Economic Reports 08/24/07

Summary: Durable orders showing life, but still down YOY.

New Home Sales up on anomalous spike from liquidations out West; YTD West sales still -30% with time on market still growing.

Durable Orders Jul +5.9% vs prior +1.9%
Full Report

Inside the number: Prior revised up from +1.4%. Shipments +3.8%; Unfilled orders +2.4%; Inventories +0.1%.

Defense orders +35.7%; Ex-transport's +10.8% gain; durable orders +3.7%. Core capital goods (non defense & non aircraft) +2.2%; shipments +0.5%.

YOY Core Capital Goods: Orders -1.3%; Shipments -1.2%; Unfilled orders +16.5%; Inventories +5.2%

New Home Sales Jul +2.8% @ 870K vs prior 834K
Full Report

Inside the number: A curiously large spike in sales out West; NE-24%; MW -0.9%; S +0.6%; W +22.4%.

YOY Sales -10%; YTD Sales -20.9%; NE +12.2%; MW -24%; S -18.8%; W -30.5%. Median months to sale Sept 06 only 3.4; this month jumping to new high at 6.1.

After this month's large blip in the West, can't wait to see next months revised number.

The Nattering One muses... August New & Existing Home Sales will yield a false positive for housing recovery. Why?

Anyone locked in before Jumbo money went to 8% early Aug, panicked and pulled the trigger. Sept post 8% numbers will be a disaster.

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