Economic Reports 03/08/09
Personal Income & Spending Jan +0.4% vs +0.2%
Under the sheets... Special factors, including January Federal pay raises partially offsetting a special downward adjustment for loss of bonuses in many industries.
Excluding special factors, personal income rose only 0.2%. Within personal income, wages and salaries actually declined 0.2% after a 0.4% fall in December.
Consumer spending made a temporary comeback in January, rebounding 0.6% after a 1% drop the previous month.
Prior to January, personal consumption had declined for six months in a row. Cheaper gas did the trick.
The headline PCE price index rose 0.2%, following a 0.5% decline in December. Meanwhile, the core PCE price index edged up 0.1%
ISM Index Mar 35.8 vs 35.6
Readings on new and unfilled orders are stable with production improving. One good sign is a dip back in the customer inventory index, to 51.0 from 55.5.
Employment is definitely not improving, instead contracting further, down nearly 4 points to 26.1...
and pointing to yet another month of intense contraction in the manufacturing component .
Firms, as they do during downturns, are cutting back on their workforces even as conditions stabilize.
Auto Sales Feb 6.4M vs 6.8M
This time last year sales were at 11.6M. This component makes up 17% of total retail sales.
Pending Home Sales Jan 80.4 vs 87.7
A very steep -7.7% decline in January pointing to weak home sales data for February and March. Yoy rate still contracting at -6.4%.
Construction Spending Jan -3.3% vs -2.4%
Headline falling at a faster pace – sharply worse than expected led by a sharp 4.3% plummet in private nonresidential outlays.
Yoy overall construction outlays were down 9.1% in January, compared to down 6.7% in December.
Under the sheets.. Total Private Outlays -3.7%; Yoy -14.1%; Private Residential -2.9%; Yoy -28%; SFR -9.3%; Yoy -46%.
ISM Services Feb 41.6 vs 42.9
Accelerating contraction through the bulk of the economy. The business activity index fell a very steep 4 points to 40.2 from January's 44.2.
The employment index yp 3 full points to 37.3 as more stock brokers became waiters and bar tenders. 13th straight of contraction for the index.
Factory Orders Jan -1.9% vs -4.9%
Nondurable orders +0.5% for a rare gain, one tied to higher fuel prices. Under the sheets...
Orders for durable goods -4.5% as orders for capital goods showed very severe declines with a 1.7% drop in shipments.
Businesses cut current production and lower their outlook for future production.
The factory sector his literally fallen off a cliff since early in the fourth quarter. Yoy total factory shipments -15.6%; total orders -19.2%.
Productivity and Costs Q4 -0.4% vs +3.2%
Productivity and labor costs in the fourth quarter were revised sharply—and for the worse.
Unit labor costs were jacked up to 5.7 from an initial estimate of a 1.8% annualized increase.
The output component was revised down to an 8.7% drop from the previously reported 5.5% annualized decline.
The latest productivity and costs report reflects dueling cuts in output and labor costs as businesses are trying to keep costs down as demand continues to drop.
Companies have been cutting labor costs but not fast enough. More layoffs are ahead as firms work to catch up with falling output.
Initial Claims -31K at 639K
4 week MA +2K at 641K. Continuing claims -14K; 4 week MA +77K to a record 5.011Million.
The unemployed are having a hard time finding jobs and continuing claims is proof.
Despite the improvement in today's report, the outlook for the labor market is not good. Businesses continue to announce giant layoffs.
ADP Employment Feb -697K vs -522K
The numbers show that the recession has spread agressively to the small business sector.
Business size: small -262K; medium -314K; large -121K; goods producing -338K; service providing -359K.
Manufacturing -219K (36 months of contraction); construction -114K (25 months & over 1 million lost since Jan 07)
Non Farms Jobs Unemployment Feb -651K vs -655K
The employment situation for February was ugly but to see how bad it was you had to get past the first headlines.
The report shows a very bleak labor sector and points to further retrenchment in personal income and consumer spending
Jan revised down -57K from -598K; Dec revised down -104K to -681K for another net loss of -161K jobs.
The civilian unemployment rate surged further to the highest in 25 years at 8.1% from 7.6% in January.
Service industries, which include banks, insurance companies, restaurants and retailers, subtracted 375K.
In this sector, the largest job losses were seen in professional & business services, down 180K, and in trade & transportation, down 124K.
The goods-producing sector also continued its downtrend, falling 276K. Manufacturing and construction declined by 168K and 104K, respectively.
Losses have now exceeded 600,000 for three straight months, the first time that’s happened since collection of the data began in 1939.
