Market Soapbox 07/11/07

WEN, rebound, DJIA +76 on below average volume with OK internals. All UP cept SOXX, XAU.

Bonds down 10 yr yield +5bps 5.08, $ down vs 1.3753E & up vs 122.22Y, WTI crude down $72.56, gold down $662.1.

Last night afterhours volume spike NYSE & AMEX both +1 Billion shares. $ at a 26 year low vs Sterling Pound.

Fed Governor Warsh and Treasury undersecretary Steel parroting Philly Fed Head Plosser's sanguine remarks that...

turmoil in subprime is not causing systemic risks. Alrighty then, ignore the man behind the curtain...

The SEC's market regulation chief saying that the Bear Stearns hedge funds facing severe liquidity issues will be able to "unwind in an orderly fashion". OK.

Bear Stearns confirming it will offload about $450 M of securities tied to one of its troubled hedge funds. More to come.

Loans originated by General Electric, WMC Mortgage, WaMu's Long Beach Mortgage, Fremont General & New Century accounted for 60% of today's bond downgrades by Moody's. Right.

Homebuilder Ryland Group said Q2 EPS will be negative $1.25 to $1.35 per share as sales look like they'll be off 17% from a year ago. Got it.

Finally some reality from NAR: expect prices for existing homes to fall 5.6% for 2007, a worse decline than the previous forecast of a 4.6% drop.

Hope springs eternal: NAR expects existing home prices to be flat in Q1 of next year.

Q2 statistics show existing home sales have fallen to 5.96M annual sales pace. The 1st time in 4 years that a quarterly pace has fallen below 6 M. Thanks.

Today, $4.5B in Fed reanimation. NDX 1971 to 1984; SP500 1510 to 1518, DJUA 500 to 503, SOXX 517 to 516 as all the money went to equities while bonds fell.

Churning sideways & rangebound since 05/18/07. Until SP500 closes above 1550 for 2 days...

we reserve judgment on an overall change in market direction. Often wrong, but never in doubt, this is the Nattering Naybob and your not!

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