Economic Reports 02/22/09
TIC Foreign Capital Inflows Dec +$34.8B vs -$21.7B
Foreigners continue to unload agency securities but nevertheless are once again net buyers of U.S. securities.
Foreigners did sell a net $37.5 billion in long-term agencies for a third straight month of heavy liquidation.
Foreigners were net buyers of long-term Treasuries, at $15 billion, with Mainland China widening its holdings to 22.3% of foreign Treasury holders.
Foreigners were big buyers of U.S. corporate bonds. When including short-term securities, foreign net purchases jump to $74 billion in December.
Export & Import Prices Jan
Export +0.5% vs -2.3%; Yoy -3.6% vs -3.2%. Import -1.1% vs -4.2%; Yoy -12.5% vs -9.3%.
Ex petroleum import prices -0.8%; Ex ag export prices flat as ag prices jumped +6.2%; prices at the pumps are down, but people still gotta eat.
Producer Price Index PPI Jan +0.8% vs -1.9%
Yoy -1.3% vs -1.2%; Core +0.4% vs +0.2%; Yoy +4.2% vs +4.3%. Headline inflation was pumped up by a jump in energy which increased 3.7% after a 9.1% fall in December.
Consumer Price Index CPI Jan +0.3% vs -0.7%
Consumer price inflation made a u-turn, ending three months of decline in the overall index. Yoy -0.2% vs -0.1%; Core +0.2% vs 0%; Yoy +1.7% vs +1.7%.
Headline inflation was led upward by energy in January. Energy rebounded a monthly 1.7%, with gasoline rising 6%. Food edged up a modest 0.1%; Medical care rose 0.4%.
It looks like a lot of discounting by retailers took place in December rather than January and despite the worsening recession, inflation pressures remain.
NY Empire State Manufacturing Survey Feb -34.7 vs -22.2
New orders -30.5 vs -22.5; both readings are record lows as the recession is widening to involve more firms and is deepening in its intensity.
Employment readings are contracting further, down 13 points to -39.0 as factory layoffs and shutdowns in the region have accelerated this month.
Six-month expectations have broken lower. Other readings show that price pressures are still in reverse with sharp contractions underway in both input prices and output prices.
Philly Fed Feb -41.3 vs -24.3
First the Empire State report and now the Philadelphia Fed's data show intensifying contraction, results that point to a step lower for the nation's manufacturing sector.
Shipments, orders and unfilled orders also showed deterioration. Price readings, for both inputs and outputs, show increasing month-to-month contraction.
But weakness, unfortunately was centered in employment which fell nearly 7 points to -45.3.
NAHB/WF Housing Index Feb 9 vs 8
The slightest sign of life is evident in the housing market index which inched up to 9 from 8. Buyer traffic showed improvement, up 3 points to 11.
But there was also more trouble as the index for prospective sales fell back 2 points to a record low 15.
The report was definitely downbeat saying the results show no improvement as foreclosures flood the market.
Housing Starts Jan 466K vs 550K and Permits 521K vs 549K
Starts continued to free fall -16.8% following a 14.5% plummet in December. The multifamily component fell a hefty 27.9% while the single-family component fell 12.2%.
Yoy Jan -56.2% and SFR's were down 53.7%.
Permits also showed no signed of stabilizing, posting a 4.8% decrease in January, after a December fall of 11.1%.
Permits Yoy -50.5%; while SFR's were down 50.4%.
Industrial Production Jan -1.8% vs -2%
Industrial production continued to contract with broad based weakness.
The all-important manufacturing component decreased a sharp 2.5% after plunging 2.9% in December.
The latest drop was led by a huge 23.4% plummet in motor vehicle assemblies for the month.
On a year-on-year basis, industrial production in January slipped to down 10% from down 8.2% in December.
The recession in manufacturing remains quite deep and on average will likely be far worse in Q1 than Q4.
FOMC Minutes Jan
The biggest news out of the minutes of the January 27-28 FOMC meeting was the revisions to the economic forecasts by the Fed governors and regional bank presidents.
The forecast contraction in GDP for 2009 was raised significantly.
"Participants’ projections for the change in real GDP in 2009 had a central tendency of -1.3 to -0.5%,
compared with the central tendency of -0.2 to +1.1% for their projections last October.
In explaining these downward revisions, participants referred to the further intensification of the financial crisis and its effect on credit and wealth,
the waning of consumer and business confidence, the marked deceleration in global economic activity, and the weakness of incoming data on spending and employment.“
The forecast for the unemployment rate jumped significantly:
"Participants’ projections for the average unemployment rate during the fourth quarter of 2009 had a central tendency of 8.5 to 8.8%,
markedly higher than last December’s actual unemployment rate of 7.2%."
Initial Claims 02/14 +4K at 627K
Weekly jobless claims data are clearly pointing at another month of extremely deep contraction for the labor market. This level is 42K higher than mid-month January.
