Economic Reports 09/14/07
Summary: Consumer sentiment improves on good meds. Retail sales ex auto & gasoline plunging as John Q pulls back further, confirming also
Industrial production with severe output declines and a three month downtrend. Business sales & inventories painting a grim 2 month picture.
Ex fuel import & export prices up across the board, near double digit YOY stagflation imbedded in the numbers.
Mich Sentiment-Prel. Sep 83.8 vs prior 83.4
Consumer sedation improving as the "Paxil for lunch bunch" does believe what they are told. Must be all that Starbucks coffee, Xanax, Prosac and Zoloft.
Retail Sales Aug +0.3% vs prior +0.5% Full Report
Inside the number: Auto sales +2.8%; Retail Sales ex-auto -0.4% vs prior +0.4%. Retail Sales ex auto & gasoline -0.1% vs prior +0.8%.
In the past year, NOT adjusted for inflation, retail sales +3.7%; ex-auto +3.9%. Retail sales account for 33% of GDP and 50% of consumer spending.
Industrial Production Aug +0.2% vs prior +0.5% Full Report
Inside the number: Production of: overall manufacturing -0.3%; consumer non durable goods ex-energy -0.3%;
Jun, Jul, Aug Down Trend: Overall Output +0.6%; +0.5%; +0.2%; Consumer goods +0.6%; +0.4%; +0.1%. Final products +0.7%; +0.6%; Zero. Durable goods +1.8%; +0.7%; -1%.
Slowing drastically: automotive -3.7%; finished goods -0.8% vs prior +0.9%, a 1.1% decline; ex high tech durables -0.5% vs prior +0.8%, a 1.3% decline.
Ex auto business equipment -0.3% vs prior +1.3%, a 1.6% decline. Industrial business equipment -0.6% vs prior +1.7%, a 2.3% decline.
Grinding to a HALT: non energy material inputs to finished goods processors -0.5% vs prior +1.7%, a 2.2% decline.
Capacity Utilization Flat Aug 82.2% vs prior 82.2%. Joshua Shapiro at MFR:
"Looking ahead, an increasingly constrained consumer and deepening woes for the housing sector will restrain manufacturing gains even as export growth remains strong."
Business Inventories Jul +0.5% vs prior +0.4% Full Report
Inside the number: Seasonally adjusted sales +1.1% vs prior -0.3%;
However, unadjusted shows a grim two month picture in which only the retail level showed "improvement" on blow out sales.
July vs June Sales
Total Business -5.2% vs -1.3%; Inventories +0.2% vs -0.1%
Manufacturing -9.9% vs +1.6%; Inventories +1.3% vs -0.9%
Retailers -1.4% vs -4.3%; Inventories -1.3% vs -0.1%
Wholesale -3.2% vs -1.8%; Inventories +0.4% vs +0.9%
Import Prices ex-oil Aug -0.1% vs prior +0.1% Full Report
Inside the number: Overall Import prices down on a 1.3% decline in petroleum prices, and 12.9% decline in natural gas prices.
Ex fuel import prices +0.2%; major finished goods +0.2%; capital goods +0.2%; automotive +0.2%; foods +0.7%.
YOY import prices: Ag. +9.8%; Food +8%; Veggies +16.3%; Industrial supplies durable +7.7%; ex petroleum +6.1%; non durable ex petroluem +3.7%.
Export Prices ex-ag. Aug +0.1% vs prior -0.2%; capital goods, automotive & foods all +0.1%. Overall exports +0.2% vs prior -0.1%. Ag exports +1%.
YOY export prices: Non manufactured +12.2%; Ag +17.6%; Food +16.6%; Fruit +17.5%; Veggies -13% WTF???; Industrial supplies; durable +6.3%; non durable +4.4%.
Industrial production with severe output declines and a three month downtrend. Business sales & inventories painting a grim 2 month picture.
Ex fuel import & export prices up across the board, near double digit YOY stagflation imbedded in the numbers.
Mich Sentiment-Prel. Sep 83.8 vs prior 83.4
Consumer sedation improving as the "Paxil for lunch bunch" does believe what they are told. Must be all that Starbucks coffee, Xanax, Prosac and Zoloft.
Retail Sales Aug +0.3% vs prior +0.5% Full Report
Inside the number: Auto sales +2.8%; Retail Sales ex-auto -0.4% vs prior +0.4%. Retail Sales ex auto & gasoline -0.1% vs prior +0.8%.
In the past year, NOT adjusted for inflation, retail sales +3.7%; ex-auto +3.9%. Retail sales account for 33% of GDP and 50% of consumer spending.
Industrial Production Aug +0.2% vs prior +0.5% Full Report
Inside the number: Production of: overall manufacturing -0.3%; consumer non durable goods ex-energy -0.3%;
Jun, Jul, Aug Down Trend: Overall Output +0.6%; +0.5%; +0.2%; Consumer goods +0.6%; +0.4%; +0.1%. Final products +0.7%; +0.6%; Zero. Durable goods +1.8%; +0.7%; -1%.
Slowing drastically: automotive -3.7%; finished goods -0.8% vs prior +0.9%, a 1.1% decline; ex high tech durables -0.5% vs prior +0.8%, a 1.3% decline.
Ex auto business equipment -0.3% vs prior +1.3%, a 1.6% decline. Industrial business equipment -0.6% vs prior +1.7%, a 2.3% decline.
Grinding to a HALT: non energy material inputs to finished goods processors -0.5% vs prior +1.7%, a 2.2% decline.
Capacity Utilization Flat Aug 82.2% vs prior 82.2%. Joshua Shapiro at MFR:
"Looking ahead, an increasingly constrained consumer and deepening woes for the housing sector will restrain manufacturing gains even as export growth remains strong."
Business Inventories Jul +0.5% vs prior +0.4% Full Report
Inside the number: Seasonally adjusted sales +1.1% vs prior -0.3%;
However, unadjusted shows a grim two month picture in which only the retail level showed "improvement" on blow out sales.
July vs June Sales
Total Business -5.2% vs -1.3%; Inventories +0.2% vs -0.1%
Manufacturing -9.9% vs +1.6%; Inventories +1.3% vs -0.9%
Retailers -1.4% vs -4.3%; Inventories -1.3% vs -0.1%
Wholesale -3.2% vs -1.8%; Inventories +0.4% vs +0.9%
Import Prices ex-oil Aug -0.1% vs prior +0.1% Full Report
Inside the number: Overall Import prices down on a 1.3% decline in petroleum prices, and 12.9% decline in natural gas prices.
Ex fuel import prices +0.2%; major finished goods +0.2%; capital goods +0.2%; automotive +0.2%; foods +0.7%.
YOY import prices: Ag. +9.8%; Food +8%; Veggies +16.3%; Industrial supplies durable +7.7%; ex petroleum +6.1%; non durable ex petroluem +3.7%.
Export Prices ex-ag. Aug +0.1% vs prior -0.2%; capital goods, automotive & foods all +0.1%. Overall exports +0.2% vs prior -0.1%. Ag exports +1%.
YOY export prices: Non manufactured +12.2%; Ag +17.6%; Food +16.6%; Fruit +17.5%; Veggies -13% WTF???; Industrial supplies; durable +6.3%; non durable +4.4%.
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