Market Soapbox 08/06/08
MON, undoing Friday, DJIA +287 on high volume with nice internals. All UP cept XAU.
Bonds down, 10 yr yield +6 bps 4.74, $ down vs 1.3788E & up vs 119.075Y, WTI crude down BIG -4.5% $72.06, gold down $683.3
Oil futures fell 4.5% on speculation that consumption will decline as the economy slows further.
Fed funds futures prices suggest traders see a 100% probability the Fed will lower rates at its Oct. 31 meeting.
In June, Merrill Lynch chief economist David Rosenberg said the central bank wouldn't lower borrowing costs until next year.
Today, Mr. Rosenberg is officially in the Naybob zone, calling for an October rate cut.
Last Wend: "This ride ends late Friday or early Monday; also this market goes nowhere until $ vs Yen crossover gets back to 120, watch it."
Friday: "We sense a bottom forming at NDX 1895 & SP500 1420, however..."
Today, $0.5B in Fed Open Market Reanimation; volatility falling 7%, VIX 25.16 to 23.22; the Yen falling past 119; as the carry traders returned to save the day.
SP500 hit 1427, then 250 DMA 1425 gave it support to rise 40 pts. NDX hit 1912 missing our magic number 100 DMA 1895, then rising to 1954.
DJIA rose 220 & SP500 28 pts in the last 2 hours. 10 year & 30 year auctions; FOMC & housing stocks; combine with options unwind this week.
Fri & Today's action or inflection point indicates that perhaps the worst is over. To confirm, SP500 needs to close above 1470 2 straight days.
Max Pain is ABOVE at 1525-1530 and "bargain" hunters could run this market right back up to it in the blink of an eye.
Then again, this market is tip toeing through a wired mine field, just one debt market misstep or failure and its BOOM, up in smoke and fragged again.
Often wrong, but never in doubt, this is the Nattering Naybob and your not!
Bonds down, 10 yr yield +6 bps 4.74, $ down vs 1.3788E & up vs 119.075Y, WTI crude down BIG -4.5% $72.06, gold down $683.3
Oil futures fell 4.5% on speculation that consumption will decline as the economy slows further.
Fed funds futures prices suggest traders see a 100% probability the Fed will lower rates at its Oct. 31 meeting.
In June, Merrill Lynch chief economist David Rosenberg said the central bank wouldn't lower borrowing costs until next year.
Today, Mr. Rosenberg is officially in the Naybob zone, calling for an October rate cut.
Last Wend: "This ride ends late Friday or early Monday; also this market goes nowhere until $ vs Yen crossover gets back to 120, watch it."
Friday: "We sense a bottom forming at NDX 1895 & SP500 1420, however..."
Today, $0.5B in Fed Open Market Reanimation; volatility falling 7%, VIX 25.16 to 23.22; the Yen falling past 119; as the carry traders returned to save the day.
SP500 hit 1427, then 250 DMA 1425 gave it support to rise 40 pts. NDX hit 1912 missing our magic number 100 DMA 1895, then rising to 1954.
DJIA rose 220 & SP500 28 pts in the last 2 hours. 10 year & 30 year auctions; FOMC & housing stocks; combine with options unwind this week.
Fri & Today's action or inflection point indicates that perhaps the worst is over. To confirm, SP500 needs to close above 1470 2 straight days.
Max Pain is ABOVE at 1525-1530 and "bargain" hunters could run this market right back up to it in the blink of an eye.
Then again, this market is tip toeing through a wired mine field, just one debt market misstep or failure and its BOOM, up in smoke and fragged again.
Often wrong, but never in doubt, this is the Nattering Naybob and your not!
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