4 week MA +12K at 619K. A mid-month look at the 4-week averages shows an even worse comparison with a more than 100K gain.
Continuing claims are likewise pointing to trouble for February.
They continue to push out to new records and indicate that jobseekers are now out of work for a longer period of time.
Continuing claims, rose 170K to 4.987 million and now are moving to the 5 million level.
The Nattering One muses... If perception is reality, then today's reality call is double digit unemployment.
U6 Total Unemployed 15.4%; From a year ago, unemployment jumped to 10.4% from 6.4% in the category of professional and business services.
DJIA at its worst in 6 years, the S&P 500 is a better indicator of the market’s direction because...
it has almost 17 times more companies than the Dow average and uses market value, not share prices, to determine company weightings.
Should the SP500 break the 11 year low support line at 750 on a closing basis for 3 days; we have two words for you; if you haven't had the brains to already; GET OUT.
By June we expect 9.2% unemployment with 2 million more unemployed; another tsunami of foreclosures driving real estate prices down an additional 30% this year...
while the SP500 will tank another 33% to 550 vaporizing more pension plans and 401Ks.
Oh Nattering One is that the bottom? Perhaps not, but it might be close enough to start nibbling. Nibbling on what? Is there a safe harbor in this tsunami?
As previously recommended in these pages... Hold gold and load up on high yield corp bonds which are paying double digits.
But only those that hold very little debt; with no plans in incur any additional debt in the next two years;
and enough income stream to weather the storm for the next three years. But what about Real Estate? My realtor says it's the best time to buy.
In my best Coach Jim Mora (aka The Playoffs!): The Real Estate! I don't even wanna talk about the Real Estate! Don't even think about the Real Estate!
That and greed is what got us in this shit storm to begin with and WILL NOT under ANY circumstances lead us or get us out of it.
No amount of huckstering, conning, speculation and slick salesmanship with suffice. The realtors are using asking prices and ignoring auction sales in their BPO's!
Its the same con, all over again. The ubitquitous speculating "investors" need to be taken down and wiped out in todo. And they will be en masse on this next downleg.
Billionaires are committing suicide because they can't imagine living the life of a normal person. Cry me a river while we line em up and give em lead poisoning.
Correcting six years of Republican rape and two years of Democratic folly; aka digging out of the shit hole that BUSH built will be a herculean task.
Working an honest day at an honest domestic durable job with an honest wage; that produces a tangible product will lead us out. Nothing more and nothing less.
Often wrong, but never in doubt, this is the Nattering Naybob, and you're not!
Foreigners continue to unload agency securities but nevertheless are once again net buyers of U.S. securities.
Foreigners did sell a net $37.5 billion in long-term agencies for a third straight month of heavy liquidation.
Foreigners were net buyers of long-term Treasuries, at $15 billion, with Mainland China widening its holdings to 22.3% of foreign Treasury holders.
Foreigners were big buyers of U.S. corporate bonds. When including short-term securities, foreign net purchases jump to $74 billion in December.
Export & Import Prices Jan
Export +0.5% vs -2.3%; Yoy -3.6% vs -3.2%. Import -1.1% vs -4.2%; Yoy -12.5% vs -9.3%.
Ex petroleum import prices -0.8%; Ex ag export prices flat as ag prices jumped +6.2%; prices at the pumps are down, but people still gotta eat.
Producer Price Index PPI Jan +0.8% vs -1.9%
Yoy -1.3% vs -1.2%; Core +0.4% vs +0.2%; Yoy +4.2% vs +4.3%. Headline inflation was pumped up by a jump in energy which increased 3.7% after a 9.1% fall in December.
Consumer Price Index CPI Jan +0.3% vs -0.7%
Consumer price inflation made a u-turn, ending three months of decline in the overall index. Yoy -0.2% vs -0.1%; Core +0.2% vs 0%; Yoy +1.7% vs +1.7%.
Headline inflation was led upward by energy in January. Energy rebounded a monthly 1.7%, with gasoline rising 6%. Food edged up a modest 0.1%; Medical care rose 0.4%.
It looks like a lot of discounting by retailers took place in December rather than January and despite the worsening recession, inflation pressures remain.
NY Empire State Manufacturing Survey Feb -34.7 vs -22.2
New orders -30.5 vs -22.5; both readings are record lows as the recession is widening to involve more firms and is deepening in its intensity.
Employment readings are contracting further, down 13 points to -39.0 as factory layoffs and shutdowns in the region have accelerated this month.
Six-month expectations have broken lower. Other readings show that price pressures are still in reverse with sharp contractions underway in both input prices and output prices.
Philly Fed Feb -41.3 vs -24.3
First the Empire State report and now the Philadelphia Fed's data show intensifying contraction, results that point to a step lower for the nation's manufacturing sector.
Shipments, orders and unfilled orders also showed deterioration. Price readings, for both inputs and outputs, show increasing month-to-month contraction.
