Initial Claims 06/07; Business Inventories Apr; Import & Export Prices May; Retail Sales May
Summary: Initial claims worsen showing no slow down in the economic malaise...
Business inventories headline reads... inventories stock up for expected demand...
under the sheets... Yoy wholesale sales numbers build double digit on inflated prices.
Import & Export price headline reads... prices of imported goods rose less than expected...
under the sheets... confirming inventories, double digit stagflation worsens with the largest Yoy increase in the history of the index.
Retail sales headline reads... sales rose twice as much as forecast showing consumer resilence and raising rate increase concerns...
under the sheets... retail sales of durable goods are plunging as gasoline & food sales increases clearly demonstrate two things:
double digit stagflation and John Q pulling back on his spending.
Initial Claims 06/07 +25K at 384K vs 359K Full Report
Inside the number: prior revised up 2K. 4 week MA +2.5K at 371.5K; Continuing unemployment +58K at 3.139M; 4 week MA +16.5K at 3.099M
Business Inventories Apr +0.5% vs +0.2% Full Report
Inside the number:Total sales +1.4% vs +1.2%; Yoy +6.8%; Inventories Yoy +5.4%.
Manufacturing Sales +2.2% vs +1.1%; Yoy +5%; Inventories flat; Yoy +6%.
Wholesale +1.4% vs+1.8%; Yoy +12.7%; Inventories +1.3%; Yoy +8.1%
Retail +0.3% vs +0.5%; Yoy +2.8%; Inventories +0.4%; Yoy +2.5%
Import prices May +2.3% vs +2.4%. Full Report
Inside the number: Import Prices ex-oil May +0.5% vs +1.3%; however, petroleum imports +7.8%.
Yoy import prices +17.8% vs +16.3%; the largest increase in the history of the index, since 1982. Yoy Petroleum imports +68.8%.
Export Prices +0.3% vs +0.5%; exports ex-ag.+0.4% vs +0.7%; Ag exports 07 vs 06 +18.1%; YTD 08 vs 07 +33.3%; All exports Yoy +8%
We calmy repeat one of our mantras: ANYONE claiming stagflation is under double digits is a paid liar, a fool, or both.
Retail Sales May +1% vs +0.4% Full Report
Inside the number: Prior revised up from -1%. Retail Sales ex-auto +1.2% vs +1% - prior revised up from +0.5%.
A clear sign that gasoline prices are curtailing shopping trips: Non store retailers (on line or home ordering) Yoy +10%.
YTD durable; auto -4.6%; furniture -4.4%; building materials -3.2%; department stores -3%; non durable; grocery stores +7%; gasoline stations +19.7%
YOY durable; auto -7%; furniture -4.9%; building materials -3.2%; department stores -2.6%; non durable; grocery stores +6.8%; gasoline stations +13.8%
Business inventories headline reads... inventories stock up for expected demand...
under the sheets... Yoy wholesale sales numbers build double digit on inflated prices.
Import & Export price headline reads... prices of imported goods rose less than expected...
under the sheets... confirming inventories, double digit stagflation worsens with the largest Yoy increase in the history of the index.
Retail sales headline reads... sales rose twice as much as forecast showing consumer resilence and raising rate increase concerns...
under the sheets... retail sales of durable goods are plunging as gasoline & food sales increases clearly demonstrate two things:
double digit stagflation and John Q pulling back on his spending.
Initial Claims 06/07 +25K at 384K vs 359K Full Report
Inside the number: prior revised up 2K. 4 week MA +2.5K at 371.5K; Continuing unemployment +58K at 3.139M; 4 week MA +16.5K at 3.099M
Business Inventories Apr +0.5% vs +0.2% Full Report
Inside the number:Total sales +1.4% vs +1.2%; Yoy +6.8%; Inventories Yoy +5.4%.
Manufacturing Sales +2.2% vs +1.1%; Yoy +5%; Inventories flat; Yoy +6%.
Wholesale +1.4% vs+1.8%; Yoy +12.7%; Inventories +1.3%; Yoy +8.1%
Retail +0.3% vs +0.5%; Yoy +2.8%; Inventories +0.4%; Yoy +2.5%
Import prices May +2.3% vs +2.4%. Full Report
Inside the number: Import Prices ex-oil May +0.5% vs +1.3%; however, petroleum imports +7.8%.
Yoy import prices +17.8% vs +16.3%; the largest increase in the history of the index, since 1982. Yoy Petroleum imports +68.8%.
Export Prices +0.3% vs +0.5%; exports ex-ag.+0.4% vs +0.7%; Ag exports 07 vs 06 +18.1%; YTD 08 vs 07 +33.3%; All exports Yoy +8%
We calmy repeat one of our mantras: ANYONE claiming stagflation is under double digits is a paid liar, a fool, or both.
Retail Sales May +1% vs +0.4% Full Report
Inside the number: Prior revised up from -1%. Retail Sales ex-auto +1.2% vs +1% - prior revised up from +0.5%.
A clear sign that gasoline prices are curtailing shopping trips: Non store retailers (on line or home ordering) Yoy +10%.
YTD durable; auto -4.6%; furniture -4.4%; building materials -3.2%; department stores -3%; non durable; grocery stores +7%; gasoline stations +19.7%
YOY durable; auto -7%; furniture -4.9%; building materials -3.2%; department stores -2.6%; non durable; grocery stores +6.8%; gasoline stations +13.8%
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