Economic Reports 07/26/07
Summary: Lower demand at 2 & 5 yr note auctions as foreigners back away.
Continuing unemployment worsens as the spillover from housing spreads further. Durable orders headline increase a head fake, as production slows down.
New housing sales plunge as the housing debacle continues, and folks, this is a wake up call, you haven't seen the worst yet.
Note Auctions
Light demand in the $18B 2 year note auction; bid to cover 2.59; indirect bidders 28%.
Slightly below average demand in the $13B 5 year note auction; bid cover 2.15 vs 2.40 average; indirect bidders 20% vs 26% average in the last 6 auctions.
Initial Claims 07/21 -2K at 301K vs prior 303K Full Report
Inside the number: prior revised up 2K from 301K. 4 week MA -4K at 308.5K.
Continuing unemployment -19K at 2.545M; 4 week MA +15K at 2.555M
STATES WITH AN INCREASE OF MORE THAN 1,000
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State Change State Supplied Comment
PA +1,290 trade, food, chemical, fabricated metals
VA +1,683 automobile, manufacturing
SC +4,813 manufacturing
AL +5,132 construction, apparel, wood products
GA +5,733 manufacturing
FL +6,028 construction, trade, service, manufacturing, agriculture
TN +6,749 transportation equipment, wood products
NC +12,842 construction, transportation equipment, textile, furniture,
lumber/wood, rubber/plastics
Durable Orders Jun +1.4% vs prior -2.4% Full Report
Inside the number: +1.4% increase on transportation +6.6% on +29% civilian aircraft orders.
Aside from airplanes total orders ex transportation -0.5%. Durable goods shipments confirming the drop off -1.1%.
Worse yet, non-defense capital goods orders ex-aircraft, -0.7% vs prior -1.5%; shipments -0.4%.
Motor vehicles -1.4%; computers & electronics -4.6%; communications equipment -13%.
FYI: inventories +0.2%, the 16th straight increase and at an all time high. Oh and defense orders -13.9%.
New Home Sales Jun -6.6% at 834K vs prior 915K Full Report
Inside the number: Median sales price -2.2%; Inventories of unsold homes unchanged at 537K, increasing to a 7.8 months supply vs 7.4.
Days on market increased to 6 months, the highest since 1992; up from 4.3 months at the end of 06. And here follows the carnage, read it and weep...
Sales June vs May: NE -27.1%; MW -17.1%; S +7.6%; W -22.5%
Sales YOY: Total -22.3%; NE 0%; MW -28.4%; S -12.9%; W -42.8%
Sales YTD: Total -22%; NE +12.7%; MW -23.6%; S -19.9%; W -32.8%
Stu Hoffman. chief economist for PNC: "Home building, sales and prices have not hit the ground floor."
Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisers: "The industry forgot to pack a parachute, and the ground is coming up fast."
Economist Mark Zandi of Moody's Economy.com: "it'll be 2010 before the market turns around."
Continuing unemployment worsens as the spillover from housing spreads further. Durable orders headline increase a head fake, as production slows down.
New housing sales plunge as the housing debacle continues, and folks, this is a wake up call, you haven't seen the worst yet.
Note Auctions
Light demand in the $18B 2 year note auction; bid to cover 2.59; indirect bidders 28%.
Slightly below average demand in the $13B 5 year note auction; bid cover 2.15 vs 2.40 average; indirect bidders 20% vs 26% average in the last 6 auctions.
Initial Claims 07/21 -2K at 301K vs prior 303K Full Report
Inside the number: prior revised up 2K from 301K. 4 week MA -4K at 308.5K.
Continuing unemployment -19K at 2.545M; 4 week MA +15K at 2.555M
STATES WITH AN INCREASE OF MORE THAN 1,000
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
State Change State Supplied Comment
PA +1,290 trade, food, chemical, fabricated metals
VA +1,683 automobile, manufacturing
SC +4,813 manufacturing
AL +5,132 construction, apparel, wood products
GA +5,733 manufacturing
FL +6,028 construction, trade, service, manufacturing, agriculture
TN +6,749 transportation equipment, wood products
NC +12,842 construction, transportation equipment, textile, furniture,
lumber/wood, rubber/plastics
Durable Orders Jun +1.4% vs prior -2.4% Full Report
Inside the number: +1.4% increase on transportation +6.6% on +29% civilian aircraft orders.
Aside from airplanes total orders ex transportation -0.5%. Durable goods shipments confirming the drop off -1.1%.
Worse yet, non-defense capital goods orders ex-aircraft, -0.7% vs prior -1.5%; shipments -0.4%.
Motor vehicles -1.4%; computers & electronics -4.6%; communications equipment -13%.
FYI: inventories +0.2%, the 16th straight increase and at an all time high. Oh and defense orders -13.9%.
New Home Sales Jun -6.6% at 834K vs prior 915K Full Report
Inside the number: Median sales price -2.2%; Inventories of unsold homes unchanged at 537K, increasing to a 7.8 months supply vs 7.4.
Days on market increased to 6 months, the highest since 1992; up from 4.3 months at the end of 06. And here follows the carnage, read it and weep...
Sales June vs May: NE -27.1%; MW -17.1%; S +7.6%; W -22.5%
Sales YOY: Total -22.3%; NE 0%; MW -28.4%; S -12.9%; W -42.8%
Sales YTD: Total -22%; NE +12.7%; MW -23.6%; S -19.9%; W -32.8%
Stu Hoffman. chief economist for PNC: "Home building, sales and prices have not hit the ground floor."
Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisers: "The industry forgot to pack a parachute, and the ground is coming up fast."
Economist Mark Zandi of Moody's Economy.com: "it'll be 2010 before the market turns around."
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