Economic Reports 10/12/07
Summary: Wholesale Inventories (ex manufacturing) showing good headline news, its going out the door, sales outstripping inventory build.
The bad news, its out the door and over a cliff, sales are downtrending, unadjusted numbers went over a cliff in almost every category.
Fyi, inventory isn't building because new orders and production have slowed to a crawl, layoffs are next.
Import and Export Prices a benign headline number, under the sheets ragin double digit energy & food based price stagflation.
Initial cliams headline number improves across the board.
Bad news, YOY unemployment increased across the board, worse than advertised as many long term claims have fallen "out of the number".
Trade Balance deficit declines showing record exports.
Bad news, our industrial slow down is evident with inflation adjusted YTD industrial supplies imports declining by $3 Billion.
Treasury Budget deficit declined, but still in the red YTD $163 Billion.
Retail sales headline number up, discretionary spending declining and YTD department store sales off 2%. Advance numbers show a 7% ex auto decline in the works.
PPI still screamin double digit stagflation with crude core goods jumping 1.6% in a month. Business Inventories confirms a slow down at the manufacturing end.
Wholesale Inventories Aug 0.1% vs prior 0.2% Full Report
Inside the number: Inventories +0.1%; YOY +4.4%; Durable goods +0.4%; YOY +1.9%; Non durable -0.4%; YOY +8.9%.
Sales +0.4% vs +0.1% YOY +6.8%; Durable goods +0.9%; YOY +4.4%; Non durable goods -0.1%; YOY +9.1%
Unadjusted Sales: Automotive -2.9% vs +7.2%; Furniture -1.1% vs +5%; Lumber -5.9% vs +7%; Professional Equip. -10.5% vs +8.3%; Computer Equip. -16% vs +5.4%.
Declines in Apparel, Groceries & Farm Products.
Misc. Durables -9.6% vs +12.5%; Misc Non Durables -8.7% vs prior +3%.
Export Prices ex-ag. Sep 0.0% vs prior +0.1% Full Report
Inside the number: Import Prices ex-oil Sep -0.2% vs prior -0.1%.
All imports YOY: +5.2%; Petroleum +20%. Ag +10.5%; Industrial supplies +12%; Non manufactured +18.1%; Food +11%
All exports YOY: +4.5%; Ag exports +35.4%; Food 22.6%; Industrial supplies +6.6%; Non manufactured +22.7%.
Initial Claims 10/06 -12K 308K vs prior 320K Full Report
Inside the number: 4 week MA -3K 310K vs 313K; Continuing Unemployment -15K at 2.521M; 4 week MA -19K at 2.535M
YOY Continuing claims +90K 2.521M vs 2.431M; 4 week MA +96K 2.535M vs 2.439M
Trade Balance Aug -$57.6B vs prior -$59B Full Report
Inside the number: Price inflation accounts for most of the increases noted in the report with the exceptiong of chained 2000 dollars.
Sequential declines: exports: automotive -$1 Billion; capital goods -$0.2 Billion. Imports: industrial supplies -$0.7 Billion; automotive -$0.4 Billion; and consumer goods -$0.2 Billion.
YOY declines very telling: imports of industrial supplies -$1.8 Billion. In chained 2000 dollars YOY declines in imports of automotive -$0.4 Billion.
YTD decline in industrial supplies imports (Exhibit 13) -$3 Billion; in chained dollars (Exhibit 10) -$9 Billion.
Really bad news: These figures include petroleum products at today's higher prices.
Treasury Budget Sep +$111.6B vs -$116.9B Full Report
Inside the number: YTD deficit -$162.8B vs prior year -$248.2B
Retail Sales Sep +0.6% vs prior +0.3% Full Report
Inside the number: ex-auto Sep +0.4% vs prior -0.4%. Clothing & accessories -0.4% vs prior -0.2%; Sporting goods -0.7% vs prior -0.1%; General Merchandise stores -0.1% vs prior +0.3%.
Misc store retailers -1.3% vs prior +0.8%; Department stores -0.5% vs prior -0.3%; YTD 2.2%.
Worse yet, the unadjusted advance numbers show a precipitous ex auto drop of 7.43%.
PPI Sep +1.1% vs prior -1.4% Full Report
Inside the number: Core PPI Sep +0.1% vs prior +0.2%. Gasoline +8.4%.
Crude goods +0.1%; Crude Core Goods +1.6%; Intermediate +0.4%; Commodities +0.6%; Industrial Commodities +0.5%.
9 month YTD increases: materials for non durable manufacturing +10.6%; finished energy goods +11.4%; intermediate foods +16.9%; crude non food less energy +21.6%.
YOY changes: Non durable goods less food +7%; crude non food materials ex fuel +19.6%; crude materials less energy +20.5%.
More YOY: eggs +83%; flour +39%; chicken +14%; dairy +28%; milk +68%; wheat +86%; corn +50%; gasoline +22%; computers -23%;
Business Inventories Aug +0.1% vs prior +0.5% Full Report
Inside the number: Sales -0.4% vs prior +1.1%.
Manufacturers Sales -1.6% vs +2.3%; YOY -0.4%. Inventories -0.1% vs +0.1%; YOY +2.4%
Retailers Sales +0.3% vs +0.6%; YOY +3.6%. Inventories +0.5% vs +1%; YOY +2.6%
Wholesalers Sales +0.4% vs +0.2%; YOY +6.8%. Inventories +0.1 vs +0.2%; YOY +4.4
The bad news, its out the door and over a cliff, sales are downtrending, unadjusted numbers went over a cliff in almost every category.