Under the sheets... Special factors, including January Federal pay raises partially offsetting a special downward adjustment for loss of bonuses in many industries.
Excluding special factors, personal income rose only 0.2%. Within personal income, wages and salaries actually declined 0.2% after a 0.4% fall in December.
Consumer spending made a temporary comeback in January, rebounding 0.6% after a 1% drop the previous month.
Prior to January, personal consumption had declined for six months in a row. Cheaper gas did the trick.
The headline PCE price index rose 0.2%, following a 0.5% decline in December. Meanwhile, the core PCE price index edged up 0.1%
ISM Index Mar 35.8 vs 35.6
Readings on new and unfilled orders are stable with production improving. One good sign is a dip back in the customer inventory index, to 51.0 from 55.5.
Employment is definitely not improving, instead contracting further, down nearly 4 points to 26.1...
and pointing to yet another month of intense contraction in the manufacturing component .
Firms, as they do during downturns, are cutting back on their workforces even as conditions stabilize.
Auto Sales Feb 6.4M vs 6.8M
This time last year sales were at 11.6M. This component makes up 17% of total retail sales.
Pending Home Sales Jan 80.4 vs 87.7
A very steep -7.7% decline in January pointing to weak home sales data for February and March. Yoy rate still contracting at -6.4%.
Construction Spending Jan -3.3% vs -2.4%
Headline falling at a faster pace – sharply worse than expected led by a sharp 4.3% plummet in private nonresidential outlays.
Yoy overall construction outlays were down 9.1% in January, compared to down 6.7% in December.
Under the sheets.. Total Private Outlays -3.7%; Yoy -14.1%; Private Residential -2.9%; Yoy -28%; SFR -9.3%; Yoy -46%.
ISM Services Feb 41.6 vs 42.9
Accelerating contraction through the bulk of the economy. The business activity index fell a very steep 4 points to 40.2 from January's 44.2.
The employment index yp 3 full points to 37.3 as more stock brokers became waiters and bar tenders. 13th straight of contraction for the index.
Factory Orders Jan -1.9% vs -4.9%
Nondurable orders +0.5% for a rare gain, one tied to higher fuel prices. Under the sheets...
Orders for durable goods -4.5% as orders for capital goods showed very severe declines with a 1.7% drop in shipments.
Businesses cut current production and lower their outlook for future production.
The factory sector his literally fallen off a cliff since early in the fourth quarter. Yoy total factory shipments -15.6%; total orders -19.2%.
Productivity and Costs Q4 -0.4% vs +3.2%
Productivity and labor costs in the fourth quarter were revised sharply—and for the worse.
Unit labor costs were jacked up to 5.7 from an initial estimate of a 1.8% annualized increase.
The output component was revised down to an 8.7% drop from the previously reported 5.5% annualized decline.
The latest productivity and costs report reflects dueling cuts in output and labor costs as businesses are trying to keep costs down as demand continues to drop.
Companies have been cutting labor costs but not fast enough. More layoffs are ahead as firms work to catch up with falling output.
Initial Claims -31K at 639K
4 week MA +2K at 641K. Continuing claims -14K; 4 week MA +77K to a record 5.011Million.
The unemployed are having a hard time finding jobs and continuing claims is proof.
Despite the improvement in today's report, the outlook for the labor market is not good. Businesses continue to announce giant layoffs.
ADP Employment Feb -697K vs -522K
The numbers show that the recession has spread agressively to the small business sector.
Business size: small -262K; medium -314K; large -121K; goods producing -338K; service providing -359K.
Manufacturing -219K (36 months of contraction); construction -114K (25 months & over 1 million lost since Jan 07)
Non Farms Jobs Unemployment Feb -651K vs -655K
The employment situation for February was ugly but to see how bad it was you had to get past the first headlines.
The report shows a very bleak labor sector and points to further retrenchment in personal income and consumer spending
Jan revised down -57K from -598K; Dec revised down -104K to -681K for another net loss of -161K jobs.
The civilian unemployment rate surged further to the highest in 25 years at 8.1% from 7.6% in January.
Service industries, which include banks, insurance companies, restaurants and retailers, subtracted 375K.
In this sector, the largest job losses were seen in professional & business services, down 180K, and in trade & transportation, down 124K.
The goods-producing sector also continued its downtrend, falling 276K. Manufacturing and construction declined by 168K and 104K, respectively.
Losses have now exceeded 600,000 for three straight months, the first time that’s happened since collection of the data began in 1939.
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