Market Soapbox 09/16/08
TUE, dead cat bounce, DJIA +142 on high volume with nice internals. All UP.
Bonds down BIG 10 yr +15bps 3.54, $ up vs 1.4199€ & up BIG vs 106.49y, WTI down $93.56 gold down $786.5, TED spread up HUGE +32bps 2.13%.
SP500 1192, gap down 1169, rise to close 1214. NDX 1705, gap down 1683, rise to 1739, close 1724.
MON: BofA bails out Merrill Lynch at $29 per share and Lehman files the largest BK of all time. The 6th largest DJIA decline in history.
Overnight, Nikkei -5.0%; Hang Seng -5.4%; FTSE -3.6%; DAX -2% CAC -2.3%.
Today, Q3 Earnings: Goldman Sachs -72%; Morgan Stanley -3%.
Dell warns of further softening in demand; HP to layoff 25,000; Adobe revenue +4.2%; net -6.8%.
On lower oil under $92; CPI -0.1%; ex food & energy +0.2%. Real inflation gauge: #1 supermarket Kroger revenue +12%.
How do we know? Darden Restaurants revenue +21%; net -23%. Best Buy revenue +12%; net -19%.
Net Foreign Purchases shrink to $6.1 vs $53.4 billion. Fed rate steady at 2%... the NDX & SP500 put in new lows.
NY Empire index worsened for 3rd month at -4.9; prices paid & received at record highs...
employment negative; future conditions fell sharply to their lowest since Sept 2001.
Can't stop this...Yesterday, $80 billion, today, New York Fed with a $50 billion repo infusion.
The run on the bank vis a vis shareholder liquidation continues unabated with the mother of all insurance bailouts...
the Fed taking an 80% interest in AIG with an $85 billion bridge loan.
The TED SPREAD (measure of inter bank trust) has spiked 80 basis points in 2 days... worse yet...
Overnight LIBOR jumped from 3.33 to 6.44%, the largest in 7 years, 41% of prime ARMS are tied to LIBOR... here kitty, kitty... splat.
Often wrong, but never in doubt, this is the Nattering Naybob and you're not.
Bonds down BIG 10 yr +15bps 3.54, $ up vs 1.4199€ & up BIG vs 106.49y, WTI down $93.56 gold down $786.5, TED spread up HUGE +32bps 2.13%.
SP500 1192, gap down 1169, rise to close 1214. NDX 1705, gap down 1683, rise to 1739, close 1724.
MON: BofA bails out Merrill Lynch at $29 per share and Lehman files the largest BK of all time. The 6th largest DJIA decline in history.
Overnight, Nikkei -5.0%; Hang Seng -5.4%; FTSE -3.6%; DAX -2% CAC -2.3%.
Today, Q3 Earnings: Goldman Sachs -72%; Morgan Stanley -3%.
Dell warns of further softening in demand; HP to layoff 25,000; Adobe revenue +4.2%; net -6.8%.
On lower oil under $92; CPI -0.1%; ex food & energy +0.2%. Real inflation gauge: #1 supermarket Kroger revenue +12%.
How do we know? Darden Restaurants revenue +21%; net -23%. Best Buy revenue +12%; net -19%.
Net Foreign Purchases shrink to $6.1 vs $53.4 billion. Fed rate steady at 2%... the NDX & SP500 put in new lows.
NY Empire index worsened for 3rd month at -4.9; prices paid & received at record highs...
employment negative; future conditions fell sharply to their lowest since Sept 2001.
Can't stop this...Yesterday, $80 billion, today, New York Fed with a $50 billion repo infusion.
The run on the bank vis a vis shareholder liquidation continues unabated with the mother of all insurance bailouts...
the Fed taking an 80% interest in AIG with an $85 billion bridge loan.
The TED SPREAD (measure of inter bank trust) has spiked 80 basis points in 2 days... worse yet...
Overnight LIBOR jumped from 3.33 to 6.44%, the largest in 7 years, 41% of prime ARMS are tied to LIBOR... here kitty, kitty... splat.
Often wrong, but never in doubt, this is the Nattering Naybob and you're not.
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