Fyi, inventory isn't building because new orders and production have slowed to a crawl, layoffs are next.
Import and Export Prices a benign headline number, under the sheets ragin double digit energy & food based price stagflation.
Initial cliams headline number improves across the board.
Bad news, YOY unemployment increased across the board, worse than advertised as many long term claims have fallen "out of the number".
Trade Balance deficit declines showing record exports.
Bad news, our industrial slow down is evident with inflation adjusted YTD industrial supplies imports declining by $3 Billion.
Treasury Budget deficit declined, but still in the red YTD $163 Billion.
Retail sales headline number up, discretionary spending declining and YTD department store sales off 2%. Advance numbers show a 7% ex auto decline in the works.
PPI still screamin double digit stagflation with crude core goods jumping 1.6% in a month. Business Inventories confirms a slow down at the manufacturing end.
Wholesale Inventories Aug 0.1% vs prior 0.2% Full Report
Inside the number: Inventories +0.1%; YOY +4.4%; Durable goods +0.4%; YOY +1.9%; Non durable -0.4%; YOY +8.9%.
Sales +0.4% vs +0.1% YOY +6.8%; Durable goods +0.9%; YOY +4.4%; Non durable goods -0.1%; YOY +9.1%
Unadjusted Sales: Automotive -2.9% vs +7.2%; Furniture -1.1% vs +5%; Lumber -5.9% vs +7%; Professional Equip. -10.5% vs +8.3%; Computer Equip. -16% vs +5.4%.
Declines in Apparel, Groceries & Farm Products.
Misc. Durables -9.6% vs +12.5%; Misc Non Durables -8.7% vs prior +3%.
Export Prices ex-ag. Sep 0.0% vs prior +0.1% Full Report
Inside the number: Import Prices ex-oil Sep -0.2% vs prior -0.1%.
All imports YOY: +5.2%; Petroleum +20%. Ag +10.5%; Industrial supplies +12%; Non manufactured +18.1%; Food +11%
All exports YOY: +4.5%; Ag exports +35.4%; Food 22.6%; Industrial supplies +6.6%; Non manufactured +22.7%.
Initial Claims 10/06 -12K 308K vs prior 320K Full Report
Inside the number: 4 week MA -3K 310K vs 313K; Continuing Unemployment -15K at 2.521M; 4 week MA -19K at 2.535M
YOY Continuing claims +90K 2.521M vs 2.431M; 4 week MA +96K 2.535M vs 2.439M
Trade Balance Aug -$57.6B vs prior -$59B Full Report
Inside the number: Price inflation accounts for most of the increases noted in the report with the exceptiong of chained 2000 dollars.
Sequential declines: exports: automotive -$1 Billion; capital goods -$0.2 Billion. Imports: industrial supplies -$0.7 Billion; automotive -$0.4 Billion; and consumer goods -$0.2 Billion.
YOY declines very telling: imports of industrial supplies -$1.8 Billion. In chained 2000 dollars YOY declines in imports of automotive -$0.4 Billion.
YTD decline in industrial supplies imports (Exhibit 13) -$3 Billion; in chained dollars (Exhibit 10) -$9 Billion.
Really bad news: These figures include petroleum products at today's higher prices.
Treasury Budget Sep +$111.6B vs -$116.9B Full Report
Inside the number: YTD deficit -$162.8B vs prior year -$248.2B
Retail Sales Sep +0.6% vs prior +0.3% Full Report
Inside the number: ex-auto Sep +0.4% vs prior -0.4%. Clothing & accessories -0.4% vs prior -0.2%; Sporting goods -0.7% vs prior -0.1%; General Merchandise stores -0.1% vs prior +0.3%.
Misc store retailers -1.3% vs prior +0.8%; Department stores -0.5% vs prior -0.3%; YTD 2.2%.
Worse yet, the unadjusted advance numbers show a precipitous ex auto drop of 7.43%.
PPI Sep +1.1% vs prior -1.4% Full Report
Inside the number: Core PPI Sep +0.1% vs prior +0.2%. Gasoline +8.4%.
Crude goods +0.1%; Crude Core Goods +1.6%; Intermediate +0.4%; Commodities +0.6%; Industrial Commodities +0.5%.
9 month YTD increases: materials for non durable manufacturing +10.6%; finished energy goods +11.4%; intermediate foods +16.9%; crude non food less energy +21.6%.
YOY changes: Non durable goods less food +7%; crude non food materials ex fuel +19.6%; crude materials less energy +20.5%.
More YOY: eggs +83%; flour +39%; chicken +14%; dairy +28%; milk +68%; wheat +86%; corn +50%; gasoline +22%; computers -23%;
Business Inventories Aug +0.1% vs prior +0.5% Full Report
Inside the number: Sales -0.4% vs prior +1.1%.
Manufacturers Sales -1.6% vs +2.3%; YOY -0.4%. Inventories -0.1% vs +0.1%; YOY +2.4%
Retailers Sales +0.3% vs +0.6%; YOY +3.6%. Inventories +0.5% vs +1%; YOY +2.6%
Wholesalers Sales +0.4% vs +0.2%; YOY +6.8%. Inventories +0.1 vs +0.2%; YOY +4.4
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