Economic Reports 01/15/08

Summary: Retail sales decline shows John Q pulling back further.

PPI confirms double digit stagflation at 13.3% in Q4 and rising.

NY Empire State confirms a slowdown with 3rd striaght new order decline and lowered forward expectations.

Business inventories confirms double digit price stagflation and classic channel stuffing.

Retail Sales Dec -0.4% vs prior +1% Full Report

Inside the number: Retail Sales ex-auto Dec -0.4% vs prior +1.7%. A "robust" economy witnessed by sequential declines in...

Department Stores -0.4%; Auto sales -0.4%; Gasoline -1.7%; Electronics -1.9%; Clothing -2%; Building Materials -2.9%.

This decline is without price increase adjustments!

PPI Dec -0.1% vs prior +3.2% Full Report

Inside the number: Intermediate goods -0.2% vs +3.7%; YOY +6.8%; Crude goods +1% vs +8.7%; YOY +20.6%.

Core PPI Dec +0.2% vs prior +0.4%. YOY PPI +6.3%; foods +7.4%; energy +18.4%.

From Page 2: Q4 annualized rate:

Finished goods +13.3%; consumer foods +9.4%; Intermediate goods +15%; materials for non durables +20.3%; Crude materials +59%.

NY Empire State Index Jan +9 vs prior +9.8 Full Report

Inside the number: New orders declining for a 3rd straight month, falling from 13 to ZERO.

Shipments 15 vs 20; Prices Paid 40 vs 35; Prices Received 18 vs 12; Employees 2 vs 5.

A negative outlook as looking forward six months, almost every category declined.

Business Inventories Nov +0.4% vs prior +0.1% Full Report

Inside the number: Business Sales +1.6% vs +0.9%; Manufacturing Sales +1.5% vs +1.2%; Inventories +0.8% vs +0.2%;

Retail Sales +1.2% vs ZERO; Inventories -0.1% vs +0.3%; Wholesale Sales +2.2% vs +1.4%; Inventories +0.6% vs ZERO.

Unadjusted for price changes, YOY Sales +8.7%; Manufacturing +6.5%; Retail +6%; Wholesale +14%.

Can you say stagflated prices and wholesale channel stuffing, I can.

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