Economic Reports 08/30/07
Summary: Unemployment worsens further. GDP Headline read "happy daze are here again."
A peek under the sheets shows, advertised non durable goods inflation hits double digits while the last wheel in the real economy is about to hit the skids.
Initial Claims 08/25 +9K to 334K Full Report
Inside the number: prior revised up 3K to 325K. 4 week MA +6.25K to 324.5K.
Continuing unemployment +13K to 2.579 M; 4 week MA +11.25K to 2.561M
STATES WITH AN INCREASE OF MORE THAN 1,000
State Change State Supplied Comment
FL +1,304 construction, trade, service, agriculture.
MI +3,254 automobile
GDP-Prel. Q2 +4% vs prior +3.4% Full Report
Inside the number: A large increase over initial estimates and Q1 +0.4% with...
personal consumption expenditures (PCE) for services, exports, nonresidential structures and government defense spending rising...
with a negative contribution from residential fixed investment.
A GDP increase based on one illusory improvement trade balance and two transitory improvements, business investment & government spending.
Trade Balance, exports +7.6% exporting stagflated prices, while imports -3.2% vs Q1 +3.9%.
How big is the import drop off? % change in price index for imported goods: Q1 +.07%; Q2 +12.8%. Prices rose double digits while total imports declined.
We are importing forex profit on a declining dollar, while a slowing economy imports less, this will eventually effect our trade partners.
Business investment +11.1% vs Q1 +2.1%, riding the biggest increase in investments in commercial buildings in 26 years +27.7%.
However, non residential is in decline and about to roll over... % change in price index for non residential structures:
Q405 +17.6%; Q106 +13%; Q206 +10.7%; Q306 +5.6%; Q406 +4.6%; Q107 +4.1%; Q207 -1.5%.
Government spending Q2 vs Q1: +4.1% vs -0.5%; on national defense +8.6% vs -10.8%; meanwhile non defense spending cutbacks +0.5% vs +3.8%
The economy since 2001; investments in residences -11.6%, after four quarters of even larger declines.
How bad is it? YOY % change: Gross domestic private investment -5.7%; Fixed investment -3.3%; Residential -16.4%
John Q, as disposable personal income shrinks +0.1% vs Q1 +5.4%, he's pulling back further:
Spending on services Q2 vs Q1: +2.3% vs +3.1%; durable goods +1.7% vs +8.8% nondurable goods -0.3% vs +3.1%, the weakest in 14 years.
How bad is it? Spending in Chained 2000 Billions of Dollars Q2 vs Q1:
Durable goods +5.2 vs +25.6; motor vehicles -3.2 vs +11.9; Non durable goods -2.1 vs +17.8; Services +26 vs +35.2
Inventories ramping up or backing up? Non farm +$6.1 Billion vs -$19.4 Billion
Stagflation: Q2 PCE +4.2% vs +3.5%; Durable goods -1.4%; Service prices +2.6%; Non durable goods +10%. Yet, Market based PCE ex food & energy: +1.1%
A peek under the sheets shows, advertised non durable goods inflation hits double digits while the last wheel in the real economy is about to hit the skids.
Initial Claims 08/25 +9K to 334K Full Report
Inside the number: prior revised up 3K to 325K. 4 week MA +6.25K to 324.5K.
Continuing unemployment +13K to 2.579 M; 4 week MA +11.25K to 2.561M
STATES WITH AN INCREASE OF MORE THAN 1,000
State Change State Supplied Comment
FL +1,304 construction, trade, service, agriculture.
MI +3,254 automobile
GDP-Prel. Q2 +4% vs prior +3.4% Full Report
Inside the number: A large increase over initial estimates and Q1 +0.4% with...
personal consumption expenditures (PCE) for services, exports, nonresidential structures and government defense spending rising...
with a negative contribution from residential fixed investment.
A GDP increase based on one illusory improvement trade balance and two transitory improvements, business investment & government spending.
Trade Balance, exports +7.6% exporting stagflated prices, while imports -3.2% vs Q1 +3.9%.
How big is the import drop off? % change in price index for imported goods: Q1 +.07%; Q2 +12.8%. Prices rose double digits while total imports declined.
We are importing forex profit on a declining dollar, while a slowing economy imports less, this will eventually effect our trade partners.
Business investment +11.1% vs Q1 +2.1%, riding the biggest increase in investments in commercial buildings in 26 years +27.7%.
However, non residential is in decline and about to roll over... % change in price index for non residential structures:
Q405 +17.6%; Q106 +13%; Q206 +10.7%; Q306 +5.6%; Q406 +4.6%; Q107 +4.1%; Q207 -1.5%.
Government spending Q2 vs Q1: +4.1% vs -0.5%; on national defense +8.6% vs -10.8%; meanwhile non defense spending cutbacks +0.5% vs +3.8%
The economy since 2001; investments in residences -11.6%, after four quarters of even larger declines.
How bad is it? YOY % change: Gross domestic private investment -5.7%; Fixed investment -3.3%; Residential -16.4%
John Q, as disposable personal income shrinks +0.1% vs Q1 +5.4%, he's pulling back further:
Spending on services Q2 vs Q1: +2.3% vs +3.1%; durable goods +1.7% vs +8.8% nondurable goods -0.3% vs +3.1%, the weakest in 14 years.
How bad is it? Spending in Chained 2000 Billions of Dollars Q2 vs Q1:
Durable goods +5.2 vs +25.6; motor vehicles -3.2 vs +11.9; Non durable goods -2.1 vs +17.8; Services +26 vs +35.2
Inventories ramping up or backing up? Non farm +$6.1 Billion vs -$19.4 Billion
Stagflation: Q2 PCE +4.2% vs +3.5%; Durable goods -1.4%; Service prices +2.6%; Non durable goods +10%. Yet, Market based PCE ex food & energy: +1.1%
Comments