Consumer Confidence; S&P Schiller Housing Price Index; New Home Sales July
Summary: Headline reads consumer confidence rises,
under the sheets... employment and present situation indexes both declined.
Headline reads New Home Sales rebound with record inventory decline. Under the sheets...
inventory bloat 22% above last year with sales down 35% and prices plunging as builders facing BK struggle to liquidate.
Headline reads Housing Price Index declines at slower rate. Under the sheets...
its no longer a correction, it's officially a bear market, record annual and quarterly declines with prices down on average over 20% from the 2006 peak.
Consumer Confidence Aug 56.9 vs 51.9 Full Report
Inside the number: Present situation index decreased 63.2 vs 65.8; those claiming business conditions are "bad" increased to 33.2% vs 32.6%.
Consumers' appraisal of the labor market has turned bleaker.
Those saying jobs are "hard to get" rose to 32% vs 30.2%, while those claiming jobs are "plentiful" declined to 13.1% vs 13.6%.
Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center: "Consumer confidence readings suggest that the economy remains stuck in neutral...
overall readings are still quite low by historical standards and it is still too early to tell if the worst is behind us."
S&P Schiller Housing Price Index Aug Full Report
Inside the number: a record Q2 decline of -15.4% vs Q1 -14.2%. Record annual declines; 10 city index -17%; 20 city -15.9%.
10 city index since June 06 peak -20.6%, so it's officially a bear market.
"Not one market is showing a positive return over the past 12 months and seven of the metro areas are reporting declines in excess of 20%."
New Home Sales Jul +2.4% at 515K vs 503K Full Report
Inside the number: June revised down from 530K. Unsold inventory down 5.6%, 10.1 vs 10.7 months; the largest decline since Nov 1963.
However, Yoy inventory +21.7% & Yoy sales -35% with median price plunging -6.3%; Yoy sales West -43%. YTD Sales West -36%; South -34%; MW -41%; NE -44%
The Nattering One muses... consumer confidence is in the toilet...
as the emasculated service based economy sinks further and job losses mount, expect further declines.
New homes inventory fell as cash strapped and BK bound builders liquidated, expect further liquidations and price declines.
New homes accounts for 15% of the housing market.Yesterdays existing home sales in which inventory balloned to an all time high, accounts for the other 85%.
With the fewest starts in 17 years, the economic engine called housing, which spurred 80% of all job growth from 2001 to present, is half dead.
HUD Secretary Steve Preston: "We have a ways to go before we start seeing a turnaround.
We'll be well into 2009 before we see some real energy in this market."
The S&P Schiller price index is now in bear market territory -20% from peak,
expect further declines, as halfway through our journey to the dark side are we.
under the sheets... employment and present situation indexes both declined.
Headline reads New Home Sales rebound with record inventory decline. Under the sheets...
inventory bloat 22% above last year with sales down 35% and prices plunging as builders facing BK struggle to liquidate.
Headline reads Housing Price Index declines at slower rate. Under the sheets...
its no longer a correction, it's officially a bear market, record annual and quarterly declines with prices down on average over 20% from the 2006 peak.
Consumer Confidence Aug 56.9 vs 51.9 Full Report
Inside the number: Present situation index decreased 63.2 vs 65.8; those claiming business conditions are "bad" increased to 33.2% vs 32.6%.
Consumers' appraisal of the labor market has turned bleaker.
Those saying jobs are "hard to get" rose to 32% vs 30.2%, while those claiming jobs are "plentiful" declined to 13.1% vs 13.6%.
Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center: "Consumer confidence readings suggest that the economy remains stuck in neutral...
overall readings are still quite low by historical standards and it is still too early to tell if the worst is behind us."
S&P Schiller Housing Price Index Aug Full Report
Inside the number: a record Q2 decline of -15.4% vs Q1 -14.2%. Record annual declines; 10 city index -17%; 20 city -15.9%.
10 city index since June 06 peak -20.6%, so it's officially a bear market.
"Not one market is showing a positive return over the past 12 months and seven of the metro areas are reporting declines in excess of 20%."
New Home Sales Jul +2.4% at 515K vs 503K Full Report
Inside the number: June revised down from 530K. Unsold inventory down 5.6%, 10.1 vs 10.7 months; the largest decline since Nov 1963.
However, Yoy inventory +21.7% & Yoy sales -35% with median price plunging -6.3%; Yoy sales West -43%. YTD Sales West -36%; South -34%; MW -41%; NE -44%
The Nattering One muses... consumer confidence is in the toilet...
as the emasculated service based economy sinks further and job losses mount, expect further declines.
New homes inventory fell as cash strapped and BK bound builders liquidated, expect further liquidations and price declines.
New homes accounts for 15% of the housing market.Yesterdays existing home sales in which inventory balloned to an all time high, accounts for the other 85%.
With the fewest starts in 17 years, the economic engine called housing, which spurred 80% of all job growth from 2001 to present, is half dead.
HUD Secretary Steve Preston: "We have a ways to go before we start seeing a turnaround.
We'll be well into 2009 before we see some real energy in this market."
The S&P Schiller price index is now in bear market territory -20% from peak,
expect further declines, as halfway through our journey to the dark side are we.
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