Market Observations 10/24/08
Resistance: DJIA 9296 (3600DMA); SP500 985 (4250DMA); NAZ 1775 (4250DMA); NDX 1350 (4250DMA)
Support: DJIA 7925 (4650DMA); SP500 840 (5400DMA); NAZ 1485 (5400DMA); NDX 1140 (5200DMA)
SP500 908, gap down 895, drop to 852, bounce to close 876. NDX 1239, gap down 1149, rise to 1229, fade to close 1202.
FRI, consumer confidence all time largest decline; Building permits SFR starts both hit a 27 year low.
MON:, 50% of all California homes sold in the last month had been foreclosed upon in the previous 12 months; median sales price -33%.
TUE: Libor and Ted spread pulling back; Kerkorian dumping all his Ford stock; 107 companies have reported; average profit declines are 27%.
WEN: Wachovia $24 billion loss, which included a $19 billion writedown and $119 billion portfolio of troubled loans. They will take down an already shaky Wells.
THU: Initial claims +15K to 478K; Yoy FHFA Home prices -5.9%, the biggest decline since 1991, when the data starts. Q3 Yoy Foreclosure filings +71.
FRI: Overnight... Europe -5%; China -8%; Japan -10%; Korea -11%; Brazil -13% & Russia -14% before both halted trading...
preopening stock index futures plunged to daily limit; which halts trading; with contracts on the Dow -550 points and S&P -60 points.
Good news Libor & TED spread falling... One week after posting the biggest one week increase since April 1987,
mortgage rates staged the largest one week decline since May 1995; 30 yr fixed down from 6.74 to 6.32%.
Good news II Crude plunges below $65 on its way to $50.YTD $ index +11.5%; yet due to the carry trade unwind.... Yen +8.5% vs $ this week, at a 13 year high.
Good news III... Existing Home Sales Sep +5.5% @ 5.18M vs 4.91M on 40% foreclosure sales. Yoy sales +1.4%...
Bad news?? Median price -9%; inventory still high 9.9 vs 10.6 months.
#1 Ohio bank, National City lost more than $3 billion during the past five quarters, and its stock plunged 88%; -25% today...
#1 Pennsylvania bank PNC will bailout National with $7.7 billion in Treasury funding.
Intraday, the Vix hit an all time high 89. We were wrong: Yes...
Dry goods & oil still have to be shipped, but like everything else, the rates were artificially inflated.
It Hit the Fan: China 300 mid 07-08 -70%; 00-02 NAZ - 78%; S&P Homebuilders 05-08 -82%; DJIA 29-32 -89%; Baltic Dry Goods Shipping Rate Index last 5 months -90%.
About to knock the fan down... The nation's 3,000 property & casualty insurers...
suffered a combined 53% decline in profits during the first half of 2008,.
On their knees begging... PMI providers MGIC; PMI; Radian; Triad; AIG United...
#1 & #2 U.S. bond insurer, MBIA & Ambac meeting with Treasury for a bailout to avoid BK...
So far in October, $10 Trillion of stock "value" erased; accounting for 33% of the total erased this year $30 Trillion.
10/15: NDX 1130 could provide a bounce on the way down to 975. Today NDX multi yr low 1149. Close enough for another head fake?
Much like supposed housing "values", these "cheap" stocks are an illusion. And keep your eyes peeled to the sky for a brand name... Don't cry for me ARGENTINA.
If your not out of either yet, your mortgage better be small & you need to reevaluate your sanity or pain threshold.
This trainwreck has derailed, flipped over 3 times and is about to strike a tree and burst into flames.
Often wrong, but never in doubt, this is the Nattering Naybob and you're not.
Support: DJIA 7925 (4650DMA); SP500 840 (5400DMA); NAZ 1485 (5400DMA); NDX 1140 (5200DMA)
SP500 908, gap down 895, drop to 852, bounce to close 876. NDX 1239, gap down 1149, rise to 1229, fade to close 1202.
FRI, consumer confidence all time largest decline; Building permits SFR starts both hit a 27 year low.
MON:, 50% of all California homes sold in the last month had been foreclosed upon in the previous 12 months; median sales price -33%.
TUE: Libor and Ted spread pulling back; Kerkorian dumping all his Ford stock; 107 companies have reported; average profit declines are 27%.
WEN: Wachovia $24 billion loss, which included a $19 billion writedown and $119 billion portfolio of troubled loans. They will take down an already shaky Wells.
THU: Initial claims +15K to 478K; Yoy FHFA Home prices -5.9%, the biggest decline since 1991, when the data starts. Q3 Yoy Foreclosure filings +71.
FRI: Overnight... Europe -5%; China -8%; Japan -10%; Korea -11%; Brazil -13% & Russia -14% before both halted trading...
preopening stock index futures plunged to daily limit; which halts trading; with contracts on the Dow -550 points and S&P -60 points.
Good news Libor & TED spread falling... One week after posting the biggest one week increase since April 1987,
mortgage rates staged the largest one week decline since May 1995; 30 yr fixed down from 6.74 to 6.32%.
Good news II Crude plunges below $65 on its way to $50.YTD $ index +11.5%; yet due to the carry trade unwind.... Yen +8.5% vs $ this week, at a 13 year high.
Good news III... Existing Home Sales Sep +5.5% @ 5.18M vs 4.91M on 40% foreclosure sales. Yoy sales +1.4%...
Bad news?? Median price -9%; inventory still high 9.9 vs 10.6 months.
#1 Ohio bank, National City lost more than $3 billion during the past five quarters, and its stock plunged 88%; -25% today...
#1 Pennsylvania bank PNC will bailout National with $7.7 billion in Treasury funding.
Intraday, the Vix hit an all time high 89. We were wrong: Yes...
Dry goods & oil still have to be shipped, but like everything else, the rates were artificially inflated.
It Hit the Fan: China 300 mid 07-08 -70%; 00-02 NAZ - 78%; S&P Homebuilders 05-08 -82%; DJIA 29-32 -89%; Baltic Dry Goods Shipping Rate Index last 5 months -90%.
About to knock the fan down... The nation's 3,000 property & casualty insurers...
suffered a combined 53% decline in profits during the first half of 2008,.
On their knees begging... PMI providers MGIC; PMI; Radian; Triad; AIG United...
#1 & #2 U.S. bond insurer, MBIA & Ambac meeting with Treasury for a bailout to avoid BK...
So far in October, $10 Trillion of stock "value" erased; accounting for 33% of the total erased this year $30 Trillion.
10/15: NDX 1130 could provide a bounce on the way down to 975. Today NDX multi yr low 1149. Close enough for another head fake?
Much like supposed housing "values", these "cheap" stocks are an illusion. And keep your eyes peeled to the sky for a brand name... Don't cry for me ARGENTINA.
If your not out of either yet, your mortgage better be small & you need to reevaluate your sanity or pain threshold.
This trainwreck has derailed, flipped over 3 times and is about to strike a tree and burst into flames.
Often wrong, but never in doubt, this is the Nattering Naybob and you're not.
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