Initial Claims; NAHB Housing; Net Foreign Inflows; Philly Fed; NY Empire; Industrial Production
Summary: A economic black hole has opened up and the market cheers?
Begging the question, does anyone really read the fine print on these reports?
Initial claims worsen as continuing unemployment hits its highest level since 2001 at over 3 million.
NAHB Housing Index after nine months at all time low shows despite all the cuts, the situation is worsening.
March Foreign TIC inflows showed a massive flight to safety in bonds and aversion to the dollar.
Philly Fed: still negative, continued weakness, widespread cost pressures, but with an improved outlook.
NY Empire Index: still deteriorating as business activity declined with margins getting cut and a subdued outlook for employment.
Industrial Production shows the emasculation continues as durable goods production has fallen almost 10%.
Initial Claims 05/10 +6K at 371K vs 365K Full Report
Inside the number: 4 week MA -1K at 365.75K. Continuing unemployment +28K at 3.060M; 4 week MA +15.25K at 3.017M.
NAHB Housing Index 19 vs 20 Full Report
Inside the number: Sandy Dunn NAHB President: "With the HMI hovering in the historically low two-point range that’s prevailed over the past nine months,
the message is very clear: The single-family housing market is still deteriorating."
NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders: "Despite the Federal Reserve’s concerted efforts to lower short-term interest rates, free up credit markets and shore up the national economy,
the housing market has shown no evidence of improvement thus far. In fact, conditions have continued to deteriorate in recent times."
TIC Net Foreign Purchases Mar $80.4B$ vs $64.9B Full Report
Inside the number: prior revised down from 72.4. Central banks picked up the slack for private investors 2.7 vs 35.7 B in Government agency bonds
while private investors 30.9 vs 17.4 B and central banks 28 vs -3.6 B fled to short term US Treasury notes.
Meanwhile a flight from the dollar was witnessed with -115.9 B change in dollar denominated liabilities
and -48.2 B Monthly Net TIC flows (-57.6 B for private investors.)
Philadelphia Fed May -15.6 vs -24.9 Full Report
Inside the number: Employment -1 vs vs -11 rising but its 4th negative reading in 5 months.
New orders increased but remained negative -3.7 vs -18.8. Current shipments 2.2 vs -8 its first positive reading in 5 months.
Continuing weakness indicated in unfilled orders & delivery times remaining negative. Prices paid still rising 52.8 vs 51.6 with prices received 31.6 vs 30.6.
Listening to Parrot CEO's? Polly sez, we've bottomed, the end is near... Future outlook improved 28.2 vs 13.7, its highest level in six months.
NY Empire State Index May -3.2 vs +0.6 Full Report
Inside the number: New orders down -0.5% vs Zero; shipments down 4.5 vs 17.5; prices paid up 69.5 vs 57.3; prices received down 15.2 vs 20.8.
A Subdued future outlook: new orders down 21 vs 33; shipments down 21 vs 26;
prices paid up 64 vs 61; prices received down 30 vs 34; average workweek down -5 vs 7; technology spending down 5 vs 10
Industrial Production Apr -0.7% vs +0.2% Full Report
Inside the number: Capacity Utilization Apr 79.7% vs 80.4%. Manufacturing -0.8%; ex auto -0.4% vs +0.3%;
Consumer goods -0.8 vs -0.4; Yoy -1.6%. Business equipment -1.1%;
Non industrial supplies -0.8% vs +0.3%; Yoy -2%. Construction -1.5% vs -0.5%; Yoy -4.7%; Durable goods -4.1% vs -2.1%; Yoy -9.5%.
Appliances, Furniture, Carpet -0.3% vs +0.5%; Yoy -11%. Motor vehicles & parts -8.2% vs -4.3%; Yoy -16.8%.
Begging the question, does anyone really read the fine print on these reports?
Initial claims worsen as continuing unemployment hits its highest level since 2001 at over 3 million.
NAHB Housing Index after nine months at all time low shows despite all the cuts, the situation is worsening.
March Foreign TIC inflows showed a massive flight to safety in bonds and aversion to the dollar.
Philly Fed: still negative, continued weakness, widespread cost pressures, but with an improved outlook.
NY Empire Index: still deteriorating as business activity declined with margins getting cut and a subdued outlook for employment.
Industrial Production shows the emasculation continues as durable goods production has fallen almost 10%.
Initial Claims 05/10 +6K at 371K vs 365K Full Report
Inside the number: 4 week MA -1K at 365.75K. Continuing unemployment +28K at 3.060M; 4 week MA +15.25K at 3.017M.
NAHB Housing Index 19 vs 20 Full Report
Inside the number: Sandy Dunn NAHB President: "With the HMI hovering in the historically low two-point range that’s prevailed over the past nine months,
the message is very clear: The single-family housing market is still deteriorating."
NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders: "Despite the Federal Reserve’s concerted efforts to lower short-term interest rates, free up credit markets and shore up the national economy,
the housing market has shown no evidence of improvement thus far. In fact, conditions have continued to deteriorate in recent times."
TIC Net Foreign Purchases Mar $80.4B$ vs $64.9B Full Report
Inside the number: prior revised down from 72.4. Central banks picked up the slack for private investors 2.7 vs 35.7 B in Government agency bonds
while private investors 30.9 vs 17.4 B and central banks 28 vs -3.6 B fled to short term US Treasury notes.
Meanwhile a flight from the dollar was witnessed with -115.9 B change in dollar denominated liabilities
and -48.2 B Monthly Net TIC flows (-57.6 B for private investors.)
Philadelphia Fed May -15.6 vs -24.9 Full Report
Inside the number: Employment -1 vs vs -11 rising but its 4th negative reading in 5 months.
New orders increased but remained negative -3.7 vs -18.8. Current shipments 2.2 vs -8 its first positive reading in 5 months.
Continuing weakness indicated in unfilled orders & delivery times remaining negative. Prices paid still rising 52.8 vs 51.6 with prices received 31.6 vs 30.6.
Listening to Parrot CEO's? Polly sez, we've bottomed, the end is near... Future outlook improved 28.2 vs 13.7, its highest level in six months.
NY Empire State Index May -3.2 vs +0.6 Full Report
Inside the number: New orders down -0.5% vs Zero; shipments down 4.5 vs 17.5; prices paid up 69.5 vs 57.3; prices received down 15.2 vs 20.8.
A Subdued future outlook: new orders down 21 vs 33; shipments down 21 vs 26;
prices paid up 64 vs 61; prices received down 30 vs 34; average workweek down -5 vs 7; technology spending down 5 vs 10
Industrial Production Apr -0.7% vs +0.2% Full Report
Inside the number: Capacity Utilization Apr 79.7% vs 80.4%. Manufacturing -0.8%; ex auto -0.4% vs +0.3%;
Consumer goods -0.8 vs -0.4; Yoy -1.6%. Business equipment -1.1%;
Non industrial supplies -0.8% vs +0.3%; Yoy -2%. Construction -1.5% vs -0.5%; Yoy -4.7%; Durable goods -4.1% vs -2.1%; Yoy -9.5%.
Appliances, Furniture, Carpet -0.3% vs +0.5%; Yoy -11%. Motor vehicles & parts -8.2% vs -4.3%; Yoy -16.8%.
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