But weakness, unfortunately was centered in employment which fell nearly 7 points to -45.3.
NAHB/WF Housing Index Feb 9 vs 8
The slightest sign of life is evident in the housing market index which inched up to 9 from 8. Buyer traffic showed improvement, up 3 points to 11.
But there was also more trouble as the index for prospective sales fell back 2 points to a record low 15.
The report was definitely downbeat saying the results show no improvement as foreclosures flood the market.
Housing Starts Jan 466K vs 550K and Permits 521K vs 549K
Starts continued to free fall -16.8% following a 14.5% plummet in December. The multifamily component fell a hefty 27.9% while the single-family component fell 12.2%.
Yoy Jan -56.2% and SFR's were down 53.7%.
Permits also showed no signed of stabilizing, posting a 4.8% decrease in January, after a December fall of 11.1%.
Permits Yoy -50.5%; while SFR's were down 50.4%.
Industrial Production Jan -1.8% vs -2%
Industrial production continued to contract with broad based weakness.
The all-important manufacturing component decreased a sharp 2.5% after plunging 2.9% in December.
The latest drop was led by a huge 23.4% plummet in motor vehicle assemblies for the month.
On a year-on-year basis, industrial production in January slipped to down 10% from down 8.2% in December.
The recession in manufacturing remains quite deep and on average will likely be far worse in Q1 than Q4.
FOMC Minutes Jan
The biggest news out of the minutes of the January 27-28 FOMC meeting was the revisions to the economic forecasts by the Fed governors and regional bank presidents.
The forecast contraction in GDP for 2009 was raised significantly.
"Participants’ projections for the change in real GDP in 2009 had a central tendency of -1.3 to -0.5%,
compared with the central tendency of -0.2 to +1.1% for their projections last October.
In explaining these downward revisions, participants referred to the further intensification of the financial crisis and its effect on credit and wealth,
the waning of consumer and business confidence, the marked deceleration in global economic activity, and the weakness of incoming data on spending and employment.“
The forecast for the unemployment rate jumped significantly:
"Participants’ projections for the average unemployment rate during the fourth quarter of 2009 had a central tendency of 8.5 to 8.8%,
markedly higher than last December’s actual unemployment rate of 7.2%."
Initial Claims 02/14 +4K at 627K
Weekly jobless claims data are clearly pointing at another month of extremely deep contraction for the labor market. This level is 42K higher than mid-month January.
4 week MA +12K at 619K. A mid-month look at the 4-week averages shows an even worse comparison with a more than 100K gain.
Continuing claims are likewise pointing to trouble for February.
They continue to push out to new records and indicate that jobseekers are now out of work for a longer period of time.
Continuing claims, rose 170K to 4.987 million and now are moving to the 5 million level.
The Nattering One muses... If perception is reality, then today's reality call is double digit unemployment.
U6 Total Unemployed 15.4%; From a year ago, unemployment jumped to 10.4% from 6.4% in the category of professional and business services.
DJIA at its worst in 6 years, the S&P 500 is a better indicator of the market’s direction because...
it has almost 17 times more companies than the Dow average and uses market value, not share prices, to determine company weightings.
Should the SP500 break the 11 year low support line at 750 on a closing basis for 3 days; we have two words for you; if you haven't had the brains to already; GET OUT.
By June we expect 9.2% unemployment with 2 million more unemployed; another tsunami of foreclosures driving real estate prices down an additional 30% this year...
while the SP500 will tank another 33% to 550 vaporizing more pension plans and 401Ks.
Oh Nattering One is that the bottom? Perhaps not, but it might be close enough to start nibbling. Nibbling on what? Is there a safe harbor in this tsunami?
As previously recommended in these pages... Hold gold and load up on high yield corp bonds which are paying double digits.
But only those that hold very little debt; with no plans in incur any additional debt in the next two years;
and enough income stream to weather the storm for the next three years. But what about Real Estate? My realtor says it's the best time to buy.
In my best Coach Jim Mora (aka The Playoffs!): The Real Estate! I don't even wanna talk about the Real Estate! Don't even think about the Real Estate!
That and greed is what got us in this shit storm to begin with and WILL NOT under ANY circumstances lead us or get us out of it.
No amount of huckstering, conning, speculation and slick salesmanship with suffice. The realtors are using asking prices and ignoring auction sales in their BPO's!
Its the same con, all over again. The ubitquitous speculating "investors" need to be taken down and wiped out in todo. And they will be en masse on this next downleg.
Billionaires are committing suicide because they can't imagine living the life of a normal person. Cry me a river while we line em up and give em lead poisoning.
Correcting six years of Republican rape and two years of Democratic folly; aka digging out of the shit hole that BUSH built will be a herculean task.
Working an honest day at an honest domestic durable job with an honest wage; that produces a tangible product will lead us out. Nothing more and nothing less.
Often wrong, but never in doubt, this is the Nattering Naybob, and you're not!
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