Economic Reports 01/03/08
Summary: As the housing ATM got shut off while stagflation ran rampant, auto & truck sales hit a 10 year low.
Factory Orders headline up, under the sheets, sinking into service based oblivion, the 4th straight decline in manufactured durables and consumer durable goods orders.
Corn ethanol stagflation... Monsanto tripled Q1 YOY net income on a 36% increase in sales from a strong demand for corn seed.
Auto & Truck Sales
Ford -9.2%; YTD -12% as Toyota overtook Ford for #2 in the US. GM will also post a decline for December and the year.
Sales declined in 9 of the 12 months in 2007 as the housing debacle and energy based stagflation (crude oil & corn based ethanol boosted gasoline 31% & food 40%)...
bled into the economy and Americans bought the fewest automobiles since 1998.
Pete Hastings, a fixed income analyst at Morgan Keegan:
"When the consumer gets squeezed, he gets squeezed in all areas and that will include car and truck sales.
It's going to be a brutal year for autos, we're headed into a recession."
Factory Orders Nov +1.5% vs prior +0.7% Full Report
Inside the number: The 4th consecutive decline in new orders of manufactured durables;
revised down from +0.1% to -0.1% vs prior -0.5%; shipments -0.1%; inventories +0.7%.
Table 1: All shipments, ex transport, ex defense, with unfilled orders-0.1% vs Oct 0.0% vs Sept -1%; durable goods -0.1% vs Oct +0.5% vs Sept -1.8%.
Table 2: All new orders, ex transport, ex defense, with unfilled orders -0.1% vs Oct -0.7% vs Sept -0.9%; durable goods -0.1% vs Oct -0.5% vs Sept -1.4%.
Table 5: New orders; non defense capital goods ex aircraft -0.1% vs Oct -3% vs Sept +1.4%; consumer durable goods -0.4% vs Oct -0.6% vs Sept -2.8%
Factory Orders headline up, under the sheets, sinking into service based oblivion, the 4th straight decline in manufactured durables and consumer durable goods orders.
Corn ethanol stagflation... Monsanto tripled Q1 YOY net income on a 36% increase in sales from a strong demand for corn seed.
Auto & Truck Sales
Ford -9.2%; YTD -12% as Toyota overtook Ford for #2 in the US. GM will also post a decline for December and the year.
Sales declined in 9 of the 12 months in 2007 as the housing debacle and energy based stagflation (crude oil & corn based ethanol boosted gasoline 31% & food 40%)...
bled into the economy and Americans bought the fewest automobiles since 1998.
Pete Hastings, a fixed income analyst at Morgan Keegan:
"When the consumer gets squeezed, he gets squeezed in all areas and that will include car and truck sales.
It's going to be a brutal year for autos, we're headed into a recession."
Factory Orders Nov +1.5% vs prior +0.7% Full Report
Inside the number: The 4th consecutive decline in new orders of manufactured durables;
revised down from +0.1% to -0.1% vs prior -0.5%; shipments -0.1%; inventories +0.7%.
Table 1: All shipments, ex transport, ex defense, with unfilled orders-0.1% vs Oct 0.0% vs Sept -1%; durable goods -0.1% vs Oct +0.5% vs Sept -1.8%.
Table 2: All new orders, ex transport, ex defense, with unfilled orders -0.1% vs Oct -0.7% vs Sept -0.9%; durable goods -0.1% vs Oct -0.5% vs Sept -1.4%.
Table 5: New orders; non defense capital goods ex aircraft -0.1% vs Oct -3% vs Sept +1.4%; consumer durable goods -0.4% vs Oct -0.6% vs Sept -2.8%
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