Ya Just Gotta Hang In There
A Naybob of Simian nature and major P&G holder writes...
Although all my own personal stock picks have absolutely tanked along with the credit crisis...
in the Big Picture it only matters what good old P&G does - "Ya just gotta hang in there"
The phrase in quotes, coming from a friend who is a financial adviser and a long term buy to hold advocate.
The Nattering One muses... While we do agree in principle on the long term buy to hold strategy in which "Ya Just Gotta Hang In There"...
it works only if you buy low and hold for divident's; and that timing is everything. Speaking of which...
Have you ever seen the tide go out for a tidal wave or tsunami?
Everyone looks down in amazement as the sand portion of the beach gets bigger and bigger.
Suddenly, the sky darkens, someone looks up and utters, oh my god! at the wall of water about to slam down and swallow them.
Your going to see alot of guys that are "just hangin in there", take a big header off their balconies in the next two years....
P&G, has been RAISING prices to offset rising energy and raw materials costs,
and cited favorable foreign exchange rates and double-digit sales growth in emerging markets.
P&G will be RAISING prices another 16% and is counting on consumer loyalty to counter household budget-tightening.
Exchange rate & emerging markets will not be enough to counter the next pullback in consumer spending on a global level
My personal feeling: P&G has taken its first downleg, however, the situation will deteriorate in the coming quarters.
Just look at what happened to Unilever net income this quarter -20%....
We went from market peak to correction in 7 weeks to bear market 8 months later,
the next downleg will make a 10% or 20% decline look small. Read that again...
Your best bet; if you didn't already, which I know you didn't...
see a professional and HEDGE your P&G positions or Sell into the strength of the current headfake.
Then pay the 15% tax, and sit and wait for the fixed income implosion to get higher yields in the fixed income market.
Or just do as your "professional" did last time (2000), already down $2 million?; fougetabboutit....
whats another $3 or $5 million loss? it's only a paper loss, mere chump change, right? I don't think so...
Although all my own personal stock picks have absolutely tanked along with the credit crisis...
in the Big Picture it only matters what good old P&G does - "Ya just gotta hang in there"
The phrase in quotes, coming from a friend who is a financial adviser and a long term buy to hold advocate.
The Nattering One muses... While we do agree in principle on the long term buy to hold strategy in which "Ya Just Gotta Hang In There"...
it works only if you buy low and hold for divident's; and that timing is everything. Speaking of which...
Have you ever seen the tide go out for a tidal wave or tsunami?
Everyone looks down in amazement as the sand portion of the beach gets bigger and bigger.
Suddenly, the sky darkens, someone looks up and utters, oh my god! at the wall of water about to slam down and swallow them.
Your going to see alot of guys that are "just hangin in there", take a big header off their balconies in the next two years....
P&G, has been RAISING prices to offset rising energy and raw materials costs,
and cited favorable foreign exchange rates and double-digit sales growth in emerging markets.
P&G will be RAISING prices another 16% and is counting on consumer loyalty to counter household budget-tightening.
Exchange rate & emerging markets will not be enough to counter the next pullback in consumer spending on a global level
My personal feeling: P&G has taken its first downleg, however, the situation will deteriorate in the coming quarters.
Just look at what happened to Unilever net income this quarter -20%....
We went from market peak to correction in 7 weeks to bear market 8 months later,
the next downleg will make a 10% or 20% decline look small. Read that again...
Your best bet; if you didn't already, which I know you didn't...
see a professional and HEDGE your P&G positions or Sell into the strength of the current headfake.
Then pay the 15% tax, and sit and wait for the fixed income implosion to get higher yields in the fixed income market.
Or just do as your "professional" did last time (2000), already down $2 million?; fougetabboutit....
whats another $3 or $5 million loss? it's only a paper loss, mere chump change, right? I don't think so...
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