable +3.2%; Services+3.8%
Cap Ex dead: YOY % Change Real GNP; Gross Private Domestic Investment -6.4%; Fixed Capital Investment -4%; Residential Investment -16.4%
Deceleration in real GDP growth in the first quarter primarily reflected: an upturn in imports (+5.5% vs Q4 -2.6%), a deceleration in exports (+0.7% vs Q4 +10.6%).
A downturn in federal government spending (-3.9% vs Q4 +4.6%), and a deceleration in PCE for nondurable goods (+3.2% vs Q4 +5.9%).
A smaller decrease in residential fixed investment (-15.8% vs Q4 -19.8%), an acceleration in PCE for durable goods (+8.7% vs Q4 +4.4%) and an acceleration in PCE for services (+3.8% vs Q4 +3.4%).
Witness the money shufflers woes: Financial sector Q4 profit +$22.6B; Q1($ -23.8B), but I don't feel sorry for them...
These turncoats wiped out the service sectors contribution +1.57% with a -1.59% drag from a lack of private domestic investment due to greedy yield chasing, LBO, stock buyback, misallocation of capital.
Meanwhile, retail trade profits plunged from +$13.7B to (-$6.3B) evidencing John Q's pinched pocketbook. Further evidence of stagflation, squeezed margins & reduced unit consumption:
Classic Stagflation: durable goods expenditures % DOUBLED from 4.4% to +8.7%; as corporate profits from them SANK 35% from $19.3B to $5.9B; and the contribution to GNP was HALVED from 1.18% to 0.65%.
Rampant input & output price inflation: non durable goods expenditures decelerating from +5.9% to +3.2%, yet corporate profits from them ROSE from ($-26.7B) to +$15.7B.
John Q scrimping by on necessities: the non durable profit gains where ALL on petroleum, coal & chemical price increases, while profit on other non durables plunged from +$10.3B to ($-2.8B).
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