Costco; Sears; Initial Claims; GDP
Summary: Headline reads... GDP growth more than estimated as trade deficit shrinks. Under the sheets...
3rd straight quarter of negative real GDP, trade deficit shrank on lower per unit consumption and imports as double digit stagflation raged.
Meanwhile, long term unemployment worsened hitting a new multi year high... and the markets cheered??
Costco & Sears...
On higher gasoline sales... Costco reported Q3 net income +32% on revenue +13% while same store sales +8%.
Sears reported a $53 million net loss vs prior year net income of $223 million.
Revenue -5.8% as same store sales slid 9.8% at Sears and 7.1% at Kmart. Sears should have gotten into gasoline sales years ago.
Initial Claims 05/24 +4K at 372K vs 368K Full Report
Inside the number: prior revised up 3K. 4 week MA -2.5K at 370.5K. Continuing unemployment +36K at 3.104M; 4 week MA +18.5K at 3.069M.
GDP-Prel. Q1 +0.9% vs Q4 +0.6% Full Report
Inside the number: Chain Deflator-Prel. Q1 +2.2 vs prior +2.3%. Who cares about this false ex food & energy number?
Skidding to a halt... from Table 1 Q1 vs Q4: durable goods -6.2 vs +2%; non durable -0.3 vs +1.2%; Goods & services... real exports +2.8 vs +6.5%.
Counting higher oil prices as John Q pulls back... real imports -2.6 vs -1.4%; final sales to domestic purchasers -0.1 vs +1.3%
Commercial real estate and capex fall into the hole with residential...
Real non residential fixed investment -0.2 vs +6%; non residential structures +1.1 vs +12.4%;
equipment & software -0.9 vs +3.1%; real residential fixed investment -25.5 vs -25.2%
Corporate profits at a loss... Table 12: Domestic Industry Profits -167.5 billion.
Corporate profit before tax -7.1% or -$133.3 billion vs Q4 +$0.2 billion; Table 11: after tax profit -8.1% vs 2007 Q1 -7.7%
Core industries decimated & emasculated... Appendix A Real GDP % change by quarter: Structures -12.6%; Motor Vehicles -12.3%; Farm Value Added -7.7%.
Drum roll please.. for double digit price stagflation from Table 4:
Price change % vs Q4: Exported goods +10.3%; Imports +12.5%; Imported goods +13.6%
Drum roll please.. for negative real growth from Table 2:
change in private inventories non farm +0.35%; government consumption +0.38%; housing operation electricity & gas services +0.22%.
Add em up for 0.95%, and subtract from 0.9% "growth" for real negative growth of -0.05%.
Services added 1.23%, what will happen as that sector rolls over?
3rd straight quarter of negative real GDP, trade deficit shrank on lower per unit consumption and imports as double digit stagflation raged.
Meanwhile, long term unemployment worsened hitting a new multi year high... and the markets cheered??
Costco & Sears...
On higher gasoline sales... Costco reported Q3 net income +32% on revenue +13% while same store sales +8%.
Sears reported a $53 million net loss vs prior year net income of $223 million.
Revenue -5.8% as same store sales slid 9.8% at Sears and 7.1% at Kmart. Sears should have gotten into gasoline sales years ago.
Initial Claims 05/24 +4K at 372K vs 368K Full Report
Inside the number: prior revised up 3K. 4 week MA -2.5K at 370.5K. Continuing unemployment +36K at 3.104M; 4 week MA +18.5K at 3.069M.
GDP-Prel. Q1 +0.9% vs Q4 +0.6% Full Report
Inside the number: Chain Deflator-Prel. Q1 +2.2 vs prior +2.3%. Who cares about this false ex food & energy number?
Skidding to a halt... from Table 1 Q1 vs Q4: durable goods -6.2 vs +2%; non durable -0.3 vs +1.2%; Goods & services... real exports +2.8 vs +6.5%.
Counting higher oil prices as John Q pulls back... real imports -2.6 vs -1.4%; final sales to domestic purchasers -0.1 vs +1.3%
Commercial real estate and capex fall into the hole with residential...
Real non residential fixed investment -0.2 vs +6%; non residential structures +1.1 vs +12.4%;
equipment & software -0.9 vs +3.1%; real residential fixed investment -25.5 vs -25.2%
Corporate profits at a loss... Table 12: Domestic Industry Profits -167.5 billion.
Corporate profit before tax -7.1% or -$133.3 billion vs Q4 +$0.2 billion; Table 11: after tax profit -8.1% vs 2007 Q1 -7.7%
Core industries decimated & emasculated... Appendix A Real GDP % change by quarter: Structures -12.6%; Motor Vehicles -12.3%; Farm Value Added -7.7%.
Drum roll please.. for double digit price stagflation from Table 4:
Price change % vs Q4: Exported goods +10.3%; Imports +12.5%; Imported goods +13.6%
Drum roll please.. for negative real growth from Table 2:
change in private inventories non farm +0.35%; government consumption +0.38%; housing operation electricity & gas services +0.22%.
Add em up for 0.95%, and subtract from 0.9% "growth" for real negative growth of -0.05%.
Services added 1.23%, what will happen as that sector rolls over?
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